2695 replies to this topic

[LeoVictoria]

I agree with Marko here. I don't think the stress test has pushed that many people completely out of doing a purchase. What it likely has done more is pushed some people to purchase something a bit cheaper.
Isn't a large chunk of buyers folks paying full out cash and not financing, or only financing a small percentage of the property? This is where a lot of folks go to retire, after all.

About 25% all cash deals

[lanforod]

Right, so those 25% aren't affected at all. 

Folks who are affected will still buy a place, just maybe a place that is 50 or 100k cheaper than their original plans. People who were looking for a starter condo or a starter house (and won't tick that down to a townhouse or condo) - those are the ones that may have been pushed completely out, but I don't think that is a large percentage overall.

[Mike K.]

If you’re determined to buy you’ll buy, so long as you’re not at the bottom tier. So you’re right, buyers at the bottom tier could just walk away in the hopes they can save up the necessary down payment over the next six months or so.

[LeoVictoria]

Yes no one will be permanently sidelined here. There was definitely some reduction in buyers but how much of the currrent 20% decline in sales would have happened anyway is impossible to tell. Also there are a couple pre-approvals still potentially active from before the stress test but those are running out now so may be an additional dip coming.

[MarkoJ]

Right, so those 25% aren't affected at all. 

Folks who are affected will still buy a place, just maybe a place that is 50 or 100k cheaper than their original plans. People who were looking for a starter condo or a starter house (and won't tick that down to a townhouse or condo) - those are the ones that may have been pushed completely out, but I don't think that is a large percentage overall.

 

Also 25% that need mortgage insurance aren't affected by this latest round either.

[tjv]

^I was under the impression those that prequalified for mortgages pre Jan 1 or pre stress test with more than 25% down had only about 2 months or so to purchase.  I don't think they can string out their prequalification for much longer but hey I am no expert in bank mortgages either

[Mike K.]

It was at any per cent down, not just 25%. But if you’re a buyer worried about the stress test it makes sense you’d want to have at least 20% down to avoid CMHC fees.

The terms for pre qualifications were two and three months from what I saw late last year. So the last of them will be drying up this month.

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Mon Mar 26, 2018:

 

Mar Mar

2018 2017

Net Unconditional Sales: 545 929

New Listings: 983 1,217

Active Listings: 1,734 1,556

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[MarkoJ]

Interesting market continues.......sales down but lowest new listing count since 2005. Seems as if people are hoarding real estate.

 

Victoria Real Estate Board

Tue Apr 3, 2018:

 

Mar Mar

2018 2017

Net Unconditional Sales: 688 929

New Listings: 1,188 1,217

Active Listings: 1,766 1,556

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[tjv]

^I think people are scared to sell because they are worried once they have an accepted offer on the table that they won't be able to find a place and will essentially be homeless millionaires lol.  My second theory is people are putting their property on the market with high asking prices with the attitude if it sells great, if not who cares

[Torrontes]

Perhaps the new Wealth Tax, aka the Speculation Tax, is having an impact, causing market confusion. Both buyers and sellers are waiting to see the final details.

[Citified.ca]

It's too early to tell what impact the speculation tax may be having, but what is affecting the market is:

- ultra-low inventory levels

- high demand, forcing median prices to new highs

- the stress test forcing some buyers to drop out of the market while others look to condos

- would-be sellers who've moved into a new home opting to rent their previous home instead of selling

 

Ultra tight re-sale inventory plagues Victoria's real-estate market as median prices soar

https://victoria.cit...an-prices-soar/

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Mon Apr 9, 2018:

 

Apr Apr

2018 2017

Net Unconditional Sales: 158 885

New Listings: 331 1,270

Active Listings: 1,842 1,690

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Mon Apr 16, 2018:

 

Apr Apr

2018 2017

Net Unconditional Sales: 340 885

New Listings: 643 1,270

Active Listings: 1,921 1,690

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[Mike K.]

I'm impressed inventory is hovering at just below 2,000-units.

[Torrontes]

What happened to the "ultra-low inventory levels"? 

 

Sales seem to be slower than last year, with new listings similar to last year, which should moderate price increases.

 

Of course, a stretch of nice sunny weather could change everything, but unfortunately that seems unlikely.

[Mike K.]

Well, to be fair, inventory should be at around 4,000 to 4,500-units at this time of year.

[FirstTimeHomeCrier]

How much of that inventory is priced over a million?

[Mike K.]

Approximately 500 of those listings are priced at $1 million or more.

[tjv]

How many of those listings are condos and townhomes vs houses

 

You can't buy much for under $1 million in a single family house today