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May says she's leaning to run against Lunn


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#21 yodsaker

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 10:58 AM

but the man is honest and acts on his principles

notwithstanding his association with the impeccable Bruce Hallsor....

#22 Chris J

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 11:17 AM

This really has nothing to do about Lunn. For me it is more about the party in power.
Regardless of the job he does here in this community, a vote for anyone running as a conservative is a vote for Harper, and that is the issue I'm addressing.
Whether vote splitting is really an issue in the riding was my first concern, and the impression I get from a couple people is that it isn't. However, if Lewis's votes, (and the 3000 votes that West got, though some NDPers would vote for anyone to get the funding to the party) went to Penn, she would have won the riding.
At the same time, having one more Liberal in Ottawa would not have kept the Conservatives out of power. Having the Liberals in power, or the NDP or the Greens for that matter would not satisfy me, but would be the lesser of the evils.
This is just one riding, but the Greens ran candidates in every riding, which is a bigger issue to me than where May runs. So how many ridings did they split? If they do the same thing again next election, what will the damage be?
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#23 Bernard

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 11:17 AM

but the man is honest and acts on his principles

notwithstanding his association with the impeccable Bruce Hallsor....


I have known Bruce for years, Bruce is a very honest person. He used the rules as the existed to the advantage of his candidate, the problem lies with the rules and not with the conduct of Bruce Hallsor or anyone with Gary Lunn's campaign.

Bruce is the embodiment of sober second thought.

The changes to the Elections Act made during the final days of Jean Chretien have created some bizarre and unintended consequences. It was a badly written law and created huge grey areas to be exploited within the rules. The Conservatives tried to close most of these loopholes in the fall of 2008, but the Liberals, NDP and Bloc flipped out about the changes and threatened to topple the government.

#24 Chris J

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 11:19 AM

would the reforms that Lunns supports prevent a repeat of what happened with halsor in this election?
(edit: in rereading the last post I infer that the Conservatives would have changed this already, but since they were unable to, they took advantage of it anyway. so what is the point in advocating reform when you go ahead and do what you claim to want to stop?)
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#25 Bernard

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 11:46 AM

This really has nothing to do about Lunn. For me it is more about the party in power.
Regardless of the job he does here in this community, a vote for anyone running as a conservative is a vote for Harper, and that is the issue I'm addressing.
Whether vote splitting is really an issue in the riding was my first concern, and the impression I get from a couple people is that it isn't. However, if Lewis's votes, (and the 3000 votes that West got, though some NDPers would vote for anyone to get the funding to the party) went to Penn, she would have won the riding.
At the same time, having one more Liberal in Ottawa would not have kept the Conservatives out of power. Having the Liberals in power, or the NDP or the Greens for that matter would not satisfy me, but would be the lesser of the evils.
This is just one riding, but the Greens ran candidates in every riding, which is a bigger issue to me than where May runs. So how many ridings did they split? If they do the same thing again next election, what will the damage be?


The concept of vote splitting is an electoral math that is not realistic to apply in the ways that most people do. What tends to happen is that people do not vote if their choice is not on the ballot.

In the case of SGI, the people that vote Green are solid support and not going to vote for someone else if there is no Green on the ballot.

The vote for Lunn went up from two sources - right of centre voters that had not voted in 2004 and 2006 because Reform/Canadian Alliance was not on the balllot and from New Democrats that voted for him.

Some of the New Democrat voters did move to the Liberals, but some of the voted for Gary Lunn. The single largest group stayed home and did not vote. Still the NDP managed to take 3667 votes. For a hardcore New Democrat there is no alternative to the NDP. Do not forget that the early Reform party had a minority strain of blue collar NDP supporters, people looking for a populist approach.

In BC the most likely shift for a voter is from the NDP to the Conservatives and vice versa if they change their party preference.

About 4000 of the Liberal voters came from Liberal supporters that did not vote in 2006 or 2004.

The potential Conservative vote in SGI is simply too far ahead for the riding to be lost by the right. The only reason it would be lost is if there was a large number of conservatives who decide not to vote because they are unhappy with Harper governing too much like a Liberal, but if that were to happen in this riding, there would be a huge national Liberal landslide.

#26 Bernard

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 11:48 AM

would the reforms that Lunns supports prevent a repeat of what happened with halsor in this election?
(edit: in rereading the last post I infer that the Conservatives would have changed this already, but since they were unable to, they took advantage of it anyway. so what is the point in advocating reform when you go ahead and do what you claim to want to stop?)


I do not have the full details in front of my, but my memory is that a number of the loopholes the Conservatives exploited would be closed. The Conservatives would also have taken the biggest financial hit from the proposed changes to the rules. Not going ahead with the changes benefits the Conservatives more than the other parties.

#27 Bernard

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Posted 20 August 2009 - 11:11 AM

Gary Lunn is a f***ing douchebag.


and what did he do to you to make you say that? I assume it is something personal that he has done so it would interesting to hear what it was.

