2695 replies to this topic

[tjv]

Good question, but when I went shopping last year I found most banks offered identical rates, but the difference were in the terms like how much you could make in extra payments per year

 

I am not sure I agree with a stress test exemption if you are renewing with the same bank (is this the only exemption after Jan 1?).  It really gives carte blanche to the banks to say here is your renewal rate, take it or face a stress test at the other banks.  I don't think we will know the rate difference until next year

[Mike K.]

That's a very good point. Take the rate, or go elsewhere...

[Citified.ca]

Mortgage stress test: what you need to know if you’re in the market for a home
https://victoria.cit...ket-for-a-home/

[tjv]

Great article, that really clears it up for me.  Thanks

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

 

Mon Dec 11, 2017:

 

Dec Dec

2017 2016

Net Unconditional Sales: 168 471

New Listings: 198 392

Active Listings: 1,684 1,493

 

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

 

Mon Dec 18, 2017:

 

Dec Dec

2017 2016

Net Unconditional Sales: 274 471

New Listings: 328 392

Active Listings: 1,656 1,493

 

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Tue Jan 2, 2018:

 

Dec Dec

2017 2016

Net Unconditional Sales: 462 471

New Listings: 441 392

Active Listings: 1,384 1,493

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[lanforod]

Pretty much a mirror, which is a little surprising. Where's the uptick that was expected from the stress test rule changes?

[Mike K.]

I suspect the further erosion of inventory pushed some buyers into waiting mode. Lots of buyers were able to qualify at a specific rate and lock that in as far as into late February or early March.

[tjv]

^are you saying that if people qualified at a specific rate, but don't close on their purchase until February or March that they don't have to go thru a stress test with more than 20% down?

 

I see that prices are only up 9.3% in 2017, I was expecting a lot more

[Mike K.]

Yes, that’s right.

Average and median prices are up 14%.

[LeoVictoria]

Pretty much a mirror, which is a little surprising. Where's the uptick that was expected from the stress test rule changes?

 

It happened primarily in November.  Sales went from down almost 10% compared to last year to up nearly 10%.    

 

December sales were down just a bit from 2016, so the bump was short lived.

https://househuntvic...umbers-wrap-up/

Edited by LeoVictoria, 02 January 2018 - 01:30 PM.

[tjv]

Yes, that’s right.

Average and median prices are up 14%.

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in December 2016 was $753,900. The benchmark value for the same home in December 2017 has increased by 9.3 per cent to $823,800, and is slightly lower than November's value of $824,600.

 

https://www.vreb.org...rent-statistics

 

Not sure why they only mention the core, but not the entire region.  Where are you getting 14%?

[lanforod]

Maybe he's looking at all sales, not just SFH...

[Mike K.]

I am using numbers provided by Marko which include the entire region and all residential real-estate transactions save for pre-sales and sales not listed on the MLS.

[MarkoJ]

VREB is using the HPI index and Mike is using absolute value average and median. I actually like the average and median as it gives you concrete numbers versus an algorithm generated number.

[LeoVictoria]

VREB is using the HPI index and Mike is using absolute value average and median. I actually like the average and median as it gives you concrete numbers versus an algorithm generated number.

 

Yeah they both have their pros and cons.   Averages and medians are more "real" because they are calculated from the actual sales that month.   Simple to reproduce from a list of sales.   Downside is these numbers can be quite volatile so comparing two months can lead to quite a misleading answer (it might say prices are decreasing when the trend is actually increasing).   The solution to making these more usable is via a rolling average.

MLS HPI is an incredibly complex algorithm to determine the price of a house with certain typical characteristics, assuming that house had sold that month.    While the estimate seems pretty good, given that exact hypothetical house never sells in any given month, it is fundamentally still just an estimate based on current market conditions.     

[tjv]

I am using numbers provided by Marko which include the entire region and all residential real-estate transactions save for pre-sales and sales not listed on the MLS.

ok thanks, I believe 14% over 9.3%, but even 14% seems a little low

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

 

Mon Jan 8, 2018:

 

Jan Jan

2018 2017

Net Unconditional Sales: 41 478

New Listings: 124 753

Active Listings: 1,398 1,516

 

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[lanforod]

Whoa, slowing down market now it sure looks like. Maybe only 300 sales this month and active listings staying dead low? There's little incentive to get into the market if no one is buying; so it's just folks who really need to I guess that are doing it.