11533 replies to this topic

[MarkoJ]

My prediction is the average Model 3 in Canada for 2018 will be 80k out the door.

 

Just learned the other day that there will be no "gauge cluster" on the Model 3....that would be a bit of a deal breaker for me!

Edited by MarkoJ, 25 March 2017 - 04:50 PM.

[LJ]

A self driving Uber car was in an accident in Phoenix today, another drivered vehicle ran into it.

[LeoVictoria]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfRqNAhAe6c

[LeoVictoria]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44LLzOBrswA

[DavidSchell]

Might have to change this thread description to include flying EVs  ... very exciting test flight imo. 

 

 

World’s First All-Electric VTOL Jet Tested 

 

http://youtubehot.co...ying-cars-here/

[VicHockeyFan]

Flying drone taxis are coming to Dubai this summer:

 

http://www.cnn.com/2...er-drone-dubai/

[VicHockeyFan]

https://electrek.co/...ous-cargo-ship/

 

 

A new all-electric and autonomous cargo ship is planned for operation in 2018

 

[LeoVictoria]

Now this guy has the right idea.  Wildly optimistic, but I believe the shift will happen faster than most people think.   

http://business.fina...ng-the-industry

 

Our Leaf will be our last car.   In 5 years we'll get rid of it and jackhammer our driveway.  Autonomous cars will be much more convenient. 

[VicHockeyFan]

Now this guy has the right idea.  Wildly optimistic, but I believe the shift will happen faster than most people think.   

http://business.fina...ng-the-industry

 

Our Leaf will be our last car.   In 5 years we'll get rid of it and jackhammer our driveway.  Autonomous cars will be much more convenient. 

 

Will you use an electric jackhammer?

 

BC could do a cool thing, and make an autonomous bus that goes to the ferry terminals.  Tswassen and Horseshoe Bay.  That would be a real show-piece for BC high tech.

[rjag]

Maybe in 30-40 years but in 20? Nope, the shift required globally would be seismic in nature and the resultant effect on the economies would result in a depression that would make the dirty 30's look like a picnic

 

 http://list25.com/25...horribly-wrong/

 

http://www.cracked.c...s-about-future/

 

etc....

 

Not saying we are in for a massive disruption but if anything we will see it start in robotics at unskilled labour first i.e. factory farming, fast food, which will morph into trucking and mass transit and taxis, the personal transport device wont be first but near the end due to the sheer costs of manufacturing and the limited change compared to mass transit. Even then it wont have as much of an effect on areas outside of metropolitan areas.

 

Dont buy your jackhammer just yet, you may need the money after you've lost your job to automation

 

[sebberry]

Our Leaf will be our last car.   In 5 years we'll get rid of it and jackhammer our driveway.  Autonomous cars will be much more convenient. 

 

Where will you park your autonomous car? 

[lanforod]

^ he won't own it, just be part of a autonomous car share. 

 

I think it'll happen, but it's gotta be a good 30 years out before it's really becoming ubiquitous (the autonomous part, not the electric vehicle part).

Edited by lanforod, 16 May 2017 - 09:45 AM.

[spanky123]

Now this guy has the right idea.  Wildly optimistic, but I believe the shift will happen faster than most people think.   

http://business.fina...ng-the-industry

 

Our Leaf will be our last car.   In 5 years we'll get rid of it and jackhammer our driveway.  Autonomous cars will be much more convenient. 

 

This guy has been pitching this message for years. He claims that by 2030 all energy produced on earth will be from solar power and all cars will be electric. As a point of reference, in the past 30 years that solar energy has been in use, we have just reached the 1% of total production.

 

This is how these guys keep their jobs at Universities. They make outlandish claims to get publicity for themselves and their departments. When their predictions don't pan out they just keep modifying them.

Edited by spanky123, 16 May 2017 - 09:52 AM.

[LeoVictoria]

This guy has been pitching this message for years. He claims that by 2030 all energy produced on earth will be from solar power and all cars will be electric. As a point of reference, in the past 30 years that solar energy has been in use, we have just reached the 1% of total production.

