3103 replies to this topic

[Jackerbie]

It's a bizarre survey that conflates intercity rail with local light rail...

[Victoria Watcher]

I’m all in favour of light local rail from Oak Bay to central Saanich.

[Nparker]

I’m all in favour of light local rail from Oak Bay to Central Saanich.

Presumably, you mean an express route with no stops in between.

[kitty surprise]

Survey results are in...

https://www.cheknews...-system-708348/

[Cats4Hire]

I really don't get why people think they'll take a train if they won't take a bus or are that many people wanting to get from Langford to Vic West on one trip? 

 

Unless they put new tracks down is there any major point (work or tourist related) they currently hit? Maybe the graving docks. They don't hit Dockyard, Downtown, Uptown, Uvic, any Transit exchange other than Langford, ferries, airport, Butchart, Craigdarroch Castle, etc. 

 

edit: forgot the hospitals 

Edited by Cats4Hire, 10 October 2020 - 10:47 AM.

[Rob Randall]

Poll: 95% of Victorians would like free ice cream

 

Poll: 95% of Victorians agree taxpayer's money should not be spent dispensing treats

[On the Level]

I really don't get why people think they'll take a train if they won't take a bus or are that many people wanting to get from Langford to Vic West on one trip? 

 

Unless they put new tracks down is there any major point (work or tourist related) they currently hit? Maybe the graving docks. They don't hit Dockyard, Downtown, Uptown, Uvic, any Transit exchange other than Langford, ferries, airport, Butchart, Craigdarroch Castle, etc. 

 

edit: forgot the hospitals 

 

Basically if you live downtown or want to get to the locations you have identified, you'll be against the train because it is not in your benefit.  The whole idea of the train is that you leverage and re-introduce an existing transportation artery that feeds identified areas (Esquimalt base, downtown).  Of course CoV council crapped the bed by taking out the link across the water, but again, since they (mostly) live downtown what do they care.

[Cats4Hire]

Basically if you live downtown or want to get to the locations you have identified, you'll be against the train because it is not in your benefit.  The whole idea of the train is that you leverage and re-introduce an existing transportation artery that feeds identified areas (Esquimalt base, downtown).  Of course CoV council crapped the bed by taking out the link across the water, but again, since they (mostly) live downtown what do they care.

Does it really serve the base? The closest it gets is Admirals/Colville which according to Google is almost a 30 minute walk away from the main gate. I admit I don't know the area too well so it might get closer somewhere but if it doesn't I wouldn't consider that serving the base. 

[Victoria Watcher]

yes it's not close to the main military part of the base.

[On the Level]

That's meters from the Naden entrance to the base is it not?

[LJ]

It's still quite a hump to the Naden gate and there is really nothing there except the school, museum, Canex and base housing.

 

All the work is done is done on the other side.

 

It would be great for the graving dock workers.

[Mike K.]

Grumpy Taxpayers says the ICF’s latest survey is flawed. They argue people living near the line are naturally going to support the line, so it’s not a representative survey of the broader population. Wouldn’t there be plenty of people against the train, too, if they lived near it?

There are numerous failings of this voluntary online survey.

The ICF press release failed to mention the relatively low sample size of 1,000, and the level of confidence of 90 per cent and statistical margin of error of 3 per cent. A 95 per cent level of confidence is generally the industry standard.

The survey was distributed through the ICF website and shared through social media platforms. ICF website visitors have a point of view, which may have prompted biased responses from 'Friends of the Corridor.' While not distributed directly, the ICF has about 2,500 'intrinsic respondents' and 1,000 Facebook members of a group dedicated to restoring rail.

The survey gathered 3,533 total responses of which 2,979 respondents gave a valid postal code for Vancouver Island regions adjacent to the rail corridor so 554 respondents were discounted. Residents living closer to any proposed resumption of rail service are more likely to be supportive, especially passenger rail. The ICF stacked the deck to get a more favorable response leaving out others Island residents who also would pay for any additional tax burden.

I’d link to the newsletter if there was a link to it within the email but I couldn’t immediately find it.

[splashflash]

To add to the good analysis in the first three paragraphs, they could have noted that the survey closed shortly after being alluded to in a newspaper article. This limited the survey participation to motivated, frenzied rail supporters who closely follow the mentioned Facebook sites and web pages. The survey was gone when I tried to get to it.

Grumpy Taxpayers are correct to question the survey. The ICF who conducted it are disingenuous managing small things so use your imagination of what you would hear if any revitalization of rail took place, "Railway breaks stranglehold on greenhouse generating road transportation", "Massive shift in freight and passengers to railway relieves traffic on dangerous highway". Somehow hundreds of millions in funds for rail are created in a vacuum, devoid of greenhouse gas generating activity. Railwau rebuilding - tie replacement, reinforcing ballast, failure placement, bridge replacement and road crossing upgrades - in the E&N railfan world does not create greenhouse gases.

