12 replies to this topic

[Bernard]

CTV and the Globe are doing daily polling in 45 battleground ridings in Canada, 10 of them are in BC and one of them is Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The first three days have shown some very consistent numbers for the parties in BC. Using these numbers and applying them to Esquimalt Juan de Fuca, here is how the result would look:

* Conservative Troy Desouza - 19500 - 32.5%
* NDP Jennifer Burgis - 17000 - 28.3%
* Liberal Keith Martin - 14500 - 24.2%
* Green Brian Gordon - 7500 - 12.5%

Over three days they have surveyed about 1350 people in BC, of which 135 should have been in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The numbers are looking consistent and solid and so can be applied with some confidence to one riding.

At the moment things look very bad for the Liberals in BC in general and in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca in specific. In this riding things are shifting back to a traditional BC race of right versus left.

In my estimation, of the four major parties, the one with the lowest chance of winning is the Liberals with Keith Martin. He has coasted on his personal popularity and squeaked back into office the last two times with only around 35% of the vote. His campaign is much less in evidence and I wonder about how much money he has and how many volunteers. The polls show he is declining and I give him less than 5% chance of winning because his party is in decline and becoming desperate - the stink of desperation drives people away.

Troy is going to hate for saying this, the election is now his to lose. His competition is with the NDP to get soft Liberal voters ASAP. If he squeezes, he can push his totals over 20 000 votes. I estimate that he has a 55% chance of winning.

Jennifer Burgis has a chance to win, but only if she goes after Keith Martin supporters with a vengance. She needs to be campaigning door to door and in the streets 24/7. Jennifer needs to make people understand that it a race between her and Troy and the Keith Martin is a nice guy that is no longer an factor in the election. I give here a 35% chance of winning.

The Greens should be able to pick up a lot of votes in this riding, the electoral math is very good for them here. A strong four way race could mean someone winning with less than 30% of the vote - this places it within the realm of a Green being elected. The Greens also need races where the incumbent MP looks unlikely to win. This riding is their second best chance of a win in BC in 2008. 5% chance for Brian Gordon becoming the MP - much better odds anyone would have given Keith Martin in 1993 when he beat Dave Barrett.

[Nparker]

A strong four way race could mean someone winning with less than 30% of the vote...

This is simply WRONG. When 70% of the people vote against a candidate (or party etc.) and due to our screwed up system that person still gets elected, democracy is not taking place. ELECTORAL REFORM NOW!

[Bernard]

It has happened federally in the past. In 2006 the lowest winning percentage was 32.7%. In 1997 the Reform Party won the Interlake riding in Manitoba with only 28.3% of the vote.

I WOULD love to see a change in the voting system.

http://www.new.faceb...?gid=2299654217
http://stv.ca

[Baro]

We need STV so badly, our current system is an affront to democratic representation. Might as well have a foot race or draw straws if 30% can get you a win.

[Nparker]

And people wonder why voter apathy is so high. No one in the current power structure really wants anything to change, so they make STV or other electoral reforms either too complicated for the average joe voter to understand or of such little priority that they never make it onto the radar. We need to demand change. Viva la revolucion!

(moderators: please feel free to move my comments to the Federal election general discussion thread)

[Mike K.]

As of 10:40PM, Martin leads by a hair with 34.11%. Desouza has 33.67%.

This has got to be one of the tightest federal races in our region's recent history.

[UrbanRail]

Desouza supports more highway expansion, as in a Mckenzie interchange, while Martin supports an investment in rail and more transit.

I think the problem in our current system, is that if I vote Liberal and not conservative, my voice wont be heard, because my mp wont be a member of the government.

[Mike K.]

As of 10:53PM, 34.14% for Martin and 33.96% for DeSouza.

[Edit] 10:55PM, 34.11% for Martin and 34.02% for DeSouza.

[Edit] 10:57PM, Martin is elected with 34.12% with DeSouza trailing by just .11%!

[UrbanRail]

As of 11pm today

Conservative Troy DeSouza 19,974 34.0%

Liberal Keith Martin 20,042 34.1%

Voter turnout: 58,734 of 88,782 registered electors (66.2%)

Polling stations: 225 of 225

[Mike K.]

CBC says a recount is already underway.

[Bernard]

To be clear, the counting of the ballots is not a formal recount requested by a candidate or a judicial recount. Keith Martin won by 68 votes and a judicial recount needed the gap to be less than 59 votes.

Quick factoid, only five MPs in Canada were elected with a lower percentage of the vote than Keith Martin. The lowest winner was in Gatineau where the Bloc won with 29.1% of the vote.

[martini]

Judge orders recount in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Conservative Troy DeSouza applied for recount after losing to Liberal incumbent Keith Martin by 68 votes

Times Colonist

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The 68-vote margin in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca was not enough to trigger an automatic judicial recount.


VICTORIA - A B.C. Supreme Court judge has ordered a recount of the votes cast in the riding of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca on the Oct. 14 federal election.

Justice R. Dean Wilson granted a request by Conservative candidate Troy DeSouza this morning to recount votes on the basis some of them could have been incorrectly rejected or improperly or tabulated. Validated results from the Oct. 14 federal election show DeSouza lost to Liberal Keith Martin by 68 votes.

The 68-vote margin was not enough to trigger an automatic judicial recount. That happens only if the candidates involved are separated by one one-thousandth of a riding's vote total. In the case of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, the vote total was 58,734, making the magic number for a judicial recount 59. The total includes all ballots, including mail-ins and those from Canadian military personnel serving outside their home communities, including overseas.

Martin received 20,042 votes, DeSouza 19,974 and NDP candidate Jennifer Burgis 13,222. The remaining votes were split between Green, Independent and Canadian Action Party candidates.

Neither DeSouza nor Martin attended today's court proceedings.

The recount will occur Monday and Tuesday at the Kipling Restaurant in the Fairmont Empress hotel in Victoria. The restaurant is no longer operational, but there are 25 tables to place the 225 boxes of ballots, which will be transported by security guards in an armoured truck from a school in Metchosin to the Empress early Monday morning.

The Times Colonist made an application to the judge this morning to attend the recount, which is normally only attended by the candidates, their representatives and Elections Canada officials and independent monitors. This afternoon, the judge ruled that a Times Colonist reporter can attend the recount. It's believed to be the first time a member of the media will witness a vote recount in Canada.
© Times Colonist 2008

[martini]

Keith Martin wins election in recount
Times Colonist
Published: Monday, October 27, 2008

Keith Martin has won re-election as Liberal MP for Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca after a recount was called off Monday afternoon.

Conservative challenger Troy DeSouza called off the recount after it became apparent that the number of disputed ballots would not bridge the gap between him and Martin.

In the election night count, on Oct. 14, Martin won by a 68-vote margin.

Martin had 20,042 votes to DeSouza's 19,974