3249 replies to this topic

[lanforod]

No, I don't think commuter rail is the way to go here long term either. Forget this idea of into town in the morning and out in the evening. Do a loop route that gets you to the major points of our region, for 18-20 hours of the day.

[Victoria Watcher]

Loop routes are despised.

There is a strong chance robotaxis will make mass public transit obsolete pretty soon.

Better to just keep the roads in good shape.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 14 October 2025 - 07:16 AM.

[Mike K.]

The costs are atrocious, however. If we think $3 is too much for transit, judging how many people simply don’t pay, imagine the cost if we start laying track and rolling trolleys. And we’d need to have a maintenance yard for them, too. That wouldn’t be cheap nor would the land be easy to find.

My biggest challenge with the system is unreliability currently. Too many buses you depend on, just don’t show up. The second biggest issue is drivers no longer manage courtesy like they once did. Two goofballs acting stupid can ruin the whole experience for everyone, and the driver doesn’t care, because they’ve been prohibited from engaging.

[dasmo]

No, I don't think commuter rail is the way to go here long term either. Forget this idea of into town in the morning and out in the evening. Do a loop route that gets you to the major points of our region, for 18-20 hours of the day.

This is true. Changing social norms plus robot drivers changing things a lot. The arteries is what should be looked at not necessarily for rail in a traditional sense. The E&N is the only other artery though the Thetis pinch point. The bike path is great but the right away (that still is intact) can support another mode if it behaves predictably like rail. China is doing Autonomous Rapid Transit that runs on roads but behaves like trains. 

[max.bravo]

I think vw is right. Robo taxis are a much better option than investing in public transit.

Unfortunately BC legislation will somehow make it all but impossible here, like they did with Uber. Ten year late and they ruined what was good about the innovative model.

[dasmo]

Absolutely can’t ignore robo driving in this context.

[splashflash]

Absolutely can’t ignore robo driving in this context.

It's happening. https://vibrantvicto...672#entry793056

[dasmo]

It's happening. https://vibrantvicto...672#entry793056

Yep. China has this going on too.

[FogPub]

It’ll be a ghost train, all day long, probably.

What’s the capacity of a train? 250 passengers per run?

How many walk-ons at Swartz Bay who rely on transit per hour? 50 people? Maybe 75?

The airport serves 5,500 people by day, 99% of whom currently do not use the transit route that easily connects to McTavish Exchange.

There are 50,000 people living north of Saanich, with the highest rates of car use per-capita in our region, and the slowest population growth rate, with the lowest densities, by a mile.

If we run rail transit up the peninsula it’ll become such a financial boondoggle that there will never be an expansion in our lifetimes to another part of the region.

For ferry walk-ons you also have to count those who get dropped off/picked up by friends etc.  They don't all use transit but probably would if there was a reasonably fast train with space for luggage.

 

As for the airport, again (and even more so) you have to factor in those who get a ride or uber or taxi.  The current bus to the airport doesn't run often and doesn't go direct to town or anywhere else useful.

[Mike K.]

I had a meeting with the ICF yesterday. They say that Ottawa is looking for shovel ready transit infrastructure projects to help fund on the west coast, and the Victoria-Langford portion of the E&N right of way is being pitched by local MPs as a suitable option.

 

It wouldn't necessarily be rail-based, but higher priority transit, meaning the corridor could be opened to buses. The candidates for funding are expected to be selected by the spring, I was told.

 

I am not convinced, however, that rail will return to that corridor over the near or medium terms.

[Victoria Watcher]

You can’t (easily) run buses across rail rights of way. None of the level crossings are legal for that.

Any plan like this makes no sense whatsoever.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 17 October 2025 - 09:41 AM.

[Mike K.]

But it's legal for bicycles?

[Victoria Watcher]

But it's legal for bicycles?

 

Buses will have to activate the lights and gates if they want to proceed through the level crossing at any speed over say 5mph.   Maybe even at any speed whatsoever.  There is absolutely no pecedent for that (yet alone the proven, redundant technology) anywhere in North America.   We do not have the laws for it either.    

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 17 October 2025 - 10:08 AM.

[Mike K.]

I'm sure they'll figure it out. It can't be that difficult to trigger the gates/lights. I can also see the bus stopping at crossings just as a matter of fact, and I would imagine there'll be bus stops at crossings.

[Mike K.]

I count 14 crossings between Vic West (Bayview) and the Island Highway overpass in View Royal. Three are between Bayview and the Esquimalt Road crossing.

 

2 crossings between Island Highway and downtown Langford at Veterans.

 

3 more through to Langford Lake.

[Victoria Watcher]

I'm sure they'll figure it out. It can't be that difficult to trigger the gates/lights. I can also see the bus stopping at crossings just as a matter of fact, and I would imagine there'll be bus stops at crossings.

 

Then there is no point on running them on the ROW.  There would be no time saving. 

[Mike K.]

There absolutely would be, though. It can take around 20 minutes for the 46 bus to move from CFB Esquimalt to Helmcken Road due to PM congestion. The whole trip can be completed in about 15 to 20 with stops, from CFB Esquimalt to Langford Lake via E&N.

[Victoria Watcher]

How is a bus coming through the rail ROW evey 3 or 7 minutes or whatever going to help the vehicle traffic around those ROWs?

 

And how are the neighbours going to like the bells at those crossings going off 124 times per day?

 

It's folly.

[Mike K.]

I’m not sure, but I’m just confirming that Ottawa is looking for shovel ready infrastructure projects.

We can’t be held hostage when the TCH shuts down due to an accident. We need a secondary route even if only for transit and emergency vehicles.

[lanforod]

Should have planned the bridge out to be shovel ready. That'd use a lot of steel too.