11555 replies to this topic

[LeoVictoria]

^I wonder...they still have engineers to drive trains, and I've not yet heard any chat about replacing them. Railways have a fraction of the variables that exist on highways...

Railways have a very important variable: unions

[spanky123]

The digital camera was invented in 1975.   20 years later the number of digital cameras sold was completely insignificant.  Anyone projecting out the growth of digital camera sales would have come to the conclusion it would take thousands of years for them to catch on.

Then they hit a tipping point of "good enough" and within 6 years film cameras were completely replaced by digital.   

 

 

Not disputing that technology moves quickly. In the case here the associate professor seems to base his entire 2012 claim about solar energy on the fact that fossil fuels had risen in price at rate A while solar energy had declined in price by rate B. He then straight lined the point in time where rate A exceeded rate B and voila the world would stop using fossil fuels and everything would be solar. Even if such a simplistic model was even likely, fossil fuel prices crashed in 2015 and solar energy hasn't come down in price at the expected rate and many countries are cutting their forecasts.

 

I wonder if the guy is related to bighead. That would explain how he got his job at Stanford!

Edited by spanky123, 16 May 2017 - 06:31 PM.

[LJ]

You snooze you lose......

 

http://business.fina...campaign=buffer

[MarkoJ]

 

 

 

This will happen with electric cars for sure. Once we get a good looking, 400km range, electric car for 50k the tipping point will happen.  It will take 3-5 years but it is coming.

 

My parents just bought a new gasoline Audi and I drove them to the airport in it....what a piece of crap compared to the Tesla drivetrain.  You forget how amazing the electric drivetrain is until you have to drive a regular car.

[RFS]

This will happen with electric cars for sure. Once we get a good looking, 400km range, electric car for 50k the tipping point will happen. It will take 3-5 years but it is coming.

thats no tipping point. it would have to be 20-25k for it to be a true tipping point imo. once honda civics and corollas are electric thats a point that has tipped

[MarkoJ]

thats no tipping point. it would have to be 20-25k for it to be a true tipping point imo. once honda civics and corollas are electric thats a point that has tipped

 

I don't think so imo....Benz, BMW, Audi sell a ton of 3 series, A4, C-Class and higher models. Once this market is broken the tipping point has arrived and it is a race down to the 20-25k segment.

 

The only factors preventing a car like this from being a huge success -> https://vwmodels.ca/...w_wcB#spotlight

 

are lacking 100km of range (300km would be a good tipping point imo)

 

10k more than comparable gas version

 

poor charging infrastructure

 

None of these three issues are that far out from being addressed.  Tesla has already addressed two out of three with insane range and superchargers.

Edited by MarkoJ, 16 May 2017 - 07:57 PM.

[LeoVictoria]

Even if such a simplistic model was even likely, fossil fuel prices crashed in 2015 and solar energy hasn't come down in price at the expected rate and many countries are cutting their forecasts.

 

I wonder if the guy is related to bighead. That would explain how he got his job at Stanford!

 

1.  Solar continues to fall in price at a steady rate

2.  Solar buildout increased rapidly after 2015 so the fall in oil prices seems to have had little effect.

 

 

[LeoVictoria]

This will happen with electric cars for sure. Once we get a good looking, 400km range, electric car for 50k the tipping point will happen.  It will take 3-5 years but it is coming.

 

My parents just bought a new gasoline Audi and I drove them to the airport in it....what a piece of crap compared to the Tesla drivetrain.  You forget how amazing the electric drivetrain is until you have to drive a regular car.

 

Yep.  Wonder how many people here have actually driven an electric car?  Probably almost no one.   Once there is some market penetration with the model 3 and more people drive them people will jump on board quickly.

 

As for price, the average new car (not truck) bought is about $28,000.    Current electrics are about $8k too expensive, but that won't be an issue in a couple years. 

[MarkoJ]

Yep.  Wonder how many people here have actually driven an electric car?  Probably almost no one.   Once there is some market penetration with the model 3 and more people drive them people will jump on board quickly.

 

As for price, the average new car (not truck) bought is about $28,000.    Current electrics are about $8k too expensive, but that won't be an issue in a couple years. 

 

I get way more questions about my Tesla now than I did when I got it in January 2016.  A lot of Model 3 reservation holders approach me in grocery parking lots, etc.

 

Only problem with the model 3 is it will be two-three years before you can actually get one for 50k.  First they will pump fully loaded RWD version then they will pump fully loaded AWD versions.....by the time they make it to bare bones RWD will be a while.

