3103 replies to this topic

[Barrrister]

By 238 nobody is going to be interested in driving to Victoria in the first place.

[Nparker]

By 2038 nobody is going to be interested in driving to Victoria in the first place.

By 2038, I am not sure there is even going to be anything recognizable as Victoria.

[splashflash]

Google says it’s 34 minutes from City Hall to Mill Bay, right now.

Todd Litman of the Victoria Transportation Institute updated his Malahat comparison. This was likely in response to for the upcoming article and after comments by some local politicians called the recent South Transportation Study devoid of vision. Putting desire for flashy projects aside, Mr. Litman does an analysis showing bus enhancements would significantly reduce auto traffic while costly rail would do almost nothing.

A break down travel time comparisons on page 5 of his study. https://vtpi.org/malahat.pdf.

Buses on lanes to Duncan would take 60 to 65 minutes compared to 54 minutes to 74 minutes. A $1,007 million rail project would get passengers to Duncan in 65 minutes.

He also has informative charts with economic measures like cost per user that the Study does not include. As people on this post are aware, economics are surely needed for good decisions to be made.

Edited by splashflash, 16 November 2020 - 12:22 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

everyone is excited about taking a bus to Duncan I’m sure.

[On the Level]

Todd Litman of the Victoria Transportation Institute updated his Malahat comparison. This was likely in response to for the upcoming article and after comments by some local politicians called the recent South Transportation Study devoid of vision. Putting desire for flashy projects aside, Mr. Litman does an analysis showing bus enhancements would significantly reduce auto traffic while costly rail would do almost nothing.

A break down travel time comparisons on page 5 of his study. https://vtpi.org/malahat.pdf.

Buses on lanes to Duncan would take 60 to 65 minutes compared to 54 minutes to 74 minutes. A $1,007 million rail project would get passengers to Duncan in 65 minutes.

He also has informative charts with economic measures like cost per user that the Study does not include. As people on this post are aware, economics are surely needed for good decisions to be made.

 

His estimates are ridiculously flawed as they compare Operational dollars for buses against Operating and Capital costs including the cost of the route itself for commuter rail.  I'd be embarrassed.  

 

If you live somewhere that won't benefit from another route into town, you'll cling onto a $1 Billion estimate.  If you could benefit from the train, then you'll use an estimates like the one from the MOTI IBI study at $69 Million.

 

If you live somewhere that won't benefit from another route into town, you'll ignore the $1M price per bus (source BC Transit after mid life servicing) and will ignore costs of bus focused road upgrades, stops, maintenance facilities etc etc.  If you could benefit from the train, then you'll probably ignore the bus as it continually stops every few blocks as well as stops at all traffic lights etc.  It isn't an option if you must work longer hours then get home in a reasonable time due to kids etc.  But who cares.

 

If you live somewhere that won't benefit from another route into town, who cares if another crash shuts down the highway and someone is stuck on a bus.  If you could benefit from the train, then you'll probably be pissed off at the CRD and folks like Isitt for making the Niagara Main service road a non starter, leaving you stuck on a stupid bus.  You'll also be pissed that the rail sits idle and unused.

[tanker]

How long are they going to drag out the death of this thing? Just rip up the tracks already the line is toast.

[LJ]

[splashflash]

everyone is excited about taking a bus to Duncan I’m sure.

I get it. But at least buses are flexible, and highway improvements for buses at least usually provide tangible grade and curvature improvements for motorists too.

Well, as for buses. how about this one?

https://www.autoevol...en-152369.html#

[FogPub]

Buses on lanes to Duncan would take 60 to 65 minutes compared to 54 minutes to 74 minutes. A $1,007 million rail project would get passengers to Duncan in 65 minutes..

If it's already too expensive to widen a lot of the Malahat to four lanes as it is, by the time they make space to put bus lanes on it as well that rail cost might start looking pretty good...

[splashflash]

His estimates are ridiculously flawed as they compare Operational dollars for buses against Operating and Capital costs including the cost of the route itself for commuter rail. I'd be embarrassed.

If you live somewhere that won't benefit from another route into town, you'll cling onto a $1 Billion estimate. If you could benefit from the train, then you'll use an estimates like the one from the MOTI IBI study at $69 Million.

Litman's table 3 does include capital costs. I don't know what you are talking about when you say capital is omitted; it is not. Cost per trip is a combo of the operating and capital costs, shown in column E. What surprises me is that Litman has a cost / user histogram, which shows the highway options stack up well to enhanced TDM using buses.

Courtenay to Vic West rail is appallingly economically bad. The line north of Nanaimo should have been turned into a trail years ago. That reduces the $1 billion to something like $600 million, if an enhanced $600 million Langford to Vic West 6 station line is not included.

So let's use $350 million. Even the ICF says $350 million is needed for the railway, a far cry from the $69 million now almost a decade old. Duncan to Vic West - only upgrades would be similar per user cost as the Saanich Inlet bridges.

