2697 replies to this topic

[lanforod]

I think less a cooling and just a plateau for a while. Typical Victoria real estate price pattern. Up, flat, up, flat, up, flat...

 

Sales for March look to likely equal sales for March last year.

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Mon Apr 1, 2019:

 

Mar Mar

2019 2018

Net Unconditional Sales: 640 688

New Listings: 1,284 1,188

Active Listings: 2,435 1,766

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

This information comes from the latest 'Monthly Comparative Activity By Property Type' Report 

[Mike K.]

7% dip, 38% more inventory.

[VIResident]

7% dip, 38% more inventory.

wow

[Mike K.]

We’re finally moving towards a balanced market. It’s been a seller’s market for quite a while.

[VIResident]

We’re finally moving towards a balanced market. It’s been a seller’s market for quite a while.

hmmmmm...BUT March 2019 numbers ARE a 51% increase from Feb./19 condo pricing up every so slightly and the number of residences for sale is still well below the 10 year avg of approx. 3,400

[Mike K.]

Yes, and that’s most likely the fall-out from an unseasonably cold and snowy February.

[VIResident]

Right so a somewhat better buyers market, not by much and not for long you figure? 

[Mike K.]

I suspect the Conservatives will kill or drastically alter the stress test as one of their first policy revisions.

[LeoVictoria]

I suspect the Conservatives will kill or drastically alter the stress test as one of their first policy revisions.

OSFI is not a political body. Doubt they will be pressured to reverse a sensible policy measure

[tjv]

SFH prices down 2.8% or ~25k year over year although condo prices are up 1% or ~5k year over year

[Mattjvd]

OSFI is not a political body. Doubt they will be pressured to reverse a sensible policy measure

While that's true, with interest rates no longer likely to rise much, I think we'll see a revision of the rule. Qualify at 1% highe4 than the offered rate, for example (as opposed to the current 2%)

[Mike K.]

A sensible policy doesn’t need another policy to untangle the first policy’s mess.

[LeoVictoria]

A sensible policy doesn’t need another policy to untangle the first policy’s mess.

And neither does the stress test since there is no new policy to untangle it.

[LeoVictoria]

While that's true, with interest rates no longer likely to rise much, I think we'll see a revision of the rule. Qualify at 1% highe4 than the offered rate, for example (as opposed to the current 2%)

I assume there was some actuarial reason they chose 2% but I don’t know the reasoning behind it. It might be less about anticipating a 2% interest rate increase and more about establishing a buffer for any kind of adverse event like income drop.

[Mike K.]

And neither does the stress test since there is no new policy to untangle it.

The Liberal’s first time buyer program.

It’s so disingenuous for CMHC to have propped up the stress test when it came under fire recently for stalling the market, only to offer tens of thousands of dollars to Canadians struggling to get into the market ... because of the stress test.

[LeoVictoria]

The Liberal’s first time buyer program.

It’s so disingenuous for CMHC to have propped up the stress test when it came under fire recently for stalling the market, only to offer tens of thousands of dollars to Canadians struggling to get into the market ... because of the stress test.

 

First time buyer program will by no means counteract the stress test.   It's a very limited program that might help a couple first timers buy a condo.  I bet we won't even notice it in the sales numbers for Victoria.    CMHC wants to cool down overheated markets like Vancouver and Victoria.  Their first time buyers program is designed to really only apply to lower priced markets that took a hit from the national stress test without really needing it.

[Mike K.]

First time buyer program will by no means counteract the stress test.   It's a very limited program that might help a couple first timers buy a condo.  I bet we won't even notice it in the sales numbers for Victoria.    CMHC wants to cool down overheated markets like Vancouver and Victoria.  Their first time buyers program is designed to really only apply to lower priced markets that took a hit from the national stress test without really needing it.

 

But that's the thing, buyers don't need CMHC's help in lower priced markets.

[LeoVictoria]

But that's the thing, buyers don't need CMHC's help in lower priced markets.

 

I suspect if you asked them they would disagree.   But I bet the program won't be a big market mover anywhere.  

[Mike K.]

I agree that the program is dead on arrival.