Edited by MarkoJ, 16 May 2017 - 08:15 PM.

[Szeven]

Tesla's will always be yuppie until the prices come way way down. Any Tesla owner I know has a pretty sterile lifestyle. I'm not throwing our dogs and kid into a 150k model X. Max max 70k for a large suv or van style model that isn't embarrassing to look at.

[sebberry]

I'm not throwing our dogs and kid into a 150k model X.

 

Might want to check out the Like Tesla YouTube channel then...  https://www.youtube....ML-EXsPeiiYJLqA

[sebberry]

My parents just bought a new gasoline Audi and I drove them to the airport in it....what a piece of crap compared to the Tesla drivetrain.  You forget how amazing the electric drivetrain is until you have to drive a regular car.

 

Which model Audi and in what ways is it a piece of crap? 

 

Unlike electric cars which will inevitably all feel the same, gas cars are going to all have their own personalities amongst brands and models.

[Szeven]

Might want to check out the Like Tesla YouTube channel then...  https://www.youtube....ML-EXsPeiiYJLqA

 

Spilling an ounce of juice and carefully laying a clean bike on a $500 accessory mat is not quite the same as hitting the dog park in January.  As I said I cant justify it at these prices, but I hope one day they offer something I can.

[MarkoJ]

The Model S competes against the likes of Audi A7, etc., and the X against Land Rovers, etc....I see way more yuppie's driving those  I have an inch of dust in my Tesla.....I treat it just like I would any other acr.

[MarkoJ]

Which model Audi and in what ways is it a piece of crap? 

 

Unlike electric cars which will inevitably all feel the same, gas cars are going to all have their own personalities amongst brands and models.

 

2017 Audi Q3. It is like driving an old pickup truck once you get out of an electric car.  There is turbo lag, you feel the engine straining when you floor it....Tesla just takes off like a jet plane. Instant power, no drama, nothing is rattling or making nosie, etc. Only problem is 120 km/h on the Pat Bay feels like you are moving 70 km/h given it is so quiet

 

Huge car nut (would never ever buy anything other than manual with the exception of an EV) here but in terms of fun my Tesla > my old BMW 435i 6 spd (M Sport package and all). 

 

Also, oddly enough the Tesla has been the most reliable car I've ever had in that I haven't had a single problem under warranty.

Edited by MarkoJ, 17 May 2017 - 07:15 AM.

[lanforod]

Also, oddly enough the Tesla has been the most reliable car I've ever had in that I haven't had a single problem under warranty.

 

Nothing odd about that. It has 18 - 21 moving parts, vs something like 2000+ for a ICE car.

[VicHockeyFan]

Spilling an ounce of juice and carefully laying a clean bike on a $500 accessory mat is not quite the same as hitting the dog park in January.  As I said I cant justify it at these prices, but I hope one day they offer something I can.

 

My autonomous pod will take my dog to the park, let it out, an call it back in 30 minutes later, drive him home, all the while I'm home watching the Price Is Right in my Lazy-Boy with built in fridge.  My dog does not care if the pod has good looks.

[rjag]

2017 Audi Q3. It is like driving an old pickup truck once you get out of an electric car.  There is turbo lag, you feel the engine straining when you floor it....Tesla just takes off like a jet plane. Instant power, no drama, nothing is rattling or making nosie, etc. Only problem is 120 km/h on the Pat Bay feels like you are moving 70 km/h given it is so quiet

 

 

Yup, I dropped Audi after they stopped making V8 wagons. The Q3 is ok but if I was looking at a chick rig like that I'd be in the Macan which is a far sweeter ride, 2nd choice would be the Infiniti QX60.

 

I think they dropped the ball in the last 5 years to appeal to a broader base, not to forget broader butts ie the US market

[LeoVictoria]

Which model Audi and in what ways is it a piece of crap? 

 

Unlike electric cars which will inevitably all feel the same, gas cars are going to all have their own personalities amongst brands and models.

 

Sure, sort of like horses have great personalities.   

[LeoVictoria]

Nothing odd about that. It has 18 - 21 moving parts, vs something like 2000+ for a ICE car.

 

Well to be fair Tesla reliability has been not great.   About on par now with other luxury brands.   More to do with the newness of the company though.   Other electric cars have been more reliable.  Either way going forward they will be far more reliable than any gas car.