44 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

With the VV Poll on Victoria candidates for council and mayor now closed, please feel free to share your predictions for the 2011 municipal election in Victoria. Include 8 council candidates and 1 mayoral candidate. And do not necessarily treat this as a list of who you support, but rather as a list of who you feel is likeliest to get elected.

My personal prediction is based partially on the results of the VV Poll (closed on November 15th).

Council

- Alto
- Coleman or Lucas
- Hall or Helps (both newcomers, but Helps benefits from the "Machine")
- Hunter
- Luton
- Madoff
- Thornton Joe
- Young

Mayor

- Brown

[Holden West]

My prediction:

No change at the Council table, with the exception of Shellie Gudgeon narrowly defeating Philippe Lucas for the final chair.

In order of popularity:

Thornton-Joe
Madoff
Luton
Young
Alto
Hunter
Coleman
Gudgeon
------------
Lucas
Helps
Isitt
Hall
Henry
McGrew
Lalli
Murray
Kimpton
Valentine
Turner

In contrast to 2008 when there were almost 3000 votes separating winners from losers, this match will feature many candidates fighting for last place due to the unusual amount of credible challengers and the full slate of incumbents. Because of this, Rose Henry will be pushed down in the standings to her worst showing in years.

Wild Cards:

Coleman is vulnerable and could be toppled if one of the challengers has a strong showing. The Union vote rallying around Isitt and Helps would make it happen but only if they campaign strong and knock on more doors.

[VicHockeyFan]

Hmmm, I think Coleman is safe, and Lucas is in most danger. But I would not pick Gudgeon to take his place, I'd rather lean towards Isitt or Hall taking it (I know, two ends of the political spectrum, but all the same).

I put Young in 2nd or 3rd place.

I don't know what people see in Lynn Hunter other than name recognition.

But what do I know.

[Ms. B. Havin]

T-C 'predicts' Fortin will win "handily":

There is a contested mayoral race, although incumbent Dean Fortin is expected to win handily over challengers Paul Brown, Steve Filipovic and David Shebib.

See: http://www.timescolo...html?rel=835181

I hope they're wrong. They probably also called Fortin's last election result (merely 600 votes over Rob Reid) "handily" won. You do get this awful sense from the article that Victoria's incumbents are secure. The article looked at Saanich's mayoralty race at a bit differently, probably because Cubberley has the NDP machine helping him, which around here means everything.

Guess we'll find out soon enough what the results will be.

[Scotfree]

Mayor: Dean Fortin

Councillors: Pam Madoff
Charelene Thornton-Joe
Geoff Young
Marianne Alto
Chris Coleman
John Luton
Philippe Lukas
Ben Isitt

[Nparker]

Your prediction makes me weep Scotfree.

[spanky123]

Incumbents almost always win.

Rob Reid had significant financial backing and support from the business community last time around and Fortin was new to the role as well. In addition, Rob had a fair amount of local name recognition based on his community involvement and retail role.

I like Paul Brown and think he has good ideas, but it isn't even going to be close. For the TC to call the election this early must mean that their polling has Fortin in excess of 65%.

[Mike K.]

There was a perception of support for Reid but many in the business community didn't see him as a leader at City Hall. His oddly chosen alliance with certain politically active individuals also hindered his support.

The major obstacle to Brown becoming mayor is a late campaign start. He appeared in early 2011 with a few press releases, then went silent, and in September truly hit the ground running but that was more than a month after Fortin's campaign took off.

IMO with the NDP Machine focusing a lot of its energy on Cubberly in Saanich, the discrepancy between Fortin and Brown might not be as pronounced as some might think.

[Nparker]

Incumbents almost always win.

Which is of course why term limits need to be legislated; otherwise you have the same dead wood on council for decades.

[rjag]

Which is of course why term limits need to be legislated; otherwise you have the same dead wood on council for decades.

yup

[Wally]

I am no fan of Fortin's but he played the occupy Victoria issue perfectly. He let them stay long enough to keep the left wing happy and then made sure that they were cleared out just before the election to demonstrate a leadership position. The TC is calling the election because they are right.

[Bernard]

I have an opinion for Victoria, but I also have the advantage of having a poll to work from.

Mayor - toss up - TC has no functional data to assert Fortin. All will depend on turn outs in neighbourhoods

Only Young, Thorton Joe and Maddoff are safe in re-election.

Shellie Guedegon suffers from having clear voting block to sync with. On average people vote six votes. Dean team with Helps and Isitt is six (the VLC slate). Young, Thornton Joe, Coleman and Open Victoria make for a six. Isitt, Henry, Helps, and Lucas is another likely voting combination. She will be the 2011 version of Shannon Renault.

If turn out is high in Fairfield, James Bay and Gonzales, all the Dean team but Maddoff lose. If turn out is high in the northern half of the city, Open Victoria and Chris Coleman lose.

Ben Isitt and Lisa Helps need a low turn out in the south and a very high one in the north. They also need to have Phillipe Lucas and Shellie Gudegeon do badly.

However you slice Philipe Lucas seems to be in trouble, he also has no clear allied voting block.

[GMC]

When one looks on VV to inquire about a spacific council candidate I am amazed to see that Robin Kimpton has 1750 inquiries or views vs the next one down with 912 views. Any thoughts on this trend.

It seems Barrett that despite doing well in the poll and the 1700+ views Mr Kimpton has here on VV the "old boys" are not willing to admit that perhaps he may just get elected to council. All I can say is that if in fact most of "the Dean team" gets back in they had better hope Mr Kimpton does as well because Victoria is going to need him.

[G-Man]

I think you are off Bernard. Shellie is going to poll strongest in the North end of town. She is a pillar of Quadra Hillside. I know many people around here that are voting for her. Chris Coleman also lives in this neighbourhood and I expect will continue to do quite well here.

[jklymak]

^ I'll ask you then G-Man. Do you know why Shellie is not more popular right now? She seems like a good candidate to me.

[G-Man]

Is she not popular? All I know is that she cares about my 'hood. She is a business owner so she would lose some cred with the left there.

[jklymak]

^ I dunno. It seems she did poorly in the VV polls, and no one really talks about her like she has a chance. Compared to a lot of the candidates she seems to have a lot of community service, and a solid business sense. I'd think this would be the kind of person Victorians want on council. Just curious if there was something I wasn't getting...

[martini]

The Good, the bad and the ugly...

Mayor: Brown

Council:
Alto
Coleman
Hall
Kimpton
Luton
Madoff
Thorton-Joe
Young

[Baro]

I have absolutely no clue. Valentine could end up mayor and a robotic bear taking a seat on council some how, Victoria voters seem mostly insane.

[Barrett r Blackwood]

I am LOL at last two posts.
Got to keep yer sense a humor.