5846 replies to this topic

[lanforod]

I have to admit to not really following the 'race' at all, and further, to leaning towards Chong. However, CBC is describing Scheer as a 'social conservative' - which, I think, is a really poor direction for the CPC.  Guns, God, and Gay marriage just don't have the attraction for increasing numbers of people as they once did... 

 

ETA: Bring back the 'red tories' of yore, and they'll increase their attraction to a much wider subset of the population.

 

He is, yes. However, like Harper, he has said he doesn't want to open those debates either, primarily because half of the CPC would revolt (abortion, gay marriage, etc.). He isn't that different from Harper, actually, a good comparison. 

Edited by lanforod, 28 May 2017 - 01:46 PM.

[jonny]

Scheer is basically Harper with a younger, smilier, friendlier face.

The CPC essentially voted to maintain the status quo (but barely). I must admit, as a Bernier guy, I was much more disappointed than I expected I would be. Scheer ran the most boring campaign possible. He didn't propose really any changes from the party's existing direction.

[57WestHills]

The demographics of "safe voting" are shifting away from the Conservatives generally. If the next election is 2019 it'll be the first, CBC tells me, that baby boomers won't be the majority of eligible voters. Albertans seem to be moving more and more Conservative - but, this generally speaking seems contrary to the rest of the country. Sheer seems pretty politically smart from my casual Googling. But he doesn't seem very exciting.

Some of Trudeau's broken promises are potentially catastrophic I think; but, if the CPC is boring and continues to campaign on what they're not rather than what they are it'll be the NDP's time to see if they can have a second orange crush in my opinion.

Predicting a Federal election two years in advance is obviously a stupid Internet thing only someone lacking a functional mind would do given one party doesn't have a leader in place and ones had a leader for two days. And the mandate isn't even at fifty percent. So with that, Liberal majority for me. But weaker.

Edited by 57WestHills, 28 May 2017 - 02:44 PM.

[VicHockeyFan]

^ Well said.  Orange Crush 2.0 unlikely I think.  They need a leader first.

[jonny]

Margaret Wente did a a good write up on Scheer in the Globe and Mail, including why he's likely to never be Prime Minister.

 

 

The Conservatives were smart to reject Kevin O’Leary, the celebrity carpetbagging phony, and the slick libertarian Maxime Bernier. Both are dividers, not uniters. They’re too arrogant and cocky. They sure as hell are not relatable. After Stephen Harper, the party was desperate for someone they could warm to. Mr. Scheer fills the bill. Not only that, he feels like family.

 

https://www.theglobe...rticle35146272/

[jonny]

^ Well said.  Orange Crush 2.0 unlikely I think.  They need a leader first.

 

I expect the NDP to go into the far left wilderness again after the failures of the moderate Mulcair.

[nerka]

Margaret Wente did a a good write up on Scheer in the Globe and Mail, including why he's likely to never be Prime Minister.

 

Not often I like a Wente article but that one was relatively spot on.  2019 is the Liberals to lose. Still life is unpredictable, so this far out you'd have to give the Conservatives at least a 1/3 chance IMO. So I'm glad they have elected a relatively solid candidate even if he isn't one I am likely to vote for.

[jonny]

Scheer is solid. Not my #1 choice, but solid. He will be really hard for the vast majority of the electorate to hate, for whatever that's worth. I think he has a really good chance of regaining some of the suburban seats Harper lost in 2015. The party will be solidly united behind him.

 

But yeah, the Liberals are one large scandal or economic upheaval away from being in trouble, but still in a very safe spot.

Edited by jonny, 29 May 2017 - 01:34 PM.

[nagel]

Scheer is solid. Not my #1 choice, but solid. He will be really hard for the vast majority of the electorate to hate, for whatever that's worth. I think he has a really good chance of regaining some of the suburban seats Harper lost in 2015. The party will be solidly united behind him.

 

But yeah, the Liberals are one large scandal or economic upheaval away from being in trouble, but still in a very safe spot.

If he has the slightest whiff of a social conservative agenda I think he will have a hard time.

[jonny]

If he has the slightest whiff of a social conservative agenda I think he will have a hard time.

