1896 replies to this topic

[spanky123]

I hope that this general trend towards renting accommodations instead of ownership means that the money being saved is being invested into retirements accounts instead of being spent. If nothing else home ownership is at least some measure of a nest egg. I worry what will happen when this generation of tenants retires and all they have to live on is CPP and OAS.

[rjag]

. But what it is doing is unfairly pushing a serious issue onto another council's lap while the current councillors backing the ban look like they're making a difference.

 

So in their opinion they believe they are making a difference? or are thye simply playing to an audience that doesnt understand supply and demand pricing.

 

I totally feel for those folks that are paying artificially low rents, its not their fault, they are the victims here. I was just through a duplex with a 3rd suite off Maplewood thinking of putting an offer in and the rents are 60-70% of what they should be. The asking is just under $1million and there were at least 6 showings while we were there so it will go prob $100k over asking. The combined rents show $3600/month and it should be closer to $4500/month. It currently nets $2500/month which is a very poor return on a $millionplus property less than a 2.5cap

 

The tenants will be the victims here as I foresee all 3 being displaced over the next year.

[spanky123]

^ The question is can you get the higher rents though? On Craigslist there are 750+ rentals available. The perceived issue is that there are very few below $1,000 a month. Lots of supply for more expensive units.

[rjag]

^ The question is can you get the higher rents though? On Craigslist there are 750+ rentals available. The perceived issue is that there are very few below $1,000 a month. Lots of supply for more expensive units.

Yup all 3 suites are under priced for location and quality. 

 

https://www.realtor....Columbia-V8P1W5

[Nparker]

I hope that this general trend towards renting accommodations instead of ownership means that the money being saved is being invested into retirements accounts instead of being spent...

[Matt R.]

How would those tenants be displaced?

Matt.

[Bingo]

Here is the Vancouver survey to see how they are trying to cope.

https://www.talkvanc...4q&fromdetect=1

[VicHockeyFan]

How is this for a concept.  The 0.5% occupancy rate will never change, unless we have a massive economic downturn.

 

Here's why....    because nowadays, landlords do not take out costly classified advertising to rent out a suite.  They take out free classified ads, with all kinds of photos and information.  A potential renter today can view dozens or more units before they even contact a single landlord.  You used to have to make a dozen phone calls and make a dozen apartment visits, very trying on your time.

 

But now landlords can adjust their rents up and down daily, "show" the suite to hundreds of people a day, online.  Which really helps them adjust up or down their asking rent.  To the point where they can essentially guarantee they will rent it, if they go down to a certain point.

 

And nowadays, because it's so easy to find apartments online, those that are not even considering giving their notice on their current place, might be shopping anyway.

 

If you think about it, if you take an old-school rental apartment building, the property manager would in the past, just tell the resident manager that they should rent out suite #316 for $765/mo.  And that's what they would list it for in the newspaper classified ad, month after month.  Maybe if it sat vacant for 2 months, then they'd look at dropping the price slightly, and adjust the classified ad.  Surely nobody is doing that anymore.

 

I also think the methodology for estimating the vacancy rate is flawed.  It relies very heavily on measuring the old legacy apartments, that are stuck on rent controls, so less likely to have turn-over.  And when the do have one, it's a lower-end priced unit, the type most in demand.

 

This is what the CMHC has for us:

 

1992 1.5

1993 1.8

1994 1.9

1995 3.3

1996 4.1 < "the internet arrives"

1997 3.5

1998 3.8

1999 3.6

2000 1.8

2001 0.5

2002 1.1

2003 1.1

2004 0.6 < Craigslist arrives in Canada

2005 0.5

2006 0.5

2007 0.5

2008 0.5

2009 1.4

2010 1.5

2011 2.1

2012 2.7

2013 2.8

2014 1.5

2015 0.5

2016 0.5

Edited by VicHockeyFan, 20 June 2017 - 11:07 AM.

[VicHockeyFan]

As I say...

 

TallGuy, on 20 Jun 2017 - 11:42 AM, said:

The vacancy rate is based on the count in purpose built rentals...

 

 

Edited by VicHockeyFan, 20 June 2017 - 11:18 AM.

[VicHockeyFan]

METHODOLOGY FOR RENTAL MARKET SURVEY

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) conducts the Rental Market Survey (RMS) every year in April and October to estimate the relative strengths in the rental market. The survey is conducted on a sample basis in all urban areas with populations of 10,000 or more, and targets only privately initiated structures with at least three rental units, which have been on the market for at least three months.