#28 Bob Fugger

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Posted 20 August 2009 - 11:31 AM

I think VicDuck was just in a mood yesterday, as he was dropping f*** bombs like a rapper drops rhymes! ;)

#29 North Shore

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Posted 20 August 2009 - 11:48 AM

The concept of vote splitting is an electoral math that is not realistic to apply in the ways that most people do. What tends to happen is that people do not vote if their choice is not on the ballot.

In the case of SGI, the people that vote Green are solid support and not going to vote for someone else if there is no Green on the ballot.

The vote for Lunn went up from two sources - right of centre voters that had not voted in 2004 and 2006 because Reform/Canadian Alliance was not on the balllot and from New Democrats that voted for him.

Some of the New Democrat voters did move to the Liberals, but some of the voted for Gary Lunn. The single largest group stayed home and did not vote. Still the NDP managed to take 3667 votes. For a hardcore New Democrat there is no alternative to the NDP. Do not forget that the early Reform party had a minority strain of blue collar NDP supporters, people looking for a populist approach.


You've got to be kidding, correct?
If you look at the drop in NDP support between 2006, and 2008, it's 13,778 votes - the Liberals rose by 7912 (a 13% rise from '06), and the Cons by 3572 (+6%), that leaves 2300 who didn't bother to show. Total votes cast dropped from 65,721 to 64,448.

Above, you've posted that SGI is a "Conservative" riding. I beg to differ. It's a slightly left-of-centre place in which the 'right' party benefits from 3 parties going after the same group of votes. It's too bad that we couldn't run an STV-style election here federally, as I'd reckon that the results would be markedly different than at present..
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#30 Bernard

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Posted 20 August 2009 - 02:36 PM

You've got to be kidding, correct?
If you look at the drop in NDP support between 2006, and 2008, it's 13,778 votes - the Liberals rose by 7912 (a 13% rise from '06), and the Cons by 3572 (+6%), that leaves 2300 who didn't bother to show. Total votes cast dropped from 65,721 to 64,448.

Above, you've posted that SGI is a "Conservative" riding. I beg to differ. It's a slightly left-of-centre place in which the 'right' party benefits from 3 parties going after the same group of votes. It's too bad that we couldn't run an STV-style election here federally, as I'd reckon that the results would be markedly different than at present..


And in the elections in 1993, 1997 and 2000 the riding had more than 50% of the people vote for the right wing parties. It is by nature right wing, though not a Fraser Valley right wing riding.

The Liberals are a centre to centre right party, this is why many New Democrats will never vote for them. The Liberals, Greens and NDP are not going after the same set of voters, all of them overlap with the each other but also with the Conservatives.

If one looks at polls indicating second choices, Liberals are more likely to vote Conservative than anything else, New Democrats are more likely to not vote than vote Liberal. When the question is asking federally or provincially about second choices, Green voters are only marginally more likely to vote for a party on the left than one on the right as a second choice and neither is as high as not voting.

The reality is that if someone's preferred choice is not on the ballot, that person is very likely to not vote at all. One can see this very clearly when one compares BC provincial election voter turn out with federal election turn outs. With fewer choices on the ballot provincially, there is a lower number of people that come out to vote. At the moment in BC there is no provincial Conservative party and therefore many federal Conservative supporters do not vote provincially.

Short of a lot of Conservative voters staying home during an election or the Liberals moving far enough to the right, there is little or no chance for the Liberals to win SGI in a federal election.

Always keep in mind that only about 30% of the population votes in every election that they can - the majority of people chose vote in some elections some of the time. It is this floating group of people that changes from election to election that is the biggest deciding factor in an election result.

#31 LJ

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Posted 20 August 2009 - 08:59 PM

Gary Lunn is a f***ing douchebag.


Brilliant repartee. Sure adds to the conversation.
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#32 Holden West

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Posted 20 August 2009 - 09:10 PM

I think VicDuck was just in a mood yesterday, as he was dropping f*** bombs like a rapper drops rhymes! ;)



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#33 arfenarf

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Posted 21 August 2009 - 08:00 AM

I think VicDuck was just in a mood yesterday, as he was dropping f*** bombs like a rapper drops rhymes! ;)


He won himself a detention in my Ignore file for a little while. First time I've had to use the feature here at VV - speaks well to the overall quality of discourse around here!

#34 yodsaker

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Posted 21 August 2009 - 01:55 PM

He was clear and concise!:D

#35 Bob Fugger

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Posted 21 August 2009 - 01:57 PM

...speaks well to the overall quality of discourse around here!


Not really sure how you can generalize the entire discourse based on the expletive-laced ramblings of one individual...

#36 arfenarf

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Posted 21 August 2009 - 02:39 PM

Not really sure how you can generalize the entire discourse based on the expletive-laced ramblings of one individual...


You're reading sarcasm where none was meant. If, in several years of lurking lots and posting occasionally, I've only ever felt the need to filter one turkey, I take that as a sign that this place works well.

 



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