38 replies to this topic

[Bernard]

Gary Lunn - Conservative
Julian West - NDP
Briony Penn - Liberals
Andrew Lewis - Green

The riding includes more or less all of Saanich east of the Highway #17 - areas like Broadmead and Gordon Head, areas that are to the right politically.

I see little or no chance that Gary Lunn will be defeated

[VicHockeyFan]

Slam-dunk for Lunn.

[jibini]

I think Briony Penn has a good chance of unseating Lunn, now that Julian West has withdrawn. In 2006, Lunn received 37% of the vote compared to 27% for the NDP and 26% for the Liberals (53% combined). In 2004, the combined NDP and Liberal vote was 48% to Lunn's 35%. If most of the NDPers shift their support to Penn, she should be in.

http://en.wikipedia....lection_results

[G-Man]

Yup Lunn is out.

[Rob Randall]

I attended an all candidates meeting on housing affordability with McClintock, Penn, Savoie and Lewis. I was surprised at how well Briony did. She seemed informed on a wide range of topics and wasn't afraid to call the other candidates on their platform or lack of knowledge on an issue. Of all the candidates she appeared to want her seat the most. Savoie had the advantage of arguing her record while McClintock struggled at times, with his only ammunition being Harper's pledge to fund homelessness and build the economy.

[G-Man]

But aren't they in different ridings? I am confued Penn is running in Saanich.

[Bernard]

The all candidates meeting was a region wide one with representative of each party.

[Mike K.]

I can see a lot of NDPers putting their muscle behind the Greens, but the Liberals should do well with Penn regardless of the NDP vote.

Lunn is still holding on to 40% of the vote.

[mat]

I can see a lot of NDPers putting their muscle behind the Greens, but the Liberals should do well with Penn regardless of the NDP vote.

Lunn is still holding on to 40% of the vote.

40% ? love to see a more recent poll. The Con's will see a major hit from the economic news. They are the legacy party to be blamed and Harper has tied his campaign and language to Bush's 2004 strategy - while McCain has a month to regain ground, Harper has only a week.

Gary Lunn is in real danger here. Strategic votinghttp://www.voteforen...ent.ca/node/127 is on the mind of many Canadians - and with the NDP out even the die-hard Greens may go for Briony just to kick out a Conservative Minister.

[mat]

CTV has a general BC poll out today which shows the Liberals ahead in key ridings.

Yet to see a poll of Saanich Gulf Islands, Gary Lunn's riding - but with the NDP out, The Dogwood Initiative making bizarre phone calls and doing a sit in at Lunn's office in Sidney, and Briony (Lib) bridging the gap between Greens and NDP, we could see a Liberal in this riding for the 1st time in 11yrs.

The economic news is driving a flight from Harper (and Flaherty) - he said this morning "no bank bail out", then admitted a need for Canada to buy 'some' mortgage backed securities from the banks 7 hours later - (Globe Story).

This is becoming an interesting election - finally!

[Bernard]

That would a Liberal for the first time ever in the riding

[mat]

That would a Liberal for the first time ever in the riding

You are right -my wording was incorrect. Wiki http://en.wikipedia....ch—Gulf_Islandson the riding.

[VicHockeyFan]

Ah, the word PHASE being used incorrectly strikes again!

GIRAU DOES ADD THAT THEY AREN'T LETTING IT PHASE THE CAMPAIGN AND THEY'RE OUT IN FORCE AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S FEDERAL ELECTION.

CFAX:

TIRE SLASHING HITS GARRY LUNN CAMPAIGN

Oct 13, 2008

ELECTION VANDALISM HAS STRUCK THE GARRY LUNN CAMPAIGN IN THE SAANICH - GULF ISLANDS RIDING.

A CAMPAIGN WORKER FOR THE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE HAD HER TIRES SLASHED WHILE HER CAR WAS PARKED OUTSIDE THE HOME OF LUNN'S ELDERLY PARENTS.

CAMPAIGN CO-MANAGER BYNG GIRAU SAYS SIDNEY-NORTH SAANICH RCMP ARE INVESTIGATING, "NOTHING ELSE ON THE STREET WAS DAMAGED, NO OTHER VEHICLES WERE ATTACKED -- NO OTHER VANDALISM."

"THE RCMP INDICATED TO US, AND CONFIRMED OUR SUSPICIONS, THAT THIS WAS PROBABLY POLITICALLY MOTIVATED," SAYS GIRAU. "THE VOLUNTEERS INVOLVED AND GARRY'S PARENTS WERE SHAKEN… I MEAN, THIS IS SIDNEY, THIS IS NOT SOME BIG CITY WHERE THIS TYPE OF CRIME HAPPENS EVERY DAY."

GIRAU DOES ADD THAT THEY AREN'T LETTING IT PHASE THE CAMPAIGN AND THEY'RE OUT IN FORCE AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S FEDERAL ELECTION.

- RYAN PRICE

[mat]

well spotted VHF - like you I am getting tired of repeated spelling and grammatical mistakes in articles from local media. They should be pointed out as they impact the view of the intelligence and ability of the author.

Prediction for SGI - Briony (Lib) by 2000 votes. She only needs a swing of 40% from the previous NDP vote to beat Lunn's 2005 numbers.

[Jacques Cadé]

More pre-election mischief in Saanich-Gulf Islands:

Media Advisory
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 13, 2008

FRAUDULENT ELECTION EVE PHONE CALLS

The campaign office for Briony Penn has received emails and phone calls from voters throughout the riding who have received recorded phone messages from a group encouraging voters to support Julian West, the NDP candidate who has dropped out the race.

These calls apparently originated at the fax number for Bill Graham, the riding association president for the NDP in Saanich Gulf Islands. However, Mr. Graham has filed a complaint with the Saanich Police stating neither he nor the NDP riding association in Saanich Gulf Islands have any connection with the recorded message.

”We are encouraging everyone who receives these calls to ignore them, and of course to vote for Briony Penn on Election Day,” says Briony Penn’s campaign manager Kit Spence.

[mat]

Jaques - from which news source?

All this does, is create consternation in voters, especially those who are still considering which party to vote for, or even to vote at all.

Watching tonight's polling (1 day, 3 day and 5 day trend) there seems to be a consensus towards a Conservative minority, but with a substantial reallocating of key urban ridings. What cannot be counted are the 'new' voters (I mean that in both 1st timers and media savvy) who are actively using websites like voteforenvironment and vote swap. That could make this election a surprise, but very hard to call.

[http]

To paraphrase the CBC's venerable Russ Germaine:
If they can't get the name right, what else are they getting wrong?

CFAX:

TIRE SLASHING HITS GARRY LUNN CAMPAIGN

Oct 13, 2008

ELECTION VANDALISM HAS STRUCK THE GARRY LUNN CAMPAIGN IN THE SAANICH - GULF ISLANDS RIDING.

[mat]

To paraphrase the CBC's venerable Russ Germaine:
If they can't get the name right, what else are they getting wrong?

Now that is funny - truly a laugh, but so sad at the same time. Thanks http for calling that one. Language skills should be an election issue!

[Jacques Cadé]

Jaques - from which news source?

It's a media release, from Penn's campaign office.

All this does, is create consternation in voters, especially those who are still considering which party to vote for, or even to vote at all.

Yes, but that was probably the idea ....

[Lover Fighter]

I was confused last night when I received this phonecall, but just assumed the NDP campaign had forgot to reset their automated phone machine after West dropped out.