2695 replies to this topic

[MarkoJ]

Tuesday, February 11, 2014 9:00am

MTD February
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 101 394
New Listings: 372 1,039
Active Listings: 3,556 4,072

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[MarkoJ]

Monday, February 17, 2014 8:00am

MTD February
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 200 394
New Listings: 588 1,039
Active Listings: 3,599 4,072

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[Nparker]

So we seem to be right on track to match or slightly exceed February 2013.

[MarkoJ]

Monday, February 24, 2014 8:00am

MTD February
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 314 394
New Listings: 836 1,039
Active Listings: 3,679 4,072

Please Note
Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[Mike K.]

114 sales in a week is pretty good.

[MarkoJ]

114 sales in a week is pretty good.

 

I would call it "okay,"  We'll beat out last year by a bit but last year was extremely slow in terms of sales.

[Mike K.]

I would have thought that in this economy during the middle of the winter we're in pretty good shape. But I guess not.

[MarkoJ]

I don't think the market is slow enough to cause significant pressure on prices but it is slow.

[Mike K.]

Gotcha. What's a "good" February according to the industry?

[pherthyl]

Gotcha. What's a "good" February according to the industry?

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Edited by pherthyl, 24 February 2014 - 05:35 PM.

[Mike K.]

Thanks.

Can you pull up February stats pre-2006 together with February inventory stats from 2000-2014? If the inventory stats are a tall order don't worry about them

 

What happened in 06-08 I think we can mostly agree was largely attributed to flippers and investors than the more pragmatic market we're in today. What do you think?

[MarkoJ]

 

Very subjective, but personally I would call above 550 good?

[pherthyl]

Thanks.
Can you pull up February stats pre-2006 together with February inventory stats from 2000-2014? If the inventory stats are a tall order don't worry about them

Basically the combination of sales and inventory results in the "Months of Inventory".
MOI under about 4 is a sellers market, prices are rising.
MOI between 5-7ish is a balanced market, with prices rising with inflation.
MOI above 8 or so is a buyers market, with prices falling.

So we can see the market in Victoria over the last 14 years
2000 was the end of the long slump in the Victoria market. MOI around 8.5 and prices declining.
2001 the boom starts, with MOI around 3 and steeply increasing prices.
2007 the market starts to cool off with MOI increasing.
2008/9 financial crisis, momentary panic and sales fall off a cliff, along with prices.
2009/10 interest rates cut down, buying resumes.
After 2010 MOI around 9, market declining.
2012, CMHC changes regulations, bans 30 year mortgages and limits refinances. MOI rises to very high levels, but balances out again in 2013.
 

What happened in 06-08 I think we can mostly agree was largely attributed to flippers and investors than the more pragmatic market we're in today. What do you think?

Seems victoria bounces from boom to decline. I don't know of any periods with moderate increases.

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Edited by pherthyl, 24 February 2014 - 08:21 PM.

[MarkoJ]

I think we are in for a very long period of moderate flatness!  My guess is prices in 5 years from now we'll be within 5% of what they are today.

[VicHockeyFan]

I think we are in for a very long period of moderate flatness!  My guess is prices in 5 years from now we'll be within 5% of what they are today.

 

What do you make of RBC saying today that interest rates will rise this year?  I don't see it.  This warning has been coming for 5 years now.

[Mike K.]

At a time when rates are actually decreasing. Weird.

[MarkoJ]

What do you make of RBC saying today that interest rates will rise this year?  I don't see it.  This warning has been coming for 5 years now.

 

I'll believe it when I see it.  Interest rates will eventually rise but this year? I don't see it either.  

[MarkoJ]

Monday March 3, 2014 7:15am:

Feb Feb
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 412 394
New Listings: 1,064 1,039
Active Listings: 3,770 4,072

Please Note
Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[James Bay walker]

Monday March 3, 2014 7:15am:

Feb Feb
2014 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 412 394
New Listings: 1,064 1,039
Active Listings: 3,770 4,072

Please Note
Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

So, I'm wondering how should we interpret these bare "stats"?  Is there any sense of the VREB's membership 'share of the market' (volume of MLS, vs member Exclusives, vs FSBOs)?   Is there even the ready capability to determine that these days?  As without knowing how that share shifts, these minor changes from year to year up, down or sideways in MLS stats along with longer term 'trends' could in no small part be swamped by outside factors of that character imo.

 

I'm confident the VREB's market share of the business is declining, but it would be useful to know by how much and whether the trend is accelerating.   Perhaps in part due to free (minute to minute in some instances, not just the daily morning Matrix emails) 'stats' for categories and areas of specific property listings, sales, and expireds which greatly increase a homeowner's capability to do their own CMA, (Comparative Market Analysis); along with four or five now well established and wildly popular social / promotional sites for freely promoting properties for sale.

 

jbw

 

ps.  There'll always be a place for a real estate sales agent, I'm confident.  The question is:  how many?

[MarkoJ]

So, I'm wondering how should we interpret these bare "stats"?  Is there any sense of the VREB's membership 'share of the market' (volume of MLS, vs member Exclusives, vs FSBOs)?   Is there even the ready capability to determine that these days?  As without knowing how that share shifts, these minor changes from year to year up, down or sideways in MLS stats along with longer term 'trends' could in no small part be swamped by outside factors of that character imo.

 

I'm confident the VREB's market share of the business is declining, but it would be useful to know by how much and whether the trend is accelerating.   Perhaps in part due to free (minute to minute in some instances, not just the daily morning Matrix emails) 'stats' for categories and areas of specific property listings, sales, and expireds which greatly increase a homeowner's capability to do their own CMA, (Comparative Market Analysis); along with four or five now well established and wildly popular social / promotional sites for freely promoting properties for sale.

 

jbw

 

ps.  There'll always be a place for a real estate sales agent, I'm confident.  The question is:  how many?

 

I disagree with you that VREB's market share is declining as FSBOs now have the option of going with a mere posting which would be recorded in the VREB statistics.

 

I think there is a place for REALTORS® but I don't know if some of the current commission models are sustainable in the long run.