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Constitutional expert required - No NDP candidate for Saanich/Gulf Islands


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#1 mat

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 09:59 AM

With the resignation of Julian West, and the deadline passed to register a new candidate, does anyone know the legal situation on this? It seems a number of natural NDP voters, and those who might vote tactically, are now disenfranchised. What would happen if Gary Lunn had to resign? - there would be no Conservative candidate, in a riding they won!

#2 amor de cosmos

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 11:17 AM

West isn't running but he will still be on the ballot as the NDP candidate. I don't know what will happen in the unlikely event that he wins, or if votes for him count at all though. I think I just missed the CBC thing about this but they'll probably play it again. Check out politics w/Don Newman at 2pm on CBC Newsworld.

#3 mat

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 12:07 PM

We received our Julian West lawn sign last Friday - I will keep it just for historical value! :)

I have looked at the election canada website and could find nothing about what rules apply in this situation - but there must have been situations where a candidate has pulled out, or even died, just prior to an election.

#4 Baro

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 12:08 PM

I remember in the US there was a senator so unpopular he lost to a dead man, but of course won in the end.
"beats greezy have baked donut-dough"

#5 Bernard

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 12:19 PM

1) Julian West should not be on the ballot. It is too late to nominate someone else, but the deadline to drop out is later. Last election there was a Conservative Candidate that resigned but too late to removed from the ballot.

2) There is no requirement for any party to run a candidate in any riding. If you wanted to vote NDP, no such luck now.

3) If a candidate dies after nominations close, normally the election is canceled in that riding and a by-election is held.

#6 G-Man

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 01:43 PM

This could clinch it for the greens

Saanich--Gulf Islands from last election

Gary Vincent Lunn ** Conservative 24,416 37.2 6,971 10.6
Jennifer Burgis NDP 17,445 26.5
Sheila Orr Liberal 17,144 26.1
Andrew Lewis Green 6,533 9.9
Patricia O'Brien Western Block 183 0.3

#7 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 01:55 PM

This could clinch it for the greens

Saanich--Gulf Islands from last election

Gary Vincent Lunn ** Conservative 24,416 37.2 6,971 10.6
Jennifer Burgis NDP 17,445 26.5
Sheila Orr Liberal 17,144 26.1
Andrew Lewis Green 6,533 9.9
Patricia O'Brien Western Block 183 0.3


That's a pretty crazy assumption, that ALL of the former NDP vote will go Green. I don't think so.

#8 Bernard

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 03:31 PM

How people change their votes is not easy to predict.

In BC the Reform party got a lot of its strength from former NDP voters. The Greens pull in supporters from across the spectrum.

Being first or second in a riding boosts your vote in the next election as people do strategically vote.

The NDP came second last time, where is that vote going to go?

Some people will stay home, some will vote for Gary Lunn, as they did in 1997 and 2000, and some will vote for the Greens. Will anyone go from the NDP to the Liberals, some will, but I suspect they would already have done so.

This is a very difficult for anyone not on the right to win. The majority of the voters have been conservative or populists. The NDP picked up the populist for the last two elections, most likely a lot of them will go to the Greens as Elizabeth May is the most populist federal leader.

Gary Lunn 45%
Andrew Lewis 30%
Briony Penn 25%

#9 mat

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 06:44 PM

Julian West was a former Green - and I think the NDP riding association thought his candidacy would bring in the Green vote as a hedge against the Liberals. Simply based on the last voting numbers not a bad bet...even the CBC today was saying one of the few potential upset ridings in Canada was Saanich/Gulf Islands.

I am not defending Julian West, or the actions 12 years ago that have determined his resignation, but I do find the timing peculiar - and mostly to the advantage of Gary Lunn.

Now, on the lighter side. I have a Julian West lawn sign - any ideas what to do with it, any bidders if I put it on ebay? :)

#10 LJ

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 07:11 PM

I am not defending Julian West, or the actions 12 years ago that have determined his resignation, but I do find the timing peculiar - and mostly to the advantage of Gary Lunn.


I am not sure how you arrived at the conclusion it would be to the advantage of Gary Lunn.

I would suspect most of the NDP vote would go to the Liberal camp - hurting Gary Lunn.

Especially if Briony does another Godiva ride.
Life's a journey......so roll down the window and enjoy the breeze.

#11 mat

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Posted 23 September 2008 - 07:27 PM

The transfer Green vote that Julian would have attracted will go back to the Greens, Briony can only pick them up if she acts fast, and works directly with the very disappointed NDP supporters, who will mostly go Green, or not vote at all. Is she actually running a campaign? - I see no online PR, no announcements of meetings, no liberal direct post, no door to door (at least in my neighbourhood)

 



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