164 replies to this topic

[Phil McAvity]

Conservatives have never gone below 22% (21.83% to be exact) and there was a special circumstance in that election.

Which election are you talking about, and what was the "special circumstance"?

I'm not sure who I will help out in this election, the Greens or the Conservatives, because I want both of them to do well.

[Bernard]

The 2004 candidate was an unpopular one with many local conservatives and David Turner looked like he might win for the NDP - his time as mayor made him very unpopular with the right.

A large amount of the NDP leaning voters that supported Anderson in 2000 to ensure the CA did not win went home to the NDP in 2004.

So 2004 was the worst election for the right in Victoria and very first time the right did not win or come second.

Also, with no resources, Patrick Hunt managed to win 27.7% of the vote in 1993. He also has more money and volunteers than the Liberals and is level with the NDP on both.

One election of over 40% for Denise Savoie is not an indication of any long term trend in this riding.

[Phil McAvity]

The 2004 candidate was an unpopular one with many local conservatives......

It would make things easier if you weren't so coy so could you please just come out and say what you mean because I had to go searching to figure out who you're even talking about. I don't really like scolding people but what I like even less is having to waste my time searching for something that could be made clear and obvious. I had no idea that Logan Wenham was unpopular but it sure explains why the conservative vote was so low that year.

[spanky123]

People in Victoria always seem to want to vote for someone from a party that has no chance of winning the election. Ensures that it gives them something to complain about after the fact!

I am not a NDP supporter but it will be difficult to unseat Denise. Patrick is unremarkable and Chris will wind up pulling votes from the right for that very reason.

[Bernard]

2004

There was someone that wanted to run for the party that many did not want. In the end Logan Wenham was convinced to run for the nomination and he won. Logan is a decent guy but some things early on that pushed a number of people away from the party. The nomination battle also drove some people away.

At the same time David Turner of the NDP was a serious threat to win the seat, his unpopularity with the right in this city is legendary. This made it easier for many conservatives to vote for David Anderson, even then the Liberal vote dropped a lot.

The election is all about the numbers. The 16,000 or so core Conservatives are not going to vote for anyone but Hunt. The Liberals had a lot of people stay home in the last election. The core Liberal vote is in or around 15,000 people. The Greens will take around 5000 votes, a drop from last time.

With these numbers we are at 36,000. Given that turn out is unlikely to rise, there are only another 24,000 or so people left. I see the Liberals taking 1K from the Green and NDP, they may take some Conservative vote.

A reasonable election in my opinion
Savioe - 21,000 - 35%
Causton - 18000 - 30%
Hunt - 16000 - 27%
Giesbrecht - 5000 - 8%

Reasonable would also be
Savioe 24,000 - 40% - I honestly see this the upper end of votes she can get, the Liberal is too strong for her to meet her 2008 numbers.
Hunt 16,000 - 27%
Causton 15,000 - 25%
Giesbrecht - 5000 - 8%

[Bernard]

It would make things easier if you weren't so coy so could you please just come out and say what you mean because I had to go searching to figure out who you're even talking about. I don't really like scolding people but what I like even less is having to waste my time searching for something that could be made clear and obvious. I had no idea that Logan Wenham was unpopular but it sure explains why the conservative vote was so low that year.

The Conservative vote was also low because a lot or Reform party supporters were not happy with the new party in 2004

[Rob Randall]

Elizabeth May officially re-opens third Green Party campaign office

By Robert Randall • Published on Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May visited south Saanich late Monday afternoon and hosted an opening of the party’s newly-renovated office at the corner of Quadra and Tattersall.

Speaking to a crowd of about 50 supporters and media people, the energetic leader said that the upcoming federal election will be about “vote combining, not vote splitting”. May said that Green Party policy is attracting support from across the political spectrum and that people should not fear that a Green vote is a wasted vote.

more...

[Phil McAvity]

There was someone that wanted to run for the party that many did not want.

My last post was obviously a complete waste of time.

Why do I even bother?

[sebberry]

Canada watches its democracy erode

ON Friday, the minority Stephen Harper government fell on a confidence motion by a 156-145 vote. Speaking to the motion, Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff attacked the government for disrespecting Canadian democracy and treating parliament with contempt.

Rest of article: http://www.theaustra...x-1226030310248


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[rjag]

Canada watches its democracy erode

Rest of article: http://www.theaustra...x-1226030310248

Gee, let me guess who the author will vote for!!!

[Bernard]

Locally, some interesting things.

No party seems to have polled the Victoria riding

Only the Conservatives have polled EJDF

Greens and Conservatives have polled SGI

Sounds like the Liberals will spend their full amount in all three ridings - last time they only spent $47k in Victoria instead of roughly $90k

The NDP is going to spending more as well this time around, $35k more in EJDF and likely an extra $50k in SGI.

The Greens will spend the full amount in SGI, about $90k, up from $31k last time. In Victoria and EJDF they spent a total of $45k last time, I am not sure they will spend as much in those ridings this time.

Total campaign spending will be up more than $200k in the three ridings in this area over the six week election campaign

[Bingo]

The way all the electioneering is going on concerning the Navy Base you would think the plan is to close the whole thing, and convert it into a huge yacht basin. Don't panic the navy is staying here.

[LJ]

Gee, let me guess who the author will vote for!!!

I don't think he will be voting in our election.

[Bernard]

I am curious. Now that we are 1/3 of the way through the campaign, out in your neighbourhoods, are you seeing many signs on lawns and which signs are you seeing?

[Holden West]

All the big signs at Cedar Hill and North Dairy were destroyed last night except for Conservative Gary Lunn's signs.

Be on the lookout for a gang of thugs in Tilley hats and Top-Siders.

[Mike K.]

I am curious. Now that we are 1/3 of the way through the campaign, out in your neighbourhoods, are you seeing many signs on lawns and which signs are you seeing?

I'm surprised at the lack of signs, quite frankly. Could this mean that the general population is even more disenfranchised with federal elections now that they seem to take place in greater frequency?

[Bernard]

I'm surprised at the lack of signs, quite frankly. Could this mean that the general population is even more disenfranchised with federal elections now that they seem to take place in greater frequency?

I am wondering about this, I had expected to see a lot more signs out there. Either the campaigns are slow getting them onto lawns or there are not a lot people that want them.

I was called in the middle of this week to see if I wanted to take a sign again. I already had one as I had already call in for one the week before, but it says to me it took 9-10 days for the party to get around to getting lawn signs out.

I also am used to seeing a see of orange in this neighbourhood, it should be coming and I can only assume the NDP is not rushing to get their signs out.

[G-Man]

Part of it is that Chris causton is not putting out any signs as part of his campaign.

[yodsaker]

Part of it is that Chris causton is not putting out any signs as part of his campaign.

Not on public property but yes on private property. We were called about taking one but we prefer not to wear our hearts on our sleeves so we don't take anyone's.
Two signs on our street, one for Savoie the other for Hunt. So far.

[spanky123]

I'm surprised at the lack of signs, quite frankly. Could this mean that the general population is even more disenfranchised with federal elections now that they seem to take place in greater frequency?

Perhaps with having an election every 18 months to 2 years, local coffers are running dry and it is an expense that can be avoided.