2617 replies to this topic

[DavidSchell]

So once again today I read in the Opinion section of the paper an NDP supporter does not understand why the Green's don't step aside to allow the NDP to get the seat so the Liberal's do not get reelected. 

 

So once again I must say this is not about preventing the Liberals from gaining power again it is about electing GREENS. If NDP supporters are so concerned about stopping the Liberals from winning another election then they should vote GREEN!!!!

[rjag]

If the NDP think the only way they can win an election by berating and lecturing others, then they are basically doomed to never win. 

 

Heres an idea, why not earn some votes based on merit and good policy instead of fearmongering and moaning.....just saying

[bluefox]

I don't understand how people can sit there and lament declining voter turnout or participation in our democracy and then turn around and scream bloody murder that there is now a viable third party — something that could honestly help reverse those trends.

 

Would I ever vote Green? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, sounds pretty great to me.

 

NDP strategy in this campaign has been just as awful as 2013, the only difference this time is they're not pretending to be nice.

Edited by bluefox, 30 April 2017 - 02:27 PM.

[VicHockeyFan]

I don't understand how people can sit there and lament declining voter turnout or participation in our democracy and then turn around and scream bloody murder that there is now a viable third party — something that could honestly help reverse those trends.

 

Let's wait and see.  "Viable party" might be clouded by our perspective here on the Island.  From where we sit maybe the Greens look viable federally.  But they lost votes last election and are but a blip.

[57WestHills]

Just waited twenty minutes to vote. That's probably a good thing.

[DavidSchell]

Just waited twenty minutes to vote. That's probably a good thing.

 

Same for me, nice to see people wanting to get out a vote so early.

[LJ]

There is always a huge turnout for the advance polls, shows that lots of people aren't listening to the rhetoric and know who they are voting for.

 

The general election day seems to be for the people who need to read lawn signs to make up their mind.

[nerka]

Luckily Esquimalt has Desjardins,.......

the rare candidate that I would vote against no matter which party she ran for.

[nerka]

I don't think I have seen a provincial election in Canada in the last 20 years with as little public polling as we have seen for this election.  So little polling that it tells us almost nothing.

 

I suspect there are two reasons (1) news organizations are pretty broke, (2) public polling can be free advertising for polling firms but the polling firms are wary of getting egg on their face like 2013.

 

With little or now public polling to rely on the safest prediction is to go with recent patterns

 

1) The NDP will win most of the seats on the island

2) The centre right party will win the election

3) Greens will underperform expectations

[nerka]

http://www.mainstree...st-debate-poll/

 

BC Post debate poll

[nerka]

Yet, the NDP are out in force saying that Green voters are vote splitters who will cost the NDP the election -

Parties who are competing for the same voters generally tend to fight more viciously (during campaigns at least) than parties on the opposite sides of the spectrum.  Weaver spent more time attacking Horgan than Clark in the last debate. Mulclair spent more time attacking JT than Harper in the last federal elections.

 

According to the last Mainstreet poll Green voters prefer the NDP as a second choice over the Liberals by a 10:1 margin (74%, 7%, 19 undecided) so it is totally rational for the NDP to be wooing Green voters.

 

Interestingly in this survey Liberal voters in the aggregate obviously recognize that the Greens are the furthest away from their desired policies as Liberal voters would prefer to vote for the rival NDP than for the upstart Greens

[Mike K.]

Strategically Liberals are voting for the Greens in local ridings. My sense is they'll take Saanich and the Islands and Oak Bay Gordon Head. Victoria Beacon Hill will be a very tight race between the NDP and the Greens.

As for ESQ-Metchosin, finally the Liberals have a candidate with serious name recognition and that might spur Liberal voters who've chucked their votes in previous elections or strategically voted for the Greens to now back their candidate.

[nerka]

Strategically Liberals are voting for the Greens in local ridings. My sense is they'll take Saanich and the Islands and Oak Bay Gordon Head. Victoria Beacon Hill will be a very tight race between the NDP and the Greens.

