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#321 lanforod

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 12:53 PM

^ I suspect that the percentage of children has gone up in the past 3 years too. Not really concerned about 30 years from now, if anything the percentages will be fairly similar.



#322 pherthyl

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 04:29 PM

Exactly. Victoria had higher housing prices, lower wages, fewer employment opportunities, and a higher cost of living for as long as some people can remember.

We tend to forget that Victoria has always had some of the most expensive real estate in the country and this is not just a recent phenomenon. In the most recent run-up in values the old folks were telling us they had seen this before, a few times even. Newcomers were convinced we were in a bubble and wouldn't accept the reality that we'd skyrocket then plateau for an extended period but that's exactly what happened just as the old folks said it would. Why? Because there's demand for our real estate in good times and in bad and there's always money to go around in a region that has more wealth than what's created locally.

 

Except you can never get away from the fact that in the end, people have to buy the real estate with money they earned.   So you have two options, either prices continue the pattern (which means we're about due for another period of doubling in prices) and only people bringing in wealth will be buying, or prices stay in a range that working families can afford.   By the way, I think we can all agree that a city where the residents can't afford the real estate is anything but vibrant. 

 

Prices rose to where they are because credit was relaxed and interest rates came down, allowing the average joe to leverage themselves to degrees they never could before.  As long as interest rates stay low, unemployment stays stable, and the government stops tightening the screws on CMHC those prices can be sustained.  



#323 LJ

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 07:08 PM

Except you can never get away from the fact that in the end, people have to buy the real estate with money they earned.   So you have two options, either prices continue the pattern (which means we're about due for another period of doubling in prices) and only people bringing in wealth will be buying, or prices stay in a range that working families can afford.   By the way, I think we can all agree that a city where the residents can't afford the real estate is anything but vibrant. 

 

Prices rose to where they are because credit was relaxed and interest rates came down, allowing the average joe to leverage themselves to degrees they never could before.  As long as interest rates stay low, unemployment stays stable, and the government stops tightening the screws on CMHC those prices can be sustained.  

So why were Vancouver prices "unaffordable" 30 years ago. Is Vancouver not vibrant? San Francisco? New York? These are all places people want to live, prices go up. People rent or commute to where prices are more affordable. Nothing new here folks.

 

Oh, and it is not going to go away.


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#324 Mike K.

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 08:20 PM

Higher rates just encourage people to save more and for a longer period. And by the time rates double or even triple the vast majority of families will have adjusted over that ten year period to assume the cost of a costlier mortgage.

 

$600,000 house scenarios @ 25 year amortization:

 

$500,000 mortgage, $100,000 DP, 2.9% rate: $1,873/month

$450,000 mortgage, $150,000 DP, 2.9% rate: $1,404/month

$450,000 mortgage, $150,000 DP, 4.9% rate: $1,728/month

$450,000 mortgage, $150,000 DP, 6.9% rate: $2,082/month

$450,000 mortgage, $150,000 DP, 9.9% rate: $2,663/month

$400,000 mortgage, $200,000 DP, 9.9% rate: $1,775/month

 

It takes all of four years for a couple putting away $3,000/month to save up $150,000. And what's crazy is if you require a $400,000 mortgage for a $600,000 home you're actually paying a lower mortgage at 9.9% than you would have buying a $600,000 home with $100,000 down at 2.9%.


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#325 Nparker

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 08:23 PM

...It takes all of four years for a couple putting away $3,000/month to save up $150,000.

Must be nice to have $3000 leftover after expenses each month. 



#326 Mike K.

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Posted 22 April 2014 - 08:31 PM

Plenty of couples are able to put away far more than that each month. But then that Bimer and three vacations per year eat into that a little bit ;)

 

I dunno, you can rent a swanky downtown 2BR condo for $1,500/month. Two couples earning a combined $7,000 after taxes can easily put away $3,000 if they have a financial goal in mind. If you can't swing $3k, put away $2k and save for a couple more years.


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#327 pherthyl

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:43 AM

Plenty of couples are able to put away far more than that each month. But then that Bimer and three vacations per year eat into that a little bit ;)

 

I dunno, you can rent a swanky downtown 2BR condo for $1,500/month. Two couples earning a combined $7,000 after taxes can easily put away $3,000 if they have a financial goal in mind. If you can't swing $3k, put away $2k and save for a couple more years.

 

Except only 38% of Canadians were able to save anything at all last year, so that scenario that only reflects a small minority.  http://genworth.q4we...it/default.aspx

 

Heck only half even pay off their credit card every month.   


Edited by pherthyl, 23 April 2014 - 06:44 AM.


#328 MarkoJ

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 06:59 AM

Except only 38% of Canadians were able to save anything at all last year, so that scenario that only reflects a small minority.  http://genworth.q4we...it/default.aspx

 

Heck only half even pay off their credit card every month.   

