Constitutional expert required - No NDP candidate for Saanich/Gulf Islands
#1
Posted 23 September 2008 - 09:59 AM
#2
Posted 23 September 2008 - 11:17 AM
#3
Posted 23 September 2008 - 12:07 PM
I have looked at the election canada website and could find nothing about what rules apply in this situation - but there must have been situations where a candidate has pulled out, or even died, just prior to an election.
#4
Posted 23 September 2008 - 12:08 PM
#5
Posted 23 September 2008 - 12:19 PM
2) There is no requirement for any party to run a candidate in any riding. If you wanted to vote NDP, no such luck now.
3) If a candidate dies after nominations close, normally the election is canceled in that riding and a by-election is held.
#6
Posted 23 September 2008 - 01:43 PM
Saanich--Gulf Islands from last election
Gary Vincent Lunn ** Conservative 24,416 37.2 6,971 10.6
Jennifer Burgis NDP 17,445 26.5
Sheila Orr Liberal 17,144 26.1
Andrew Lewis Green 6,533 9.9
Patricia O'Brien Western Block 183 0.3
#7
Posted 23 September 2008 - 01:55 PM
This could clinch it for the greens
Saanich--Gulf Islands from last election
Gary Vincent Lunn ** Conservative 24,416 37.2 6,971 10.6
Jennifer Burgis NDP 17,445 26.5
Sheila Orr Liberal 17,144 26.1
Andrew Lewis Green 6,533 9.9
Patricia O'Brien Western Block 183 0.3
That's a pretty crazy assumption, that ALL of the former NDP vote will go Green. I don't think so.
#8
Posted 23 September 2008 - 03:31 PM
In BC the Reform party got a lot of its strength from former NDP voters. The Greens pull in supporters from across the spectrum.
Being first or second in a riding boosts your vote in the next election as people do strategically vote.
The NDP came second last time, where is that vote going to go?
Some people will stay home, some will vote for Gary Lunn, as they did in 1997 and 2000, and some will vote for the Greens. Will anyone go from the NDP to the Liberals, some will, but I suspect they would already have done so.
This is a very difficult for anyone not on the right to win. The majority of the voters have been conservative or populists. The NDP picked up the populist for the last two elections, most likely a lot of them will go to the Greens as Elizabeth May is the most populist federal leader.
Gary Lunn 45%
Andrew Lewis 30%
Briony Penn 25%
#9
Posted 23 September 2008 - 06:44 PM
I am not defending Julian West, or the actions 12 years ago that have determined his resignation, but I do find the timing peculiar - and mostly to the advantage of Gary Lunn.
Now, on the lighter side. I have a Julian West lawn sign - any ideas what to do with it, any bidders if I put it on ebay?
#10
Posted 23 September 2008 - 07:11 PM
I am not defending Julian West, or the actions 12 years ago that have determined his resignation, but I do find the timing peculiar - and mostly to the advantage of Gary Lunn.
I am not sure how you arrived at the conclusion it would be to the advantage of Gary Lunn.
I would suspect most of the NDP vote would go to the Liberal camp - hurting Gary Lunn.
Especially if Briony does another Godiva ride.
#11
Posted 23 September 2008 - 07:27 PM
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