 

The survey collects market rent, available and vacant unit data for all sampled structures. Data is collected using a combination of telephone interviews and site visits, and information is obtained from the owner, manager, or building superintendent. The survey is conducted during the first two weeks of April/October, and the results reflect market conditions at that time.

 

CMHC’s Rental Market Survey provides a snapshot of vacancy and availability rates, and average rents in both new and existing structures. There also exists a measure for the change in rent that is calculated based on existing structures only. The estimate is based on structures that were common to the survey sample for both the previous year and the current Rental Market Surveys.

 

The change in rent in existing structures is an estimate of the change in rent that the landlords charge and removes compositional effects on the rent level movement due to new buildings, conversions, and survey sample rotation.

 

The rent levels in new and existing structures are also published. While the per cent change in rents in existing structures published in the reports are statistically significant, changes in rents that one might calculate based on rent levels in new and existing structures may or may not be statistically significant.

 

 

 

Rental Apartment Structure: Any building containing three or more rental units, of which at least one unit is not ground oriented. Owner-occupied units are not included in the rental building unit count.

 

Rental Row (Townhouse) Structure: Any building containing three or more rental units, all of which are ground oriented with vertical divisions. Owner-occupied units are not included in the rental building unit count. These row units in some centres are commonly referred to as townhouses.

 

Vacancy: A unit is considered vacant if, at the time of the survey, it is physically unoccupied and available for immediate rental.

 

 

https://www03.cmhc-s.../RmsMethodology

Edited by VicHockeyFan, 20 June 2017 - 11:22 AM.

[dasmo]

We don't need an economic downturn. All we need is another oil boom and people will vacate here in a heartbeat to make some money.... 

[VicHockeyFan]

We don't need an economic downturn. All we need is another oil boom and people will vacate here in a heartbeat to make some money.... 

 

1992 1.5

1993 1.8

1994 1.9

1995 3.3

1996 4.1 < "the internet arrives" $30 crude

1997 3.5

1998 3.8 $18 crude

1999 3.6

2000 1.8 $38 

2001 0.5

2002 1.1 $42

2003 1.1

2004 0.6 < Craigslist arrives in Canada $48

2005 0.5

2006 0.5 $89

2007 0.5

2008 0.5 $156

2009 1.4

2010 1.5 $90

2011 2.1

2012 2.7 $92

2013 2.8

2014 1.5 $103

2015 0.5

2016 0.5 $47

[dasmo]

Exactly. Oil going down vacancy rate goes down. Oil going up vacancy rate goes up. With the appropriate lag. Graph it.

[lanforod]

Exactly. Oil going down vacancy rate goes down. Oil going up vacancy rate goes up. With the appropriate lag. Graph it.

 

I think it matches economic downturn more though, which oil also tracks. 

[aastra]

 

All we need is another oil boom and people will vacate here in a heartbeat to make some money....

 

That's another one of the perils of having so many retirees. At any moment they can bug out en masse to go look for work somewhere else.

[Awaiting Juno]

The data on this needs a massive upgrade to reflect reality and is one of the reasons why policy based on current evidence is likely to be deeply flawed.  A methodology more similar to what is used in labour force statistics is likely to be more helpful.  I want to know the "suite participation rate" in both the month-to-month rental market, the short-term vacation market, and the number of suites that exist but do not participate in either.  It would also be helpful to know what the market rates are for different types of rental accommodations....right now policy is flying blind on outdated data that reflects how things might have been 30 years ago.

Edited by Awaiting Juno, 20 June 2017 - 02:09 PM.

[VicHockeyFan]

The data on this needs a massive upgrade to reflect reality and is one of the reasons why policy based on current evidence is likely to be deeply flawed.  A methodology more similar to what is used in labour force statistics is likely to be more helpful.  I want to know the "suite participation rate" in both the month-to-month rental market, the short-term vacation market relative, and the number of suites that exist but do not participate in either.  It would also be helpful to know what the market rates are for different types of rental accommodations....right now policy is flying blind on outdated data that reflects how things might have been 30 years ago.

 

It's problematic, for sure.  We all know that we have barely any newly-built purpose-built rentals.  The "affordable" stuff, that they can count, is old.  And full, of course.

[tedward]

I hope that this general trend towards renting accommodations instead of ownership means that the money being saved is being invested into retirements accounts instead of being spent.

 

Pretty sure you are hoping in vain.

[Bingo]

That's another one of the perils of having so many retirees. At any moment they can bug out en masse to go look for work somewhere else.

 

I agree if they have nothing to do don't do it here.

[aastra]

 

...if they have nothing to do don't do it here.

 

If a city grows too quickly it will deter people from moving there.