38 replies to this topic

[Jacques Cadé]

Interesting that in today's TC story, the reporter says "A vote for West would be considered a spoiled ballot." No source for that statement.

I wonder, are they telling people this at the polling stations? I've heard some people were thinking they'd vote NDP anyway, out of principle and so the party would get the $1.85 in federal funds.

[mat]

Our polling station at Hillcrest school had no information, or statement, on how to deal with the NDP situation in this riding. West was on the ballot just like the rest. When I asked if voting for West in this riding would count all they could say was that all ballots and candidates would be counted and passed to the election officer (no mention of a spoiled ballot)

Most people I know who are NDP supporters, and regular voters, know the situation and are voting strategically for Briony.

[Mike K.]

Lunn got re-elected.

[mat]

This is an affront to democracy - which is better articulated in other posts on this 'election' night. I wonder what happened to the NDP vote, as most were polled as going to Briony - they must have not shown up at all. It will be interesting to see what the turnout was.

My prediction, in a previous post, was that Briony would win by 2000, looks like a reverse in favour of Lunn.

Harper has a minority - but he did gain something like 20 seats, and no coalition of opposition parties can defeat him. So it is a government with only 34% of popular vote. Yeah Canada!

[Mike K.]

Just over 3,400 votes went to West.

[mat]

Just over 3,400 votes went to West.

Yeh - saw that. Interesting as the turnout seems to be about the same as last time, around 65 000 of the 89 000 registered voters. So what happened? Did both a good proportion of Libs and NDP go for Lunn?

A news story on CBC caught the eye - results from the east were available, even on some cable TV channels, well before BC polls closed. This is a problem every election.

[mat]

early numbers, but voter turnout is 58% - that is really low. Last election was 61% - it shows that even with the social networks, media and initiatives to increase participation the number of electors is declining, and that is a sad state for any democracy.

[Coreyburger]

I fail to see why Elections Canada even releases any information before all polls close. Solve the whole release information one and for all.

[mat]

I fail to see why Elections Canada even releases any information before all polls close. Solve the whole release information one and for all.

agreed, it seems to favour media who want numbers asap - however, the effect has yet to be determined. The Conservatives lost Atlantic Canada - advanced notice of that did not boost the 'left' vote in BC.

[Newlywednotnearlydead]

early numbers, but voter turnout is 58% - that is really low. Last election was 61% - it shows that even with the social networks, media and initiatives to increase participation the number of electors is declining, and that is a sad state for any democracy.

I think a large part of it was apathy about this election. There was no public appetite for an election right now and it felt like a cynical attempt to win a majority because of the weakness of Dion. It didn't help that the Conservatives ran one of the strangest campaigns I've ever seen, they spent the whole election saying "we're better off with Harper" or that Dion was an idiot, but never talked about their platform.

[victorian fan]

I believe 58% is the lowest voter turnout ever.

Canadians seem to have given this election a big yawn, as they have with every election since 2000.

[Bernard]

Because of how the voters list is now compiled, the voter turnout numbers are much less accurate.

In the past it was a straight measure of the people on the voters list and the voters list was created for each election through enumeration. Now it is a permanent list and has a lot more errors. The biggest error is in counting people twice.

As an example, many university students will be originally registered at their parents homes but then register and vote on election day based on where they actually live.

I know of people that were on the list twice because they moved and their new registration has a slightly different name than the other one. The only unique number all Canadians tend to have that lasts their lifetime is the SI number. But this is not required as part of registering to vote.

For years US turn outs looked worse than ours in Canada because we used different measurements of who voted. Our voters lists were much narrower than theirs. That said, we had less people vote in 2008 than in 2006, a first in Canadian history - 1 000 000 fewer votes were cast. We should have seen an increase of 450 000.

Locally, voter turn out in Saanich - Gulf Islands was a health 72%

[victorian fan]

Locally, voter turn out in Saanich - Gulf Islands was a health 72%

Thank-you. That cheered me no end.
Could you explain why?

[Bernard]

My guess is that a lot of people came out to support Gary Lunn that had stayed away from the polls in 2004 and 2006 when his vote dropped.

[mat]

Thank-you. That cheered me no end.
Could you explain why?

Lovely - my sentiments exactly.

Gordon Head is a conservative area, but our neighbours were actively complaining about Harper and Flaherty in the weeks before the election, then go out and vote for the conservatives anyway. Those that were considering the Liberals could not envision Dion as representing them.

[Jacques Cadé]

Curious. This op-ed by Times Colonist editorial writer Paul Willcocks appeared today in Canwest's Campbell River paper -- but not the TC. Why not? Is the TC is embarassed that the online Tyee has been able to follow a local story about Lunn's backers (see here and here) that the TC has, for some mysterious reason, ignored? Talk about odd and worrying.

