Real Estate News

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Just realized this should have been put in the "Development Articles" section. Sorry 'bout that.

^You posted this in the right spot, that forum is for articles posted on the VV main page.

B-C REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATION ISSUES ITS FIRST MARKET FORECAST

Apr 26, 2007

THE B-C REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATION IS FORECASTING A SEVEN PER CENT INCREASE IN THE AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF HOMES IN VICTORIA THIS YEAR, AND A FURTHER SIX PER CENT INCREASE NEXT YEAR.
THE INCREASES WILL COME DESPITE A SLIGHT SLOWDOWN IN THE NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS.
THE REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATION NOTES THERE WAS ACTUALLY A DROP IN SALES LAST YEAR, WHICH IT BLAMED IN PART ON BUYER RESISTANCE TO RISING PRICES. BUT IT SAYS THERE ARE ENOUGH POSITIVE FACTORS, SUCH AS JOB GROWTH AND RISING WAGES, TO MAINTAIN UPWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES.
THE FORECAST PREDICTS A NINE PER CENT DECLINE IN NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION THIS YEAR IN GREATER VICTORIA.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THE B-C REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATION HAS ISSUED A DETAILED MARKET FORECAST. IT SAYS IT INTENDS TO MAKE IT A SEMI-ANNUAL PRACTICE.

- fms CFAX 1070

In today's T-C "Business" section, Darron Kloster reports that [url=http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/business/story.html?id=985e2f5a-c777-4181-9659-32a48b5e981d:033fe]Construction boom shows signs of cooling[/url:033fe], but note the bit about the trend toward more apartments & condos & THs. Click on the link for the whole article. Below, the extract relating to MFHs:

She [CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.) regional economist Carol Frketich] said there is be a trend toward more apartments, condominiums and townhouses as rising land costs have an aging demographic of buyers looking for alternatives to single-family homes.

In fact, multiple-unit housing construction in 2007 and 2008 will approach levels of single-family construction in Kelowna, Kamloops and Nanaimo, Frketich said, adding condos require less yard maintenance or upkeep and are often more secure. "There is no sense in building housing that people can't buy, and this is a response on the builders' side to bring forward product that people can buy," says Frketich.

Casey Edge of Victoria's Canadian Homebuilders Association said with a third of Canada's population retiring over the next 15 years, the impact of condo construction in Victoria will continue to be "very significant."

He said Victoria hit historic building peaks in 1981 and 1989 with 3,000 new starts in each of those years. Builders have been "surprised" by the level of construction in 2006 and beyond. "I don't think anyone predicted 2,700 new starts," said Edge, "Especially with the high costs of land and labour shortage."

He said the rise of condo developments gave builders and buyers options and affordability in those conditions, and expects demand to continue.

REAL ESTATE Our house is a very, very, very rich house
Scrimping for a place to live takes on a new meaning in Victoria, where prices are through the roof

JUSTINE HUNTER
Globe and Mail
August 4, 2007

VICTORIA -- When agent Robert Milloy listed two "trophy" properties in Victoria this week for record prices, he took the lead in a stampede by his competitors to tap into an elite international market.

"They are coming for all the things we take for granted: Clean air, a stunning environment, safe streets," said Mr. Milloy, of Sotheby's International Realty Canada. "In the world market, these are perceived as exceptional value."

In recent weeks, more than half a dozen homes with asking prices in excess of $10-million have hit the market in Victoria, each one more expensive than the last listing. The listings are being marketed in places such as London and Los Angeles, the prices listed in euros and U.S. dollars.

More>>>

I can't believe Victoria has surpassed Vancouver. That's crazy.

Average home prices across Canada

Victoria

June '06: $538,913

June '07: $573,415

Vancouver

June '06: $508,435

June '07: $564,702

Calgary

June '06: $367,033

June '07: $427,205

Regina

June '06: $283,655

June '07: $315,332

Toronto

June '06: $358,035

June '07: $381,983

Ottawa

June '06: $260,458

June '07: $279,361

Montreal

June '06: $223,133

June '07: $235,087

Fredericton

June '06: $136,371

June '07: $153,063

Saint John

June '06: $127,586

June '07: $144,769

Yellowknife

June '06: $243,745

June '07: $314,022

National average

June '06: $283,655

June '07: $315,332



Source: Canadian Real Estate
Association

Could it be the waterfront mansions are skewing the stats?

What if they measured the median instead of the average?

There are plenty of waterfront mansions in Vancouver skewing the stats as well.

