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2011 Federal Election - General Discussion


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#21 gstc84

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 05:05 PM

That's not much of a loss based on her performance last time around.


:confused:

To myself and many people I know, Green and non-Green supporters alike, she was the clear winner of the 2008 debates. She often comes off as the only one capable of mature, constructive discussion of issues and offering creative solutions, rather than repeating buzzwords, partisan rhetoric and bickering with the other leaders.

I don't vote Green, but I'm very disappointed she's being excluded this time and will be signing any petition I can find. With 8-ish% of the popular vote, regardless of whether they have any seats, this is an affront to democracy.

#22 phx

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 05:30 PM

:confused:

To myself and many people I know, Green and non-Green supporters alike, she was the clear winner of the 2008 debates.


In my opinion, she was way out of her league and had no business being there.

I'm surprised you thought she won the debate. She might have seemed to do well, but it was only because the others were pulling their punches.

#23 gstc84

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 05:40 PM

She presented very well, and at least she showed up with something new to say. I feel I already know what Harper, Iggy and Layton will say already, a few weeks before the debate. The only reason now even to watch is because Duceppe is usually entertaining as hell.

#24 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 06:06 PM

I don't vote Green, but I'm very disappointed she's being excluded this time and will be signing any petition I can find. With 8-ish% of the popular vote, regardless of whether they have any seats, this is an affront to democracy.


Private (and the CBC I guess) broadcasters deciding who they have on TV is up to them.
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#25 rjag

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 06:22 PM

:confused:

To myself and many people I know, Green and non-Green supporters alike, she was the clear winner of the 2008 debates. She often comes off as the only one capable of mature, constructive discussion of issues and offering creative solutions, rather than repeating buzzwords, partisan rhetoric and bickering with the other leaders.


While I agree that if your party can pull close to a million votes then your platform deserves to be heard I disagree that she was the clear winner. Its amazing what you can get away with when you know you wont be the 'winner' Thats why Gilles is so entertaining and an call a spade a spade etc. If you know you dont stand a chance then you tend to be more relaxed and tend o say things that are less politically correct.

Anyway it seems its the networks that have issues with her as all the others have said bring her in.

#26 LJ

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 07:17 PM

^ ^^ Agree. These debates are privately funded and they can have anyone they want or exclude anyone. I think Duceppe should be excluded, he has nothing to offer the ROC, and gets away with doing and saying anything he wants pandering to his captive supporters who will not abandon him for one of the "anglo's".

The debates can cause some people to change the way they vote but it not because of some stirring rhetoric they heard, it is usually because someone "misspoke". Not a very valid way to choose IMO.
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#27 Schnook

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 08:21 PM

Do we really want every unrepresented minor party to be in the debates? There aren't enough lecterns in Canada for this.

It would be a zoo, not a debate. :rolleyes: (Registered Political Parties and Parties Eligible for Registration)

The other leaders have indicated they have no objection to including Ms. May and that should be good enough. If they have any stonez they should tell the networks include her or no debate.

It might be hard to watch, if her interview on CFAX is an indication. She seems in over her head.

SGI stepping stone for May (Peninsula News Review, 30-Mar)

During the last federal election in my local riding of Central Nova in Nova Scotia, Elizabeth May announced she was running in a district she was not from nor had any ties to. Before, during and after she lost Ms. May told anyone and everyone that she was not going anywhere and Central Nova was now her home. “We will be staying in force in Central Nova because I'm not going anywhere.” - Elizabeth May, the Globe and Mail October 15, 2009.


She along with many others will likely drop out after this one. I know some on the West Coast are devoted, but a lot of Canadians are tired of "Global Warming" as a thesis, never mind a platform.

#28 Bingo

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Posted 31 March 2011 - 06:48 AM

Federal election signs being damaged in Capital Region

http://www.cfax1070....news&Itemid=155

At the south end of the Cedar Hill Golf course on Finlayson Road, I saw a sign for Conservative candidate Patrick Hunt and close by a sign for Conservative Gary Lunn. Seems a bit confusing.

#29 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 31 March 2011 - 07:24 AM

Federal election signs being damaged in Capital Region

http://www.cfax1070....news&Itemid=155

At the south end of the Cedar Hill Golf course on Finlayson Road, I saw a sign for Conservative candidate Patrick Hunt and close by a sign for Conservative Gary Lunn. Seems a bit confusing.


If anyone is confused about what riding they live in, perhaps they should not be voting.

I'll be voting, and of course once again, my candidate will lose. Not sure if I've ever had a winning federal candidate in all my years of voting.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#30 yodsaker

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Posted 31 March 2011 - 09:15 AM

Interesting perspective this morning from Chantal Hebert, Toronto Star.

http://www.thestar.c...on-debates?bn=1

#31 Rob Randall

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Posted 31 March 2011 - 11:13 PM

Savoie rival Causton opens Victoria campaign office

By Robert Randall • Published on Thursday, March 31, 2011

Liberal candidate Chris Causton officially opened his campaign office late Thursday afternoon in a familiar location–932 Pandora Avenue, next to the popular Relish and Cranberry’s Cafe eateries and across the street from the Our Place shelter. The former auto glass storefront was used by Barry Hobbis as a campaign office in his failed attempt at a council seat in the 2010 civic by-election.

