http://research.cibc...o/ArEcoMEA.htmlThe CIBCWM Metropolitan Economic Activity Index
Using 9 key macroeconomic variables, we have developed a metropolitan index of economic activity, which is structured in a way that approximates the change in each city's level of economic activity. With data going back for almost 10 years, our index enables us not only to monitor the current performance of a given city but also to track its cyclical behavior against the national economy and other census metropolitan areas (CMAs). The focus is on the 25 largest CMAs in Canada.
(I only counted 24)
The CIBCWM Metropolitan Economic Activity Index is a measure designed to rank the pace of economic momentum in Canada’s largest Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). Nine key macroeconomic variables and drivers of economic growth comprise the index, which enables us to approximate economic growth in each of these cities and provides a consistent base for comparison with other cities and/or with the average performance of all other CMAs.
For the first time on record the city of Edmonton tops our city ranking in term of economic momentum. Strong population growth (second only to Calgary), impressive employment gains, low unemployment rate, and well below average corporate and personal insolvency rates combined to boost Edmonton to its current ranking. In fact, if it were not for some recent softness in the pace of the improvement in the housing market, the gap between Edmonton and Calgary would have been even larger. Note that the recent slowing in housing market activity in the city reflects deteriorating affordability as well as a natural slowing from an unsustainable pace of improvement observed earlier in the year.
The macro variables used to develop the index are:
(1) Population growth (Victoria is 6th)
(2) Employment growth (5th)
(3) Unemployment rate (5th)
(4) Full-time share in total employment (2nd)
(5) Personal bankruptcy rate (5th)
(6) Business bankruptcy rate (1st! )
(7) Housing starts (22nd )
(8) MLS Housing resales (5th)
(9) Non-Residential building permits (8th)
the list goes like this:
1. Edmonton
2. Calgary
3. Saskatoon
4. Montreal
5. Toronto
6. Vancouver
7. Sherbrooke
8. VICTORIA
9. Trois-Riviere
10. Regina
11. St John
12. Quebec
13. Halifax
14. Kitchener
15. Sudbury
16. London
17. Hamilton
18. St John's
19. Ottawa/Gatineau
20. Kingston
21. Thunder Bay
22. St Catharines
23. Saguenay
24. Windsor
http://research.cibc...tro_monitor.pdf
Victoria data:
http://research.cibc...ma-victoria.pdf
More housing pls. Looks like Victoria does pretty well overall but we could have made the top 5 if we'd upped our housing starts compared with 2006.