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#441 Mike K.

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Posted 13 October 2017 - 04:01 PM

Looks like a bit of capitulation selling ... in for 50K shares at $.23 for a swing trade.


Very good. It could come down to the 22 mark, maybe even dip to 20. Either way we know where its max is, so a buy at 23 and a sell at 30 when we get some more news wouldn’t be a bad pay day!of course it might also drop down to 11 cents, lol.
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#442 LeoVictoria

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 08:44 PM

Building a diversified portfolio of dividend/ paying stocks/etfs that can beat the market over the long term is not that hard and is in fact is a lot easier these days with the help of so many ETFs.

 

Here's the thing though.  You say 90% with some education can beat the market.   But everyone wants to beat the market, including of course the professional managers that have way more resources and way more access to investments you can't buy.  

 

So how are they doing?  Well 66 percent of large-cap active managers failed to beat the S&P 500 in 2016.  89.4 percent of mid-cap managers and 85.5 percent of small-cap managers did worse than the index.

Over 15 years, "92.2 percent of large-cap managers missed their marks, while the number was 95.4 percent for mid-caps and 93.2 percent for small-caps.".  (source)

 

So, if 90% of professionals cannot even match the index, how is it possible that 90% of educated amateurs can beat it?   Short answer: it isn't.

 

Look, I'm not questioning that you are beating the markets.  If you are, that is great.  But either you are very good and don't realize it, or you are very lucky and don't realize it.  The facts show us that it is absolutely not easy in any way.   Even the professionals that spend 60 hours a week on this stuff are failing miserably.

 

So giving people the idea that it is easy to beat the markets with a little bit of education is provably bad advice.   The majority will be far better off with a diverse passive investment strategy with extremely low fees that will match the markets.   


Edited by LeoVictoria, 16 October 2017 - 08:47 PM.

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#443 spanky123

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 05:26 AM

 ^ I wonder if their fees were net of the return. That would explain why some of them did worse then the S&P 500.

 

I agree with your thesis though that even the pros have a tough time consistently winning. 



#444 LeoVictoria

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 07:03 AM

 ^ I wonder if their fees were net of the return. That would explain why some of them did worse then the S&P 500.

 

I agree with your thesis though that even the pros have a tough time consistently winning. 

 

I believe you are correct it is net of fees.  So it's not quite as dismal as 90% underperforming the index.   But of course as a DIY investor you would also have to subtract your trading fees.   Will look for some data on gross returns.  



#445 Mike K.

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 12:06 PM

David, did you sell JET at .26 today? Nice 10% profit from your entry at 0.235, if you did. If you're holding, hold out until it runs up to .30 and take 25%!


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#446 dasmo

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 12:24 PM

I believe you are correct it is net of fees.  So it's not quite as dismal as 90% underperforming the index.   But of course as a DIY investor you would also have to subtract your trading fees.   Will look for some data on gross returns.  

I also believe this is why yes....

Screen-Shot-2017-04-05-at-12.54.14-PM.pn



#447 DavidSchell

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 12:58 PM

 

 

So giving people the idea that it is easy to beat the markets with a little bit of education is provably bad advice.   The majority will be far better off with a diverse passive investment strategy with extremely low fees that will match the markets.  

 

Well it is true, whether you want to believe it or not.

 

And yes that is what I am talking about,  a passive investment strategy, but in my case containing only dividend paying stocks.

 

In regards to fees, they are peanuts these days ... $6.95 from CIBC for example.

 

Also most dividend stocks have a drip in place, so if you want to just continually reinvest your dividends in the same stock without paying commission, you can do that as well.

 

Personally I like to just let the dividends accumulate, then deploy it all at once paying the $6.95.


Edited by DavidSchell, 19 October 2017 - 01:08 PM.


#448 DavidSchell

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 01:07 PM

David, did you sell JET at .26 today? Nice 10% profit from your entry at 0.235, if you did. If you're holding, hold out until it runs up to .30 and take 25%!

 

yes I took the 10% profit,

 

The way I look at it,  penny stocks are for trading and the profits from trading them are moved into long term holding of dividend paying stocks. 



#449 Mike K.

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 01:08 PM

Very good.

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#450 nerka

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 03:10 PM

Well it is true, whether you want to believe it or not.

 

 

 

There's a whole lot of research and a whole lot of empirical data showing that it is not easy to beat the market. And of course there is the mathematical fact that not all investors can beat the market since they collectively ARE the market.

 

Buying a bunch of quality dividend stocks and holding them for the long term is a fairly smart and low-fee way to invest, but it is not a guarantee of beating the market.


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#451 LeoVictoria

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Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:15 PM

Found the data.   As spanky pointed out, comparing the net of fees return isn't entirely fair, since a DIY investor will have fairly low fees.    It's obvious that active funds are a terrible idea, but what about your chance of beating the market yourself?  

 

Well let's take another look at the professionals on that front.  How do they do before fees (gross return)?

The answer is in this report: https://us.spindices...e_download=true

 

grossfees.png

 

So even before fees in the long term (10 years), the large majority of active fund managers can't even match the index.   The only possible exception is large cap value funds, where some 53% beat the index.   For the rest it was mostly 60-90% doing worse than the index.   

 

But I'm sure that amateurs who read an annual report or two will do much better.



#452 Szeven

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Posted 21 October 2017 - 03:22 PM

We are in a special time for the last 8 years. Buy anything you are a genius. It's literally turned into a race to take the most risk. Will things ever change? Sure doesn't seem like it.
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#453 DavidSchell

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Posted 21 October 2017 - 05:09 PM

Buying a bunch of quality dividend stocks and holding them for the long term is a fairly smart and low-fee way to invest, but it is not a guarantee of beating the market.

 

True that, but it is better than handing you money over to some mutual fund salesman and doing even worse.

 

At least by creating a diversified dividend PF, you create a steady income stream during good times and bad. 

 

I doubt many people here remember the crashes of 87, 2001 and 2008 ... a diversified PF didn't perform better than the stock picking genies on the way up, but it sure did on the way down and bounced back sooner.

 

You can say what you want, but DYI investing this way will beat the financial planner you get a bank or mutual fund company and save you self of few bucks in the in term.


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#454 RFS

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Posted 21 October 2017 - 07:12 PM

What about a dividend index fund at the bank with low fees? Am I just being lazy and should just pick some myself?

 



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