Communications expert Mat Wright handled the technology and social media duties for the Hobbis campaign and is handling the same duties for Causton this time around.

Wright says they will try some of the initiatives that met with success last year, including at least one telephone town hall meeting. Hobbis’ town hall teleconference, British Coumbia’s first, saw nearly 5,000 Victorians taking part in the interactive chat.

Causton says his team will not be placing any lawn signs on city boulevards or other public property, citing environmental concerns, visual pollution and vandalism as primary reasons.

more...

#32 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 12:52 AM

...very interesting...

I also think they have their work cut out for them. Savoie is very popular, and is very prominent in the media around here. Causton is well-liked in Oak Bay, but I'm not sure there are enough motivated federal Liberal voters there to get him enough votes.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#33 G-Man

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 06:01 AM

The idea to not have signs seems risky.

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#34 Rob Randall

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 06:12 AM

The idea to not have signs seems risky.


He will have signs, but only on the lawns of supporters. There are a lot of sign haters out there but they may not be Liberal voters.

A lot of signs (including mine) were vandalized by a childish candidate in 2008. This is less likely to happen on a private lawn.

A sign on a lawn has much more impact than a random boulevard sign as it shows endorsement by a neighbour.

#35 Rob Randall

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 06:19 AM

...very interesting...

I also think they have their work cut out for them. Savoie is very popular, and is very prominent in the media around here. Causton is well-liked in Oak Bay, but I'm not sure there are enough motivated federal Liberal voters there to get him enough votes.


They will be operating on the premise that support for Savoie is shallow, and that if you scratch the surface you will uncover deep Liberal roots. That's why David Anderson was on hand yesterday. He was a popular Liberal MP for Victoria until he quit and the NDP's Savoie got elected.

It will be interesting how the Songhees votes. The wealthy residents there might not be traditional NDP supporters but the marina controversy may put them in Savoie's camp.

#36 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 06:25 AM

They will be operating on the premise that support for Savoie is shallow, and that if you scratch the surface you will uncover deep Liberal roots. That's why David Anderson was on hand yesterday. He was a popular Liberal MP for Victoria until he quit and the NDP's Savoie got elected.

It will be interesting how the Songhees votes. The wealthy residents there might not be traditional NDP supporters but the marina controversy may put them in Savoie's camp.


Yes, it is probably interesting to look at the poll-by-poll results history in this riding.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#37 Rob Randall

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 06:30 AM

Most Federal candidates will have access to much more detailed polling and voting data than we civic candidates had. It's practically block-by-block.

#38 Bernard

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 10:26 AM

Denise Savoie did not win with a large margin in 2006. She did have a decent number last time.

Historically the Victoria riding has had been more Conservative than anything else till the NDP won in 1988, though the combined Reform and PC vote was slightly more than the NDP.

In 1993 and 1997 the combined Reform/CA and PC vote was higher than the vote David Anderson got for the Liberals.

2008, 2000 and 1984 are the last three elections in which any candidate broke 40% in Victoria.

The Conservatives are close enough that with a bad swing against the NDP nationally or a shift of voters to Causton, that they could win.

Can Causton win? Not likely, but not impossible. He has a several thousand people that normally vote Liberal that stayed home last time that will likely vote this time.

My current estimate in Victoria is the following result
Denise Savioe - 35%
Patrick Hunt (Cons) - 30%
Chris Causton (Liberal) - 30%
Greens - 5%

This is by no means a safe riding for the NDP though the odds are strongly in their favour.

For the record, it is rare that the ridings that were close in one election are close in the next election. The close ridings in this election are going to surprise people. In 1993 no one thought that NDP MP John Brewin would slaughtered at the polls. The number 1 and 2 parties in 1988 went to 3rd and 4th in 1993

#39 Bingo

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 11:06 AM

My current estimate in Victoria is the following result.
Denise Savioe - 35%
Patrick Hunt (Cons) - 30%
Chris Causton (Liberal) - 30%
Greens - 5%


I like both of the leading candidates. I predict Savioe 42%, Causton 35%, Hunt 17%, Greens, 6 %.

#40 Bernard

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Posted 01 April 2011 - 04:55 PM

I like both of the leading candidates. I predict Savioe 42%, Causton 35%, Hunt 17%, Greens, 6 %.


Conservatives have never gone below 22% (21.83% to be exact) and there was a special circumstance in that election.

There is nothing to indicate that a lot of Conservative support from last time will be lost. Much below 30% is not likely. The only reason it would go down is if a lot of people stayed home, like in 2004. From what I see of the campaign, that is not happening.

Causton will get about 3000 to 4000 Liberal voters that did not vote last time and then he will pull vote from Savoie and the Greens, but much not from the Conservatives.

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