 

The digital camera was invented in 1975.   20 years later the number of digital cameras sold was completely insignificant.  Anyone projecting out the growth of digital camera sales would have come to the conclusion it would take thousands of years for them to catch on.

Then they hit a tipping point of "good enough" and within 6 years film cameras were completely replaced by digital.   

 

The point is when the tipping point arrives, change is extremely rapid.   The tipping point for solar and electric vehicles is about 2-5 years away (when it no longer makes sense to get anything else for most use cases).   

 

Of course this guy's assumptions are unrealistically optimistic, but it will surprise everyone at the pace it moves, just like any technological disruption

[dasmo]

The digital camera was invented in 1975. 20 years later the number of digital cameras sold was completely insignificant. Anyone projecting out the growth of digital camera sales would have come to the conclusion it would take thousands of years for them to catch on.
Then they hit a tipping point of "good enough" and within 6 years film cameras were completely replaced by digital.


The point is when the tipping point arrives, change is extremely rapid. The tipping point for solar and electric vehicles is about 2-5 years away (when it no longer makes sense to get anything else for most use cases).

Of course this guy's assumptions are unrealistically optimistic, but it will surprise everyone at the pace it moves, just like any technological disruption

This....
Thinking back even just ten years ago and things are wildly different. In 2007 we still had Blockbusters charging $5 in late fees for that DVD you forgot to bring back at 10 AM.... Change now moves faster then it did before.

[Mike K.]

Oh you guys. Cameras and Blockbusters are now the inspiration for mass global change in personal transportation?

Remember when bio diesel was to be the next big thing? Remember when hybrids were to usher in a world of change? I sure do. The billions spent in promotion just ...fizzled away.

Look how long it's taken for even a small fraction of businesses to offer wall outlets with USB chargers. And we've been using cellphones en mass since the mid-90's. I predict that electric vehicles will remain a niche industry for many years to come. The so-called tipping point might come at some point, but it won't be before 2030.

2-5 years is great for the sake of conversation but it's not practical.

[rjag]

You cant compare Blockbuster to Ford or Toyota. They were competing against vaporware whereas Ford or GM is competing against itself to reinvent itself. 

 

Tesla might have massive valuations but so did Pets.com, until they realise they are not a car manufacturer but an energy conversion provider, its all hype and a need to keep relevant to keep stock valuations and subsidies coming in. Musk will make far more money licensing his batteries to the major players and work with all of them as opposed to competing with them.

 

But I digress, the jetplane killed the ocean liner as a means of transport yet we still have ocean liners, they just rebranded. Trains should have replaced long haul trucking but it only enhanced that industry. The cell phone has been revolutionary but it hasnt killed the landline (yet) but, the cell phone has caused more damage to digital cameras than landlines.

[VicHockeyFan]

Forget about the autonomous car that can handle every road any time. First will be long haul truck transport and buses etc. That take the Dane simple route ever day. They are already doing it in Australia for mines.

[North Shore]

^I wonder...they still have engineers to drive trains, and I've not yet heard any chat about replacing them. Railways have a fraction of the variables that exist on highways...

[LeoVictoria]

Oh you guys. Cameras and Blockbusters are now the inspiration for mass global change in personal transportation?

Remember when bio diesel was to be the next big thing? Remember when hybrids were to usher in a world of change? I sure do. The billions spent in promotion just ...fizzled away.

Look how long it's taken for even a small fraction of businesses to offer wall outlets with USB chargers. And we've been using cellphones en mass since the mid-90's. I predict that electric vehicles will remain a niche industry for many years to come. The so-called tipping point might come at some point, but it won't be before 2030.

2-5 years is great for the sake of conversation but it's not practical.

We'll see. If you follow the space the change is easier to see. If you're not paying attention it's easy to miss.

Hybrids didn't dominate because they were slow and complicated and looked funny. Electrics are fast and simple (granted anything outside Tesla still looks funny)