Odd, worrying electioneering
Paul Willcocks, Special to Courier-Islander
Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Some odd - even worrying - things happened in the Saanich-Gulf Island's riding successfully held by Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn.
One election dirty trick involved phone fraud and seemed both unethical and illegal. The police response suggests election fraud allegations just aren't a priority.
And while there is no evidence of wrongdoing, third party advertisers played a disproportionate role in the campaign.
If nothing else, the events raise questions about the effectiveness of current laws and enforcement efforts.
First, some background. Lunn, natural resources minister in the last government, faced a tough fight for re-election. He won with 37 per cent of the vote in 2006, in part thanks to a three-way opposition vote split.
The Liberals nominated Briony Penn, a high-profile, respected environmentalist.
She hoped to appeal to Green voters. Mid-campaign, NDP candidate Julian West withdrew from the race after a creepy past incident of public nudity resurfaced.
(That's fuelled some conspiracy talk on the political blogs, with no apparent foundation.)
West withdrew too late to have his name taken off the ballot, but Penn's prospects were helped by the departure.
The NDP riding association wrote to all party members saying West was not a candidate and the party wasn't endorsing anyone.
But in the days before the election, residents were flooded with taped phone messages urging them to vote for West. People who had caller ID saw the call was coming from the phone of NDP riding association president Bill Graham.
Except that was not true. Whoever made the calls used "spoofing" software to make it appear as if the calls were coming from Graham's number.
The scam didn't likely affect the outcome. Lunn had 2,625 more votes than Penn.
West received 3,667 votes, but they can't all be attributed to the calls. Some people always vote NDP; others might have chosen to cast their ballot to ensure the party gets the $1.95 per vote in annual public financing.
But the scam certainly could have changed the outcome under slightly different circumstances,
Elections Canada refuses to confirm or deny investigations. The RCMP said no laws had been broken.
But lawyers disagree. It's a Criminal Code offence to knowingly provide false information over the phone (Section 372) or to fraudulently impersonate another (Section 403).
That's not the only odd development in the riding. Third-party advertisers are allowed to participate in Canadian election campaigns, subject to spending limits. The aim is to allow interested groups or individuals to join the debate, while setting limits to make sure the rich can't buy elections.
People who favoured or opposed a carbon tax, for example, could make sure the issue was front and centre or support sympathetic candidates.
Andrew MacLeod, of the consistently interesting thetyee.ca, took a close look at third party spending in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
In the 308 ridings across Canada, 52 third-party groups registered with Elections Canada.
Five registered in Saanich-Gulf Islands using the same address - a law firm that includes Bruce Hallsor, a Lunn supporter.
Hallsor says the groups recognized his expertise in electoral law. But he is vice-president of the Conservative riding association and co-chaired the Conservative B.C. campaign in 2006. (Hallsor is also a strong proponent of electoral reform and a champion of Scouting - literally, a Boy Scout in the often scrappy world of politics.)
Four of the five, MacLeod found, also had the same financial agent ¬ the Citizens Against Higher Taxes, the Dean Park Advocacy Association, the Economic Advisory Council of Saanich and the Saanich Peninsula Citizens Council.
Third party participants are limited to spending $3,666 in any riding.
Candidates, this time, were limited to $92,000. And it's illegal for third-party participants to split into multiple subsets to avoid spending limits.
The spending filings for Sannich-Gulf Islands will be watched closely.
If Lunn spent to the limit, and several third party groups with a common address spent heavily to support him, expect some tough questions.
Footnote: The Lunn campaign had its own complaints. He was a high-profile target as a potentially vulnerable B.C. Conservative. The Dogwood Initiative registered as a third party participant and worked hard - but unsuccessfully - to defeat Lunn based on his support for increasing tanker traffic in B.C. coastal waters.
The campaign said the group misrepresented his position.
willcocks@ultranet.ca
© Courier-Islander (Campbell River) 2008

[mat]

Conspiracy theories abound around Saanich/Gulf Islands and as a resident I was appalled at the phone calls, and the fact Julian West resigned as a candidate only after the cut-off date - the stories of him and the 'nude' swim were out in National media 10 days prior, and on blogs weeks before that.

This is also a riding which had collated pre-election polls with the Liberals (Briony Penn) either tied, or ahead of Lunn, and a concerted effort by the likes of voteforenvironment.ca to highlight the likely effects of tactical voting. In the event, despite a centre/left merge, Lunn got in.

As to the TC and not publishing the article - I think that is more complacency rather than conspiracy, or a heavy editorial line. Print media has been in transition for years, I can see the TC going once a week print, and boosting its internet profile in the next few years (Christian Science Monitor is one of the latest to do so). Daily papers cannot compete anymore - and investigative reporting requires lead-in and instant response (blog) in the new media age. TC is old hat.

[Jacques Cadé]

OK, so the op-ed is in today's TC.

Unfortunately, it still doesn't mention the most intriguing details from the Tyee story, that organizers of the third-party groups for Lunn included the wife of former EnCana CEO Gwyn Morgan, who resides in North Saanich.

If they were hoping to have a pipeline to the natural resources portfolio in the federal government, they're out of luck: this morning Lunn was demoted to minister of sport.

Mat, I agree that newspapers are falling behind the online media. But until advertisers start moving their cash to online in a big way -- maybe the coming recession will do it -- the mainstream media and their owners will still determine what is real news.

[mat]

OK, so the op-ed is in today's TC.

Unfortunately, it still doesn't mention the most intriguing details from the Tyee story, that organizers of the third-party groups for Lunn included the wife of former EnCana CEO Gwyn Morgan, who resides in North Saanich.

If they were hoping to have a pipeline to the natural resources portfolio in the federal government, they're out of luck: this morning Lunn was demoted to minister of sport.

Mat, I agree that newspapers are falling behind the online media. But until advertisers start moving their cash to online in a big way -- maybe the coming recession will do it -- the mainstream media and their owners will still determine what is real news.

I noted Lunn was demoted - yet Harper called him his most loyal and hard working cabinet minister before the election, something is a bit fishy there. Maybe there is something into the reports and Harper is putting a bit of distance between himself and Lunn.

As to print vs web vs TV - it is all about advertising of course. Follow this on Editor and Publisher which is showing most newspapers cannot survive on on-line advertising (average payout is $20 per 1000 impressions), which translates to around 10% of normal sell for a similar sized print ad.

I think this recession will cause a paradigm shift in media - the print fallout will be huge as it is simply not sustainable. As for TV, for top rated shows, more people watch programs on Hulu than on network TV (not available in Canada yet).

All this going on and we will see totally on-line news media (combining video, audio and print) that determines the 'real' news.