As for ESQ-Metchosin, finally the Liberals have a candidate with serious name recognition and that might spur Liberal voters who've chucked their votes in previous elections or strategically voted for the Greens to now back their candidate.

Greens are a lock in OB and highly probable in Saanich North and the Islands. That said Saanich North and the Islands is one of the relatively few  places on Vancouver Island where Liberals have a shot (long shot, but not zero) so arguably the "strategic" thing for a Liberal supporter there is to actually vote Liberal.

[Greg]

Same candidates are running in Saanich North and the Islands as last election. The Liberal came closer to beating the NDP there than the Green candidate (and the Liberal started later), so it doesn't really make sense for a Liberal supporter to strategically vote Green in that riding.There was a recount last time, I imagine it will be an equally close three-way race this time.

[Rob Randall]

Had an interesting chat with 95-year old Reg, a lifelong UK-born left-wing voter who cast his ballot for the BC Provincial election the other day in advance polling. He recalls voting in the 1945 UK election, the one that tossed out Churchill in favour of Labour.

 

Personally, I'm worried if the Greens don't pick up at least one more seat the entire movement will fizzle out.

Edited by Rob Randall, 01 May 2017 - 08:43 AM.

[VicHockeyFan]

Same candidates are running in Saanich North and the Islands as last election. The Liberal came closer to beating the NDP there than the Green candidate (and the Liberal started later), so it doesn't really make sense for a Liberal supporter to strategically vote Green in that riding.There was a recount last time, I imagine it will be an equally close three-way race this time.

 

But every Green riding win is one less for the NDP, no?  If every Island riding went Green, for example, the Liberals will win the election.  NDP needs the Island ridings.

[Awaiting Juno]

But every Green riding win is one less for the NDP, no?  If every Island riding went Green, for example, the Liberals will win the election.  NDP needs the Island ridings.

 

The NDP need to focus on their own platform and giving people a reason to vote for them.  That means in ridings where there's a substantial number of reasonably well-off people that you don't go and give them the one finger salute while asking them to pay ever more taxes and then expect them to vote for you to keep the Liberals from forming government.  If there's more Green in the legislature that's a good thing - further, the Green platform is compelling and the candidates seem to be well equipped to take on the roles that they will have if elected.  A Liberal minority government that needs the support of either NDP or Green members to get things done is not and should not be seen as a bad thing.

[nerka]

Personally, I'm worried if the Greens don't pick up at least one more seat the entire movement will fizzle out.

BC Provincial:

2001 - 12.4% Green

2005 - 9.2% Green

2009 - 8.2% Green

2013 - 8.1% Green

 

Canada Federal

2000 - 0.9%

2004 - 4.3%

2006 - 4.5%

2008 - 6.8%

2011 - 3.9%

2015 - 3.4%

 

The trends aren't encouraging. That said the very few polls are a bit more encouraging for the Greens.

[DavidSchell]

Latest Poll:

 

BC Liberals (43%, +4) and NDP (41%, -3) in Tight Race (Greens 14%, +2). Neither Clark (29%, -1) Nor Horgan (26%, -2) Gaining Advantage as Best Premier (Weaver 15%, +4)

 

http://www.ipsos-na....se.aspx?id=7635

[nerka]

That means in ridings where there's a substantial number of reasonably well-off people that you don't go and give them the one finger salute while asking them to pay ever more taxes and then expect them to vote for you to keep the Liberals from forming government.

 

I think it is possible to objectively state that the Green's plan expects the "moderately well-off" to pay more in taxes than does the NDP's plan.

 

Green fiscal plan:

3% tax increase on income above 108K

Increase corporate tax to 12%

eliminate boutique tax credits

carbon tax from $30 tonne to $70 tonne

 

NDP fiscal plan

"restore the top marginal tax rate"  = 2.1% increase on income above 151 K

Increase corporate tax to 12%

Decrease small business rate from 2.5% to 2%

carbon tax from $30 to $50