2302 replies to this topic

[lanforod]

I would suspect the daily number to be closer to 1500 if there was 600 in those peak return hours.

[Mike K.]

By 4:30 it's dark, it's often cold and rainy (slick even) and we are to believe 600 defiant cyclists somehow trudge across the JSB? It makes no sense, I mean like I said I walk across that bridge every single day and in the winter months you're lucky to see a cyclist cross it in one direction or the other.

 

Something about the data collection seems off to me. I accept the possibility that 600 cyclists is indeed the actual number if that is how many are being physically identified but it's just so, so ...bizarre.

[Coreyburger]

So that's only in one direction or in both directions?

 

Can you explain further the 10% of travelers cross during the 3-6PM period and how the 2,700 cyclist count is, well, counted?

 

Manual count via observers. That is bi-directional. The count station is just west of the bridge. 10% is peak hour, so that is 4-5pm with 279 cyclists counted.

 

You can't extrapolate a number like that into a full day and claim an average of 2700 rode the bridge, I'll place money against that number. Is that based on the same type if data collection we read about 6 months ago that was collected by paid members of the cycling community?

 

Traffic volumes are estimated this way all the time. 10% is a standard factor from the Institute of Transportation Engineers as a rough measure.

[thundergun]

I'm going to take a wild guess and assume a maximum of 250 people cycle to work in the urban core year-round, rain or shine.

And even that is a high estimate, I'd say.

 

Not too long ago I worked in an office with <150 people and year round there were probably ten people that cycled rain or shine with that number greatly increasing outside of the darkest coldest months. Not that you can extrapolate that for any useful purpose, but your estimate of 250 is well below what I would assume to be the case.

 

It's also important to note that people come into town from all directions, including many that wouldn't cross the bridge.

[Mike K.]

Is the count date published by the CRD anywhere, or are cycling organizations made aware of the count being held on a specific date?

 

What about individuals crossing on both directions within a three hour period?

[Coreyburger]

Is the count date published by the CRD anywhere, or are cycling organizations made aware of the count being held on a specific date?

 

What about individuals crossing on both directions within a three hour period?

 

Dates follow the National Bicycle and Pedestrian Documentation Project guidelines (save the Sept count is moved to Oct) - http://bikepeddocumentation.org/

 

Yes, somebody who rode both ways would be counted twice. Exactly as somebody who drove both ways would be counted twice in any other count.

Edited by Coreyburger, 29 July 2014 - 10:34 AM.

[Mike K.]

I see, so the lobby groups are acutely aware of when the counts take place. Does the CRD accept the possibility that numbers could be skewed as a result of the count dates being publicised?

 

600 people crossing in a three hour period is intense, I mean that's some serious cycling going on in the dead of winter.

[Coreyburger]

I see, so the lobby groups are acutely aware of when the counts take place. Does the CRD accept the possibility that numbers could be skewed as a result of the count dates being publicised?

 

600 people crossing in a three hour period is intense, I mean that's some serious cycling going on in the dead of winter.

 

JSB volumes are largely driven by the Galloping Goose Regional Trail and how attractive it is for bike riders. The only place busier for bike riders in the region is just north of the Selkirk Trestle where the government offices are.

[sebberry]

Traffic volumes are estimated this way all the time. 10% is a standard factor from the Institute of Transportation Engineers as a rough measure.

 

I'm not familiar with the principles of traffic counting so you'll have to fill me in here.

 

Is it accurate to take a rush hour count and extrapolate that to a full day estimate? 

if the count was done during off-peak times, the daily estimate would be much different.

 

But I probably just don't understand the math here.

[Coreyburger]

I'm not familiar with the principles of traffic counting so you'll have to fill me in here.

 

Is it accurate to take a rush hour count and extrapolate that to a full day estimate? 

if the count was done during off-peak times, the daily estimate would be much different.

 

But I probably just don't understand the math here.

 

Depends on what you need. Traffic volumes change by the day and hour, sometimes quite substantially. For example, Monday and Friday are always different, while Tuesday-Thursday are generally similar. Counts (motor vehicle or bicycle) have to account for this and do in various ways. Manual counts are usually done on the PM on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday as they are the most "normal" times. The CRD bike counts follow this convention (as do just about any counts you see in reports by consultants or the municipality). Automated counts are 3 or 7-day, sometimes 2-week or 4-week. MoTI also have some permanent counters installed (their data is here - http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/trafficData/)

 

10% is a rule of thumb, not an exact measure. If you wanted to test it yourself, the CRD also publishes its traffic counts online: https://www.crd.bc.c.../traffic-counts

[Greg]

I'm going to take a wild guess and assume a maximum of 250 people cycle to work in the urban core year-round, rain or shine.

And even that is a high estimate, I'd say.

While admitting that we are just trading fabricated and anecdotal evidence, I find your number to be ridiculously low. Sure, there are a lot of fair weather riders (and I'm not sure what is wrong with that*), but I see dozens of riders in a few minutes of observations coming and going on the 600 block of Broughton Street during commuting times every time I look, and that is not a main cycling thoroughfare. And anyone who is on the Goose during commuting time knows there are more than that.

