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20XX Federal election - Saanich/Gulf Islands - Renee Hetherington (Liberal)


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#1 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 12 September 2009 - 06:05 PM

http://voterenee.ca/about/

She beat Kit Spence for the nomination tonight.

http://www.kitspence...on/Welcome.html

As Rob Randall says, "unless Gary Lunn is abducted by aliens", no one but him is gonna win this thing.

#2 CharlieFoxtrot

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 07:40 AM

Found this in the Technology section:

http://www.timescolo...9386/story.html

Oh goody - talking about vote splitting already!!!

#3 UrbanRail

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 07:11 PM

http://voterenee.ca/about/

She beat Kit Spence for the nomination tonight.

http://www.kitspence...on/Welcome.html

As Rob Randall says, "unless Gary Lunn is abducted by aliens", no one but him is gonna win this thing.




I will contact my alien friends and see what they can do. :)

#4 North Shore

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Posted 13 September 2009 - 08:21 PM

+1, Urban!

CharlieFoxtrot, the only vote splitting happening this go-around is because of the darned parachutist Elizabeth Meeeee, and her delusional campaign team..:rolleyes:
Say, what's that mountain goat doing up here in the mist?

#5 Bernard

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Posted 14 September 2009 - 01:39 PM

Loss of Gary Lunn would be the loss of one of the strongest voices in Ottawa for electoral reform of the House of Commons

#6 spanky123

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Posted 14 September 2009 - 02:42 PM

Gary has 0% chance of losing with Hetherington facing off against May.

Until the parties start realizing that dropping candidates into ridings to meet their political agendas angers voters then Gary gets a pass each time.

Ask Lady Godiva :-)

#7 mat

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Posted 14 September 2009 - 05:14 PM

+1, Urban!

CharlieFoxtrot, the only vote splitting happening this go-around is because of the darned parachutist Elizabeth Meeeee, and her delusional campaign team..:rolleyes:


Not sure about this - there are some interesting trending polls showing that

a: Most Canadians do not want an election (that's a given)
b: if an election is called then already 'called' votes ie: those who always vote conservative, will likely turn out in larger numbers
c: floating votes will be more strategic
d: both voting camps will be looking for a majority government.

Remember there are floating votes between Conservative and Liberals, NDP and Liberals and NDP and Greens, back to Liberals. If we have a fall election then much of the voter preference might not be simply policy, but who has the best chance of creating a majority. That is interesting - I don't think an election has ever been trended that way previously.

#8 Bernard

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Posted 15 September 2009 - 09:32 AM

Not sure about this - there are some interesting trending polls showing that

a: Most Canadians do not want an election (that's a given)
b: if an election is called then already 'called' votes ie: those who always vote conservative, will likely turn out in larger numbers
c: floating votes will be more strategic
d: both voting camps will be looking for a majority government.

Remember there are floating votes between Conservative and Liberals, NDP and Liberals and NDP and Greens, back to Liberals. If we have a fall election then much of the voter preference might not be simply policy, but who has the best chance of creating a majority. That is interesting - I don't think an election has ever been trended that way previously.


It is rare to find a poll that says the public wants an election, but calling of the election is rarely a deciding factor in how people vote. An early election is most likely to depress voter turn-out.

The older and more educated a person is, the more likely they are to vote. The older voters are more likely to vote Liberal or Conservative, seniors polled are 80% likely to vote for one of those parties versus about 65% for the whole population and 48% for people under 25. University educated people are more than 70% likely to vote for one of the two major parties.

If voter turn out is down, the Liberals and Conservatives will benefit by winning more seats.

As to anyone other than Gary Lunn winning in SGI, keep in mind that it is only in the last couple of elections that the right wing vote has been less than 50% in the riding. IN 1993, 97 and 2000 the right took over 50% of the vote each time. When the NDP won in 1988 the right still took 46% of the vote versus 35% for the NDP.

There are about 5000 former Tories and Reformers in SGI that are not coming out to vote in the elections. There are also about 5000 New Democrats in the riding that did not vote in 2008 that are likely to come back to the NDP in the next election.

The core strength of the right wing in SGI is simply too large for it to be overcome by someone else.

#9 Rob Randall

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Posted 24 January 2011 - 08:47 PM

I was just called by an automated pollster asking about the important issues, leader impressions and voting intentions for the Saanich/Gulf Islands riding.

#10 Coreyburger

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Posted 24 January 2011 - 10:05 PM

A fall election is unlikely due to the huge number of provincial elections coming up. Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland & Labradour, and PEI all go to the poll in 2011.

#11 jklymak

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Posted 24 January 2011 - 10:57 PM

^i'm not sure I follow what that has to do with BC.

 



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