748 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

Grab some coffee for this one.

 

It has become clear beyond any doubt now that the CRD's rainfall calculations, and therefore the basis of our precipitation/water supply narrative, does not take into consideration snowfall amounts.

 

We have a clear example of the CRD's data not capturing all precipitation but only rainfall. Last year we theorized that maybe they convert the snow accumulation into rain, but it still wasn't adding up to what the conversion should have been (roughly 10:1 snow:rainfall) so the verdict was out. 2019 ended with below-average rainfall. Indeed it did, but it certainly does not appear to have ended with below-average precipitation if we would have factored in the precipitation that fell as snow, not just rain.

 

Take this month. On January 12th, 2020 the reservoirs had recorded a cumulative 887.1mm of rainfall, equal to 99% of historic Sep 1 - Jan 12 precipitation. By January 19th, the reservoirs had record ...wait for it ...892.1mm, now slipping to 93% of the average.

 

Interesting.

 

So while the south Island and especially the Sooke Hills experienced a heavy snowfall that saw the entire region blanketed by 30cm of snow, at least, over the span of several days between the 12th and 19th, the CRD's rainfall, and therefore precipitation data, only showed an increase of 5mm. I also believe that given my experiences of snowfall up in those hills, what we see down in the city is quite a bit less snow accumulation than they'll see up there.

 

Are we experiencing drier conditions, according to weather stations and the reservoir data, or are we experiencing more snow, which does not get calculated as rainfall and therefore leads to claims like "as of January 19, 2020, the region saw only 93% of its average rainfall, leading to concerns over shifting precipitation patterns."

 

Because I'll tell ya, given the snow they would have seen up there the tally in mm would have been between 40 and 70mm based on 40-70cm of cumulative snow up in the mountains.

 

Normally we have photos that correspond with the data, but there are no photos posted as of January 5th.

[rjag]

bit of both I suspect. They go by rainfall gauges and if the gauge doesn't register then it didn't happen even though there's a foot of snow all around the gauge.

 

I'm sure theres a bit of theater at play here as well. How do you get buy-in to the Greta agenda when your 10 year average and other long term stats dont show much variation. 

 

Some winters we get more snow, others we get less, Some summers are drier than other summers.....its the trend line that is important. Whats that doing?

[Mike K.]

Right, the gauge is what it is and I understand it's not designed to measure snow.

 

But if concerns over precipitation are as pronounced as they say they are a simple footnote is all it takes to identify that while rainfall was down: "4 days of snow accumulation were observed." You don't even need to calculate the snow amount, just identify that precipitation did not fall as rain.

[Mike K.]

Some winters we get more snow, others we get less, Some summers are drier than other summers.....its the trend line that is important. Whats that doing?

 

It's flat as a pancake. Last year we would have no doubt passed above the annual average had it not been for weeks of snow precipitation, including the initial dump that brought 1.5-2' of snow to hillier areas of the CRD.

[lanforod]

The percentage of precipitation then used to include snowfall, and now doesn't? That's basically what you're saying. Is that true?

[Mike K.]

I don't think it ever did.

 

But in a region where snow accumulation is rare, you could have one year where there is zero snow accumulation and 103% of annual rainfall, and another (like 2019) where you have weeks of precipitation only as snow and the final tally is 94% of annual rainfall. Sound the alarm bells, right?

 

Nobody has noted that there were 20 days of precipitation as snow in 2019, which means that that 94% sounds a lot worse than it actually was.

[Victoria Watcher]

why does it matter how much it rains or how much it snows?  the key and only important information should be "how much water entered the reservoir". and i presume also "how much evaporated" (in summer if that's even a significant figure).

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 21 January 2020 - 09:07 AM.

[Mike K.]

We're not provided with those figures.

 

We also don't know when/how often the reservoirs are flushed. So it's difficult to have a baseline when the taps can open any time for as long as the operator wants. We saw last year how the Goldstream reservoir wasn't filling while the Sooke was, for example.

[Victoria Watcher]

So it's difficult to have a baseline when the taps can open any time for as long as the operator wants. 

 

that's true too.  i took one of those crd watershed tours years ago.  i'll try to find a picture from that that i took of the operator exactly doing that.  working the controls at the reservoir.  it's quite interesting.

[Victoria Watcher]

that's true too.  i took one of those crd watershed tours years ago.  i'll try to find a picture from that that i took of the operator exactly doing that.  working the controls at the reservoir.  it's quite interesting.

 

oh here it is.

 

 

the dog bottom right i forgot his name.  was so long ago.  started with a "t".

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 21 January 2020 - 09:26 AM.

[Mike K.]

Lol!

 

Now I'm not disparaging the CRD, let me be clear here. I'm just saying that these rainfall amounts lead to a lot of hysteria circa 2017/2018 when we had that wildfire smoke. Suddenly we were becoming drier, etc, there was less rain, etc. But were the winters just more snowy up in the Sooke Hills? Maybe. I've sure come across some deep, deep snow in those hills and you'd never know it down in the city.

[Nparker]

oh here it is.

 

 

the dog bottom right i forgot his name.  was so long ago.  started with a "t".

Fake news! This photo was clearly taken at Hillside Mall over this past weekend. 

[Nparker]

I suppose it won't be long before we have mandatory water usage restrictions in place again.

https://www.crd.bc.c...vrsn=f82872cc_2

[mbjj]

My mum used to tell me a story from around this time of year in 1950. Her mum had just arrived from England and they were living in Duncan. They went for a drive to Crofton and got trapped in the car by rising water. My mum was heavily pregnant with my brother and they had to be rescued. I grew up in Duncan and areas regularly flooded, esp. down by my schools on Beverly Street. One year a friend had to stay with us due to his house near the Cowichan River being flooded. Although the rainfall was certainly heavy this past weekend, I don't find it too much out of the ordinary.

[Nparker]

Rainfall: Sep 1 2019 - Feb 2 2020
Average (1914 - 2019): 1,076.3 mm
2019/2020                     1249.4 mm (116% of average)

https://www.crd.bc.c...vrsn=70b07ecc_2

[Mike K.]

^and that's not including the snowfall we had last month.

[Mike K.]

My water rate has risen from $2.1 to $2.2 per unit, roughly 5%.

Twice the rate of inflation, but who’s counting, right?

[Nparker]

My property taxes went up 24% in 2019.  12 times the rate of inflation.

[Mike K.]

Yeah, well, blame your landlord for raising your rent.

[Mike K.]

March begins with 112% of rainfall averages between September 1 and March 1, totalling 1,412.3mm.