 

But that small minority is driving some of the sales in desirable areas.  In the last few months I've had two young couples (late 20s and early 30s) buy expensive homes in Oak Bay and Fairfield.  Both couples had excellent professions with household incomes well north of $200,000 and both had more than 20% down.  Both also bought at $300k-500k under their max approval.

 

Those who can't pay off their credit card every month are a non-factor in terms of driving real estate consumption.


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#329 Mike K.

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 07:01 AM

Given the situation is how it is then we should be surprised people have down payments in today's market where you still need that $50-$100k DP to buy a house.

Pushing savings a little further won't be a problem. And every year that passes is a year closer to retirement for more boomers. More retirees = more demand for Vancouver Island housing.

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#330 dasmo

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:13 AM

Pushing savings a little further won't be a problem. And every year that passes is a year closer to retirement for more boomers. More retirees = more demand for Vancouver Island housing.

Especially now that the rest of Canada is going up. Easier to buy here if your Calgary home nets you more...
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#331 jklymak

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:22 AM

Except you can never get away from the fact that in the end, people have to buy the real estate with money they earned.   So you have two options, either prices continue the pattern (which means we're about due for another period of doubling in prices) and only people bringing in wealth will be buying, or prices stay in a range that working families can afford.   By the way, I think we can all agree that a city where the residents can't afford the real estate is anything but vibrant. 

 

Prices rose to where they are because credit was relaxed and interest rates came down, allowing the average joe to leverage themselves to degrees they never could before.  As long as interest rates stay low, unemployment stays stable, and the government stops tightening the screws on CMHC those prices can be sustained.  

 

Another reason SFHs in Fairfield and Oak Bay double in value every 15 years is that there are fewer and fewer of them, or if they are still called an SFH, they really have a basement suite.  Those big old houses that were SFHs 40 years ago are now triplexes.  



#332 Mike K.

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 08:24 AM

That's another good point. We never factored in revenue from rental suites. A suite in an urban home, especially a nice one, is always in demand.

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#333 Nparker

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 10:22 AM

...SFHs in Fairfield and Oak Bay...if they are still called an SFH, [since] they really have a basement suite.  Those big old houses that were SFHs 40 years ago are now triplexes.  

I think this is an interesting point and not just in the case of the grander homes in Fairfield and Oak Bay. I am sure many houses in more suburban neighbourhoods like Gordon Head sport income suites. If the only way in which a family can own a home is to have a long-term income suite, are these truly Single Family Homes any more?



#334 jklymak

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Posted 23 April 2014 - 12:19 PM

^ Not really, but they show up as SFHs in the statistics, whereas 30 years ago suites were less common.   



#335 MarkoJ

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:47 AM

Monday, April 28, 2014 8:00am

MTD April
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 564 615
New Listings: 1,374 1,408
Active Listings: 4,394 4,585

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year


Edited by MarkoJ, 28 April 2014 - 07:48 AM.

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#336 Mike K.

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:52 AM

It's going to be tight. If we slip won't this be the first time in a long while?

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#337 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 07:59 AM

It's going to be tight. If we slip won't this be the first time in a long while?

 

No, it'll go over.  Always more will happen last week of the month, deals are written to go unconditional by month's end.  


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#338 MarkoJ

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 08:20 AM

It will definitely be over.


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#339 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 09:03 AM

Here's an odd question Marko, is there any part of the country where listings, compared to sales is higher than others?  Or listings compared to total homes in that area.  What I mean is, do people in Calgary or Newfoundland really like to sell or try to sell their homes, moreso than people in other areas?

 

I note that we have 4k listings, in an area that has maybe 100k homes (just making this number up).  So like 4% of the stock is up for sale.

 

So now to ask more dumb questions, what percentage of listed homes actually sell in the first 120 days or whatever the most common listing time is?  I know that's a little hard to measure as some listings that are getting old will be cancelled, then re-listed (usually at a lower price) in order to look more attractive.  Rather than keep lowering the price of one that's getting aged.


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#340 MarkoJ

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Posted 28 April 2014 - 01:33 PM

Here's an odd question Marko, is there any part of the country where listings, compared to sales is higher than others?  Or listings compared to total homes in that area.  What I mean is, do people in Calgary or Newfoundland really like to sell or try to sell their homes, moreso than people in other areas?

 

I note that we have 4k listings, in an area that has maybe 100k homes (just making this number up).  So like 4% of the stock is up for sale.

 

So now to ask more dumb questions, what percentage of listed homes actually sell in the first 120 days or whatever the most common listing time is?  I know that's a little hard to measure as some listings that are getting old will be cancelled, then re-listed (usually at a lower price) in order to look more attractive.  Rather than keep lowering the price of one that's getting aged.

 

1. I don't think so....we are probably at the bottom of the pile.  For example, check out Calgary's stats for March 2014 then compare with ours.

 

Calgary

 

Total Sales: 2,484

Active Listings: 3,231

Days on Market: 27

 

2.  Difficult to measure.  For example, this month the average days on market for a SOLD property is 59 not including re-listings.  If you factor in re-lists probably north of 65 days on market?


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