 

/* who cares if there are fewer cyclists on rainy days. it is still reduced traffic and all the associated benefits on the fair weather days, and I'll bet a lot of the riders shift to public transport for foul weather, as they don't justify an extra vehicle just to avoid some rainy days in November and February.

[pherthyl]

Thanks Corey.

I'll speak from experience. When we had an office in Saanich I used to take the Goose then switch on to "Douglas" Street behind Saanich City Hall, ride up to the highway pedestrian overpass at Vanalman and cross there onto Glanford then onto Enterprise. Although this was the "safest" route I eventually got tired of the added distance and started taking surface streets. That saved me about 10 minutes of travel time in each direction despite being a slower route.

Eventually people go back to what is most sensible to them regardless of the infrastructure. Pandora remains an empty lane despite this being the peak cycling season.

So your argument supports adding cycling infrastructure to all major roads. Major arteries are designed to be efficient for all traffic, so if you are correct and cyclists tend to take the fastest route then the fastest route should have bike lanes

[Bingo]

I see, so the lobby groups are acutely aware of when the counts take place. Does the CRD accept the possibility that numbers could be skewed as a result of the count dates being publicised?

 

600 people crossing in a three hour period is intense, I mean that's some serious cycling going on in the dead of winter.

 

I think there was some of that "skewed" numbers stuff from  during the JSB debates.

[pherthyl]

I see, so the lobby groups are acutely aware of when the counts take place. Does the CRD accept the possibility that numbers could be skewed as a result of the count dates being publicised?

 

600 people crossing in a three hour period is intense, I mean that's some serious cycling going on in the dead of winter.

 

You are just determined to dismiss the actual counts no matter how ridiculous the argument, eh?

Coreyburger is the only one to actually bring facts to this thread.  That evidence doesn't jive with your impression and so you want to prove it wrong.  You really think cyclists have nothing better to do than look up dates when cycling counts are done and... what exactly?  Ride to work?  Presumably they're already riding since they are after all militant cyclists.   And if they aren't riding then they obviously don't care enough anyway to know when counts are.   Unless you are suggesting the cycling lobby is telling people to ride back and forth over the bridge to inflate counts, which is just silly.

 

You said you cross the bridge and see maybe one cyclist.  It takes about 15 seconds to cross the bridge, so that would be just about right with the actual observed counts.

Edited by pherthyl, 29 July 2014 - 06:51 PM.

[LJ]

^15 seconds to walk across the bridge?

 

Mike, next time you are crossing the bridge during peak periods stop for 10 minutes and see if 30 or so bikes go by.

 

I have never crossed the bridge at rush hour times but at the times I have crossed it I have yet to see a cyclist in the 30 or so crossings I have done.

[Mike K.]

Phyrthyl must be one hell of a speed walker to cross nearly 100 meters in 15 seconds.

@ LJ, I can count the bicycles next time I cross. In the summer I'm not arguing that bicycle movements across the bridge are impressive but in the winter months my entire walk in along Harbour Road then the bridge can be without a single cyclist coming or going. I'm flabbergasted that in the middle of winter the CRD estimates 2,700 cyclists are riding along our streets.

So your argument supports adding cycling infrastructure to all major roads. Major arteries are designed to be efficient for all traffic, so if you are correct and cyclists tend to take the fastest route then the fastest route should have bike lanes

I think you missed my point.

It's not practical to have cycling infrastructure on every street unless you want your taxes to burst. The point I was making wqs that my quickest route to the office took me along streets that were ideal for me, not cycling infrastructure. I had two cycling routes with dedicated infrastructure for much of the way available to me but that eventually played second fiddle to getting to the office faster.

[thundergun]

It's also important to note that this cycling/pedestrian infrastructure is also used by a whole other group on weekends, and in the lighter months in the morning and evenings, for exercise and recreation. It's more than just commuting. As someone that doesn't commute along along the goose, I'm amazed at how busy it is on weekends and think other trails of this nature (such as the E&N Rail Trail) are a great use of funds.

 

We need better cycling infrastructure and signage in the city but I can't provide any real comments on the city's plan until we get more information. Routes aren't needed on every major road but what we currently have is underwhelming. I just hope that the councillors listen to what the engineering staff says instead of choosing some other unproven idea.

[Mike K.]

Oh for sure, that's a very good point.

[Coreyburger]

@ LJ, I can count the bicycles next time I cross. In the summer I'm not arguing that bicycle movements across the bridge are impressive but in the winter months my entire walk in along Harbour Road then the bridge can be without a single cyclist coming or going. I'm flabbergasted that in the middle of winter the CRD estimates 2,700 cyclists are riding along our streets.

 

To be clear, that is a rough estimate of cyclists crossing the bridge over a 24 hour period on a usual January day. Any individual day could have lower or higher numbers. I would also note ~20% of the cyclists who cross the bridge went to/from the E&N Rail Trail when that ramp was open, so you wouldn't see them on Harbour Rd.

 

Edit: Nor would you see the cyclists that continue on Esquimalt Rd (about ~10%) and don't turn up Harbour at that intersection.

Edited by Coreyburger, 30 July 2014 - 09:00 AM.

[Coreyburger]

Thought I would also share this: https://www.flickr.c...sf/14779706461/