The supremely expensive properties in Victoria can't be skewing the stats because nobody's buying them.

Meanwhile; south of the border...

Monday, August 6, 2007 - Page updated at 05:40 PM
More homes for sale, but prices keep climbing

By Elizabeth Rhodes

Seattle Times business reporter

Prices of King County's houses and condominiums last month increased 9 percent compared to a year earlier — even while the number of available properties grew 51 percent.

The number of homes for sale also was up 57 percent in Snohomish County and 47 percent in Pierce County, according to July numbers released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. This continues a trend that has persisted for several months.

Yet prices in all counties rose, also continuing a trend, though at a slower pace than the double-digit rates of a year ago.

In King County, single-family home prices have crept up every month this year, rising from January's median $429,495 to July's median of $481,000.

Median house prices in Snohomish County have bobbled up and down, from a low of $356,000 in February to June's high of $381,000 before dipping to $370,165 last month. Temporary dips are common.

Pierce County has seen median house prices rise from $272,500 in January to July's $288,950.

Elizabeth Rhodes: erhodes@seattletimes.com

Copyright © 2007 The Seattle Times Company

Seattle could start trying to lure Canadians there and advertise their cheap (relatively) houses. And you can deduct your mortgage payments from your income tax at least partially.

Interesting blog post by Clark Williams-Derry on Sightlines / aka The Daily Score[/url:8a80e] out of Seattle:
[quote]Half-Price Housing
Posted by Clark Williams-Derry on 09/13/2007 at 11:45 AM

I doubt that anyone who's followed British Columbia's real estate trends will find [url=http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/story.html?id=fca01ff9-e6e6-4bf9-a032-902a1fef7059&k=26331:8a80e]this news[/url:8a80e] surprising: apparently, home ownership in the province isn't as affordable as it used to be. Shocking, I know.

But what does interest me about the article is this bit:

[quote:8a80e]The RBC affordability index measures the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home...Across B.C., a standard two-storey home stood at 68 per cent, followed by a detached bungalow at 65 per cent, a standard townhouse at 48 per cent, and a standard condo at 34 per cent.[/quote]

Lookit: condos in the province cost about half as much as standard two-storey homes. (I'm all about the Canadian spelling!)

Which makes me wonder: what's all the fuss I hear about condo developments making housing unaffordable?

The fall in housing affordability and the rise in condo constriction are, at least in a general sense, a consequence of the same underlying dynamic: a rise in demand for housing, relative to the supply.

Building condos increases the supply of the lowest-priced home, which gives some people a shot at buying, and may even help hold down rents. And given that condos are the cheapest homes on the market, new condo development typically means more affordable housing for people who aren't super-rich.

So sure, some new condos -- particularly in up-and-coming neighborhoods, or close to downtown -- can be pretty darn pricey. But at heart, it's not the condos themselves that are causing affordability problems. Rather, condos are a response to a shortage of affordable housing, not a cause.

(And yes, I do understand that this discussion leaves out the problems of providing low-income housing -- which typically requires solutions that the market alone can't provide. That's a discussion for another day.)

So next time you hear someone complain that new condos are making it impossible for ordinary people to afford a home, call foul. Just ask them to check the prices on houses vs. condos -- the more affordable option will be clear enough.
Posted in: British Columbia Sprawl & Transportation | Permalink
[url="http://www.sightline.org/daily_score/archive/2007/09/13/half-price-housing"]http://www.sightline.org/daily_score/ar ... ce-housing[/quote:8a80e]

^ Someone should email this to Council, Fortin is always saying that isn't true when there it is in black and white. Half the take income required. Sure it is a smaller place but how many people need the 2 storey house?

^ Good idea.

I forgot to point out that Clark Williams-Derry must have made a typo when he wrote, "The fall in housing affordability and the rise in condo constriction are, at least in a general sense, a consequence of the same underlying dynamic: a rise in demand for housing, relative to the supply." (emphasis added)

I'm sure he must have meant to write "condo construction"... :-)

I've been saying that since day one. Yes, there are luxury condos, but most people buy a condo because they can't afford to buy a house in the same part of town.

$1.65 million for this junker in Cook St. Village?


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I smell potential redevelopment, how about you?

$1.65 without a rezoning in place? That's nuts.

How big is the lot?

Would it need rezoning to tear it down and rebuild a two or three story res with ground retail?

^probably. If not a rezoning then a variance which would be just as contentious as a rezoning, I'm sure.