 

I dunno. Immigrant communities make great social conservatives. Brad Trost said a lot of his support came from South Asians due to his anti drug stance.

 

Plus he has already said he does not want to re-open the debates about abortion or same sex marriage.

Edited by jonny, 29 May 2017 - 01:43 PM.

[nagel]

Immigrant communities make great social conservatives, though. Brad Trost said a lot of his support came from South Asians due to his anti drug stance.

Sure, but in general, social conservative values are aging out in Canada.

[shoeflack]

I dunno. Immigrant communities make great social conservatives. Brad Trost said a lot of his support came from South Asians due to his anti drug stance.

 

Plus he has already said he does not want to re-open the debates about abortion or same sex marriage.

 

He's also said he wouldn't flip cannabis legislation back either, as that would kill jobs.

 

So while on a personal level he may have a lot of "social conservative" values (anti-abortion, anti-marijuana, anti-same sex marriage), he seems to have the ability to think of the greater good in keeping those values to himself. Which is quite refreshing honestly as someone who has never voted Conservative.

Edited by shoeflack, 29 May 2017 - 01:49 PM.

[jonny]

Sure, but in general, social conservative values are aging out in Canada.

 

Meh. At last year's convention, the Cons voted overwhelmingly to strike down the party's old definition of marriage as between a man and woman in it's official policy document.

 

The scare tactics will persist, but the party has moved on. At the end of the day, the majority of the people within the party care more about civil rights, individual liberty and not singling out subsets of the population.

Edited by jonny, 29 May 2017 - 01:50 PM.

[nagel]

Meh. At last year's convention, the Cons voted overwhelmingly to strike down the party's old definition of marriage as between a man and woman in it's official policy document.

 

The scare tactics will persist, but the party has moved on. At the end of the day, the majority of the people within the party care more about civil rights, individual liberty and not singling out subsets of the population.

That's good for them to move that direction.  I'm just saying if they can't keep that up they'll get gutted in the cities.

 

And Quebec.  I'm sure Quebec generally is not going to like a prairie guy as PM over JT.

Edited by nagel, 29 May 2017 - 01:59 PM.

[jonny]

That's good for them to move that direction.  I'm just saying if they can't keep that up they'll get gutted in the cities.

 

And Quebec.  I'm sure Quebec generally is not going to like a prairie guy as PM over JT.

 

Scheer actually beat Bernier in Quebec, didn't he? He also speaks decent French. Better than Harper did when he started out, anyway. He is solidly bilingual. I agree though, JT will win more seats in Quebec, and I'm sure will fare better in French language debates.

[theboss]

Scheer is a vanilla candidate. 

 

Pretty much Canada's version of Jeb Bush. Low energy and doesn't have the spine to take down Trudeau. 

 

Bernier should have been the leader and him not being nominated is a crushing defeat to the chances of a Conservative victory in 2019. 

 

He was the only candidate that people who I talked to on the left actually respected his ideas, every other candidate was dismissed immediately. 

 

To win elections, you have to get out the people who stay home or may vote third party, Scheer won't bring any of those people out of the woodwork. 

Edited by theboss, 30 May 2017 - 08:24 AM.

[Hotel Mike]

He was the only candidate that people who I talked to on the left actually respected his ideas, every other candidate was dismissed immediately. 

Really? I know people well on the left who were big supporters of Michael Chong.

Edited by Hotel Mike, 30 May 2017 - 12:48 PM.

[jonny]

Yeah, but those people on the left are never going to vote Conservative and live in ridings that are not going to elect a Conservative MP.

 

I think the likely outcome for 2019, barring something major like a housing crash or huge scandal, is that the Conservatives pick up some of the suburban big city seats they lost in 2015 and get up to around 120-130 MPs. Build on that from there and focus on forming government in 2023.

[VicHockeyFan]

So Dr. Jordan B Peterson is earning almost $41,000 per month via Patreon.

 

https://www.patreon....jordanbpeterson

 

And TheRebel also fund raised $200k for him.

 

https://www.indiegog...esearch-media#/

Edited by VicHockeyFan, 03 June 2017 - 12:17 PM.

[Wayne]

http://news.national...ly-flawed-party

 

This is good news for the NDP.