I would propose that the residents near the rail line throw their support to conversion of the railway to a trail north of Langford. Access would be close to their homes instead of limited access to a few city-centre stations. Grumpy Taxpayers has sound reasons for questioning everything about rail on the Island and the ICF, but their belief that the residents close to the line support this white elephant is wrong. The survey is just the start of this rail hobbyist fantasy where Grumpy Taxpayers should be aiming their fire.

Edited by splashflash, 28 October 2020 - 10:53 AM.

[Mike K.]

I recall seeing a few election-looking signs promoting the survey, but I completely forgot about it.

 

The way I see it, though, is Grumpy has its slant and bias, the ICF has theirs. Neither of them speak for the broader public and both have an agenda/internal political motivation.

 

That being said, I am not a fan of rail as far as commuter rail goes between Langford and Victoria, but generally supportive of Grumpy's pursuits in the name of taxpayer interest despite my disagreement over SIPP's role in our region (which Grumpy, I believe, strongly supports).

[Casual Kev]

It might, except 255 buses requires 255 drivers and is likely far beyond what buses can scale to. The thing with the $600 million is that most of it is fixed infrastructure costs. The rolling stock is comparable per passenger to buses, meaning the big question I have is the ability to double track allowing for all day 2 way service to at least Westhills, and the possibility of extra trips to Duncan and beyond even along a single track midday. If double tracking is cheap and space for train storage can be found, it's a lot easier to add some more coaches to reach a 20,000 person capacity than it is with buses. The studied scenarios are very bare bones. There's also the question of how do buses and commuter rail compare to an LRT system? BC Transit's 2011 study found LRT would end up with a low operating cost of $1.70ish/passenger by 2038. It has a hefty upfront price tag, but BRT can be built to the same standards of speed and priority if we allow it to. BRT can also be upgraded to LRT if designed correctly. As long as we don't pull an Ottawa and botch the launch of LRT.

 

 

The trains are stated to travel 28 minutes between Westhills and downtown. The 50 is about 30 minutes between downtown and Langford, 35-40 terminus to terminus. The real improvements won't come without reducing the number of stops and implementing fare prepayment. Stuff that the 2008 douglas BRT proposal would have allowed for. Shame the region was too short sighted to build functional cost effective rapid transit infrastructure.  It's likely had that been build there'd be priority lanes down the highway by now and we'd have saved many hours of highway 1 congestion. The curbside lanes are better than nothing, but still have to contend with cars turning through them and make level boarding (no wheelchair ramps needed) and fare prepayment difficult. They're a far cry from real rapid transit. There's a thing called the Downs-Thompson Paradox, which this video gives a bit of an overview of. Basically car traffic gets worse until transit/biking/walking becomes as fast.

 

I think rail is feasible, but ultimately improvements to the highway 1/Douglas corridor would likely be more beneficial for Langford commuters. Now for Duncan and Shawnigan Lake commuters though rail probably becomes a better idea, though in the short term just running the Cowichan Valley Commuter buses more would be pretty great. Add midday 2 way service and day trips to Duncan become possible on transit too. The current schedule of them has the last Victoria bound bus leave well before many of the connecting routes start service. It'd be a quick fix to capture some of the non-commuter market. Did you know it's possible to bus from Victoria to Lake Cowichan 6 days a week? Problem is coming back as the Saturday schedule is the only one with midday Duncan/Victoria trips, allowing the transfer back. How many people would specifically go between Lake Cowichan and Victoria by bus is debatable, but Duncan/Victoria has untapped potential especially as Victoria's growth is making it more and more of an outlying part of the region than a separate entity.

 

One thing I missed from the report, the location of Vic West's station:

VicWestStation.PNG

 

It's not in downtown, but they did ridership calculations based on it being close to the bridge. I always assumed it'd be a lot further.

 

Without rail in the bridge I don't think many people would take up ridership. The station would still be a ~15 minutes walk from Douglas Street and not be much of an improvement from downtown buses. The only other way would be to dig under the upper harbor and build a subway to reach downtown. Technically feasible I'd imagine since the water doesn't go particularly deep, but probably too expensive for the ridership.

[dasmo]

But money doesn’t matter anymore so why not just build it all?

[Victoria Watcher]

by 2038 we should all have autonomous cars.  malahat will have an automatic counter flow lane that the cars will figure out. 

 

of i'll just step into my simulation machine rather than going to tofino.

 

 

 

 

These days the average commute from Mill Bay to Victoria takes between 43 and 66 minutes, according to the South Island Transportation Strategy, released in September. By 2038 that same drive is expected to take a gruelling two hours and 24 minutes on a bad day. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Could passenger rail down the E&N solve Victoria's congestion woes?

 

 

 

 

By 2038, a drive from Mill Bay to Victoria is expected to take 2 hours and 24 minutes

 

 

 

 

https://www.capitald...58ac7-119762929

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 14 November 2020 - 01:28 PM.

[Mike K.]

In 2002 it took between 43 and 66 minutes to commute to Mill Bay.

[mbjj]

In the 1960s it was one hour to Duncan. We did it every weekend, lol. 

[Mike K.]

Google says it’s 34 minutes from City Hall to Mill Bay, right now.