5833 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

I spoke with mortgage brokers.

[Citified.ca]

Virtually all of downtown Victoria's condo projects currently underway are sold-out or have limited remaining inventory.

Not mentioned specifically in the article are developments like Legato, which sold out last year, and Cityzen, which sold out quietly in the spring.

 

Pre-sale condo inventory cheat sheet for downtown Victoria's red-hot real-estate market

http://victoria.citi...-estate-market/

[PPPdev]

The canary in the coal mine is Langford...I have heard that pre-sales contracts with financing closing post January 1, 2018 are already seeing quite a few people walk away. 

 

[Mike K.]

At which projects and which units are being dumped, and how many?

 

Would someone who threw down $25,000 or more in a down payment just suddenly give up and ...walk away?

 

Does that sound like a reasonable thing to do months before the new stress test is introduced and depending on when the project completes, a year or so from their closing date?

[Mike K.]

Someone who just got scared off by the stress test

 

a) must have already had plans to put 20%+ down otherwise a stress test would have been required as of last year

b) has at least 2.5 months to keep saving towards an even higher deposit

c) likely has much more than 2.5 months to save towards an even higher deposit

d) has (in virtually all cases) the ability to assign their unit to another buyer, i.e. there's no need to run

 

My sense is if someone has suddenly backed out after putting down a deposit of at least 10% then the stress test isn't the real reason behind their decision. There's more to it, but now the stress test can play as the scapegoat.

[VicHockeyFan]

There is a coal mine in Langford?

[johnk]

There is a coal mine in Langford?

Canaries, too, apparently. Who knew?

[Bingo]

There is a coal mine in Langford?

 

The district of Langford, which has hummed along under the din of constant construction for the past several years, will add a little more noise to the mix this fall as an 869-unit complex starts to come out of the ground. 

Toronto-based Liberty Ridge Homes is about to start work on the first phase of its four-phase Aqua project at the western edge of Langford Lake, a project the developer credits to the work of Langford’s council in getting the word out that the region is open for business.

Young said they have had a lot of success in attracting developers and establishing the infrastructure (schools, recreation facilities and improved-if-not-perfect transportation links) needed for the growing community, but his focus is now on bringing jobs to Langford.

http://www.timescolo...area-1.23068624

[tjv]

Anyone want to take a guess where housing pricing will be in one year?  Lets say Nov 1, 2017 to Nov 1, 2018

 

I am guessing 15% increase

[lanforod]

I'm guessing flat.

[Mike K.]

Flat, with properties on the Westshore dipping down to 10% from 2017 levels.

[RFS]

Anything to back that up? I don’t see it going anywhere but up both in Victoria and up the island overall.

[tjv]

Mine is a pure guess for the percentage, but I see it going up based on the low inventory and significant increases in construction costs that have to get passed on.  Weren't we at another all time record last month?

[VicHockeyFan]

Up 14%. We are not getting less attractive and people from away are having more more money than ever before.

[Mike K.]

The stress test is going to push buyers towards less costlier properties. Also, condos are going to become far more attractive to a greater pool of buyers.

Within the next year we’re also likely to see another 25 point interest rate increase from the Feds. We could even seen 50 points by early 2019 but I suspect the stress test will kill more than a 25 point increase.

[lanforod]

I'm simply basing flat on history. Victoria historically drives up a lot then stays relatively flat for several years.

The feds and province are both trying to cool the markets too, which should counteract the high demand a bit. Demand has already cooled a lot compared to the past 2 years. I suspect we'll be up 1000 listings in a year or so too.

[LJ]

New Zealand has just passed a law prohibiting foreigners from buying existing housing in an attempt to cool their market and allow residents to purchase.

Vancouver is thinking it would be a good idea so you can bet our triumvirate will think it's a good idea as well.

 

In Vancouver they avoided the tax by forming a local company and then the company purchases the house, so I would expect the same would happen in NZ.

 

It surprises me that NZ only did it on existing houses not pre-sales but then I am not familiar with the NZ market, maybe there are no real building booms, pre-sales. 

[Bingo]

New Zealand has just passed a law prohibiting foreigners from buying existing housing in an attempt to cool their market and allow residents to purchase.

Vancouver is thinking it would be a good idea so you can bet our triumvirate will think it's a good idea as well.

 

In Vancouver they avoided the tax by forming a local company and then the company purchases the house, so I would expect the same would happen in NZ.

 

It surprises me that NZ only did it on existing houses not pre-sales but then I am not familiar with the NZ market, maybe there are no real building booms, pre-sales. 

 

That's what I like about the Kiwi's, they know how to stay ahead in the count.

[rjag]

In Australia they've had a law that foreigners can only buy new builds for a few years, hasnt made much difference

[nerka]

Flattish (+ or - 5%) over the next year. Rising interest rates, stress test and potentially new provincial measures to "address speculation".  That doesn't all add up to a strongly rising market IMO.