2697 replies to this topic

[lanforod]

Not much inventory out there. Wow.

[MarkoJ]

Not much inventory out there. Wow.

 

Lowest it has been in 10 years.

[jonny]

So will we see a dramatic increase in SFH construction? Where will that be? Royal Bay? Triangle Mountain?

[Mike K.]

Expect to see a lot more construction in and around the southern Cowichan Valley and Sooke. If you haven't driven north of the Malahat in a while next time you pass the Bamberton turnoff you'll notice a large swath of land has been cleared in preparation for a subdivision. Around Shawnigan you'll also see quite a bit of activity.

 

To get into a home in the urban core and all the way up to North Saanich you're looking at $650k for something half decent. That's not doable for a lot of people, but in Shawnigan/Cowichan $450,000 buys you a lot more house, you have a lower cost of living and your children do not grow up around chronic street issues, crime and the rest of the joys that our urban core gives us.

[Mike K.]

The discussion on housing values and commuting has been moved to the Victoria home prices and housing values discussion 

[lanforod]

Getting back on track, Marko, what do you predict will happen this year with VREB sales and inventory, as well as pricing?

[Mike K.]

"Unless we see a sudden inventory increase, there will be considerable upwards pressure on prices in 2016 with the constant stream of interest we are seeing," Juras said, adding that 2016 should be a good year for homeowners looking to downsize, move to a new home or cash in on real-estate investments.

 

http://victoria.citi...state-industry/

[LeoVictoria]

Here is the automated projection I've been working on...  It is based on past market performance during similar market conditions.

 

"December Market Summary

The market in Greater Victoria is warm. This means that the market favours sellers and prices are expected to rise above the rate of inflation. There are currently 4.2 months of inventory (MOI) which is very low for this time of year.

In the last year, prices for median single family homes have risen by $29,000 (5%) to$585,000 while prices for median condos have risen by $4,400 (2%) to $263,450.

If current market conditions prevail, you should expect the median single family home price to increase at a rate of about $45,000 (8%) annually.

 

 

http://househuntvict...intsummary.html

 

 

My opinion on this, the market is still improving from current conditions so the projection above is a lower bound.   I expect double digit price increases in 2016 in the core for single family homes.

[Mike K.]

Double digit? Yikes, hold on to your hats.

Now I REALLY feel sorry for all of the people who sat around waiting for the bubble to burst nearly 10 years ago.

[MarkoJ]

Getting back on track, Marko, what do you predict will happen this year with VREB sales and inventory, as well as pricing?

 

I think inventory will remain on the lower side of things, but will increase YOY for Dec 2016.  I think we'll continue to see upward pressure on SFH prices in the core, but not double digit gains.  My best guess is 3 to 6% and I think condos and townhomes will be in the 1 to 3% range.  Just my two cents. 

 

We will have a really good idea of how the market will shape up come March 1st numbers.

[MarkoJ]

Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:20am:

Jan Jan
2016 2015
Net Unconditional Sales: 103 351
New Listings: 254 1,027
Active Listings: 2,379 3,283

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[MarkoJ]

Will blow last year’s January out of the water.

Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:55am:

Jan Jan
2016 2015
Net Unconditional Sales: 225 351
New Listings: 468 1,027
Active Listings: 2,399 3,283

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[Nparker]

 

Will blow last year’s January out of the water.

At this rate by at least 50 sales.

[lanforod]

It helps that its a 5 weekend month, right?

[Mike K.]

A neat way to visualize the data

 

[MarkoJ]

wholy crap that is slick

[MarkoJ]

It helps that its a 5 weekend month, right?

 

Amount of business days in a month is more important than weekends (properties typically don't go unconditional on weekends due to financing) so majority of sales firm up on business days.

[lanforod]

Amount of business days in a month is more important than weekends (properties typically don't go unconditional on weekends due to financing) so majority of sales firm up on business days.

Firm up/sale closing, sure, but doesn't more of the buyers legwork happen on weekends, when they have more time?

[nagel]

Firm up/sale closing, sure, but doesn't more of the buyers legwork happen on weekends, when they have more time?

Wouldn't that influence future months more due to delayed closing?

[MarkoJ]

Firm up/sale closing, sure, but doesn't more of the buyers legwork happen on weekends, when they have more time?

 

Firm means conditions are removed.  Closing means property changes hands.  The VREB reports sales when contract become unconditional (not when the sale closes).

 

Basically an extra weekend means stronger sales number for the following month (which would have more business days).  The deals being written up on weekends would be going unconditional 7 to 10 business days later in the following month, on a business day.