Bus capital costs of rolling stock are simply low compared to the gargantuan capital costs of rail, just to get to 60 km/hr speeds along the Malahat.

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Edited by splashflash, 10 December 2020 - 11:52 PM.

[splashflash]

If it's already too expensive to widen a lot of the Malahat to four lanes as it is, by the time they make space to put bus lanes on it as well that rail cost might start looking pretty good...

Not good at all because the route is so twisty and little in the way of a network is created, so ridership is low. Both capital and operating cost is high to get a less than mediocre system. The Malahat Highway stays congested with very little benefit to motorists.

Todd Litman posits that diversion from motor vehicles can occur with buses that alleviate the congestion.

Edited by splashflash, 11 December 2020 - 12:22 AM.

[Mike K.]

The Malahat doesn’t have a congestion issue until you hit West Shore Parkway.

[Victoria Watcher]

The Malahat doesn’t have a congestion issue until you hit West Shore Parkway.

and even then it’s less than 18 hours out of each 168 hour week.

[Mike K.]

With the addition of a second outbound lane traffic flows much better past Leigh and zipper merges at ice cream mountain. It’s pretty good.

[Victoria Watcher]

Marten added that she plans to start advocating to have barriers built at Goldstream Trestle.

“Did Andre really want to do it or did he just have a moment of weakness?” said Marten. “If there was a barrier, would he have stopped and re-thought his decision? Now, we will never know.”


https://www.vicnews....-langford-teen/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 11 January 2021 - 04:44 PM.

[Victoria Watcher]

Denise Courtemanche told the Times Colonist last week that she’s concerned about the lack of mental-health resources in B.C., especially amid the ­pandemic, when many are struggling with depression and ­isolation.

 

Martin said the family would like to see barriers on the Goldstream Trestle to prevent other people from jumping off it. The community intends to install a sign that says: “Tomorrow is another day. Keep walking.”

 

Langford Mayor Stew Young said he’s supportive of any preventative measure on the trestle that would keep people safe.

 

The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, which oversees B.C. Parks, said the trestle falls outside the boundaries of Goldstream ­Provincial Park. It is along the E&N rail corridor which is managed by the Island Corridor Foundation.

 

The foundation’s CEO, Larry Stevenson, was asked about the possibility of barriers on the trestle. Stevenson said in an email: “We are very saddened by this tragic loss however we are not in a position to comment at this time.”

 

 

 

https://www.timescol...orts-1.24265922

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 January 2021 - 07:01 AM.

[Jackerbie]

^ IIRC, walking on the trestle is technically considered trespassing. If any barrier are going up, it will be a fence to keep people off of it entirely, not safety rails.

[On the Level]

Litman's table 3 does include capital costs. I don't know what you are talking about when you say capital is omitted; it is not. Cost per trip is a combo of the operating and capital costs, shown in column E. What surprises me is that Litman has a cost / user histogram, which shows the highway options stack up well to enhanced TDM using buses.

Courtenay to Vic West rail is appallingly economically bad. The line north of Nanaimo should have been turned into a trail years ago. That reduces the $1 billion to something like $600 million, if an enhanced $600 million Langford to Vic West 6 station line is not included.

So let's use $350 million. Even the ICF says $350 million is needed for the railway, a far cry from the $69 million now almost a decade old. Duncan to Vic West - only upgrades would be similar per user cost as the Saanich Inlet bridges.

Bus capital costs of rolling stock are simply low compared to the gargantuan capital costs of rail, just to get to 60 km/hr speeds along the Malahat.

 

I went back to the original PDF to confirm what those tables are trying to imply but it still isn't very helpful.  Widening just the Malihat as compared to Bus service to Duncan as compared to rail to Courtney?  It also assumes that only one of the options will be needed.  

 

The cost estimates are all wonky as well with much of bus operational and capital costs missing.   In fact, it doesn't even show any capital costs for buses but states a mix of buses including high capacity which are approaching $1M a piece.  The report uses a recovery of 30% which is the goal of transit, but transit has never been able to get anywhere close to this target so why are figures that are know to be incorrect used?  

 

My guess is that the purpose of the report was more political and factual.

[Victoria Watcher]

^ IIRC, walking on the trestle is technically considered trespassing. If any barrier are going up, it will be a fence to keep people off of it entirely, not safety rails.

 

that would have to be quite some fence.  probably with barbed wire too.

[Victoria Watcher]

It was only after his sister died by suicide there in July that Vincent Gornall made the hike up to the Goldstream Trestle to stand where she last stood.

 

 

Looking at the disused rail line and the Niagara Creek Canyon below, Gornall wondered why barriers hadn’t been put up — especially since he was told by the RCMP that multiple people take their lives at that spot every year.

 

 

 

 

https://www.timescol...stle-1.24268353

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 16 January 2021 - 07:08 AM.