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Alberta provincial politics


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#1 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:03 AM

I'm sure lots of BC residents are watching this fairly closely.

I think Wildrose is looking pretty good.



http://news.national...pen-in-alberta/

Danielle Smith’s Wildrose on track for majority as polls open in Alberta

Robert Hiltz, Jen Gerson Apr 23, 2012 – 12:05 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 23, 2012 12:45 PM ET


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#2 Holden West

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:05 AM

I had never heard of this Wild Rose party. What the hell's happening when Alberta considers their Conservatives too lefty-pinko?
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#3 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:45 AM

I had never heard of this Wild Rose party. What the hell's happening when Alberta considers their Conservatives too lefty-pinko?


This alone is good for 5-10 points in the polls for Wildrose:

Private members sitting on the committee had been receiving allowances of $1,000 a month for being available for duty, even though the committee has not met since Nov. 17, 2008. And members had adjourned knowing they wouldn’t be back soon: chairman Ray Prins has specifically told them the next meeting “could be 20 years from now.”

MLAs from all parties took “no-meet committee” cash, but when Wildrose and Liberal members announced plans to return their allowances, PC Premier Alison Redford called it a “stunt” and accused them of “grandstanding.” The immediate feedback in Prins’s riding of Lacombe-Ponoka was so ferocious that he announced his retirement from politics on March 21, mere days after giving expansive, playful interviews about his plans to run again. When the election became official on April 5 and other PC candidates started door-knocking, they quickly found that the anger wasn’t local.

Within a few days Redford had to admit she should have “acted faster and gone further.” By that time, she could offer no more than a promise of action. MLAs who do not return all the post-2008 cash, she says, will “not be welcome” in her caucus. But it’s not the best time for her to ask the Alberta public for a leap of faith, considering how she fudged promises made during her leadership campaign—her “fixed election date” law, for example, ended up providing only for an “election window” covering most of the spring.


And this is good for another 5-10

Meanwhile, she didn’t consult her caucus on the payback, or give them much time to absorb it. Virtually all PC MLAs had supported other leadership candidates, and as the Redford campaign stumbles, nasty anonymous quotes are beginning to blossom in the newspapers. The Alberta Conservative machine has a proven ability to rally from behind, but its people have to want to win with the leader they’ve got. Shockingly low PC morale makes the miracle look less likely every day.


http://www2.macleans...history-lesson/
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#4 Bernard

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 09:51 AM

I had never heard of this Wild Rose party. What the hell's happening when Alberta considers their Conservatives too lefty-pinko?


Yes, the PCs are too left for many Albertans

Wildrose has been on the scene for more than a decade and has been a serious threat for a couple of years.

The party is in theory fiscally conservative, but this being Alberta, that means something different than most other places. Alberta spends almost as much money in total as BC does but with fewer people.

The leader is pretty libertarian but the party membership seems to be very socially conservative.

#5 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 07:38 PM

Whoa, pollsters very wrong.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#6 Holden West

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 08:00 PM

^Still, zero to 20 seats is quite something. Only, the WRP benefited from a world-wide bad economy. They could disappear again when the economy improves and tolerant newcomers continue to move to Alberta.
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#7 Layne French

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:21 AM

The WildRose did have some seats in the leg before the election, few of these seats were gained when MLA's cross the floor as the WRP was gaining momentum a few years ago.

The feeling of the pollsters being wrong was held highly, however many of the polls were produced by polling firms outside alberta. these polls were commissioned by Sun Media group, which took their findings and hyped them up. Surprise Danielle Smith is married to David Moretta who is a executive in Sun Media group.

Yes Holden, Alberta is becoming more and more "liberal". Premier Redford has even mentioned this, but this is a consequence of a stronger Edmonton-Calgary(Urban-Rural). Smith's brand of conservative values are only represented in the rural southern ridings of the province.

I curious to see if Alberta punishes the Harper government for this, since members of the Harper government were actively campaigning with the WRP. Sadly I believe most will forget come next federal election.

#8 Bernard

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:40 PM

There are serious major systemic problems with polling in Canada. The single biggest problem is that they do not know if the people they are polling are the ones that will be voting.

Most pollsters normally get a response rate of 80%-90% of the public opinions on who they will vote for but only around 50% will actually vote.

The pollsters also weight their polls according to demographics and not according to who votes and who does not.

Both these things add such a large systemic margin or error to functionally make most polling little better than an educated guess. My estimate is that the systemic margin of error for most polls is in the range of +-15 percentage points

There needs to be some very serious academic study done on polling methodology by statisticians

#9 Bingo

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 08:29 PM

Alberta Election 2015: The latest results

 

53 NDP

20 WRP

11 PC

1 LIB

1 AP

 

Tie vote in Calgary-Glenmore: PC Linda Johnson and NDP Kazim Anam both at 7,015.

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/in...2015/dashboard/


Edited by Bingo, 05 May 2015 - 09:34 PM.

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#10 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 08:33 PM

I can not belive this.
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#11 Mike K.

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 09:09 PM

Watch the CAD take a tumble tomorrow.


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#12 AllseeingEye

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 09:19 PM

I can not belive this.

Quite the sea change for sure; the majority of my Alberta friends who I will candidly admit are of the Calgary business-stripe variety, are certainly in shock and currently looking for the nearest cliff to jump off of. I know from my many trips there especially over the past 5 years for business, the vast majority of Albertans - again read right of center Calgarians - make no bones and pull no punches in terms of what they think of the average BC citizen - we're a bunch of nature loving hippies, tree huggers, dope and commie supporters, lol....I've heard it all.

 

That said after nearly 50 years of the same old same old, but in recent years with small-c conservative leaders who lacked the appeal or influence of a Peter Lougheed or a Ralph Klein, and with a generally young(er) demographic perhaps more inclined than previous generations of Albertans to actually truly consider the environmental impacts of "Big Oil", this result in some ways isn't shocking. Surprising yes, but shocking no.

 

What will be fascinating will be to see what the NDP does with this opportunity: will they be a one trick pony or does this signal the beginning of a fundamental shift in thinking among the Alberta electorate?


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#13 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 09:30 PM

Quite the sea change for sure; the majority of my Alberta friends who I will candidly admit are of the Calgary business-stripe variety, are certainly in shock and currently looking for the nearest cliff to jump off of. I know from my many trips there especially over the past 5 years for business, the vast majority of Albertans - again read right of center Calgarians - make no bones and pull no punches in terms of what they think of the average BC citizen - we're a bunch of nature loving hippies, tree huggers, dope and commie supporters, lol....I've heard it all.

 

That said after nearly 50 years of the same old same old, but in recent years with small-c conservative leaders who lacked the appeal or influence of a Peter Lougheed or a Ralph Klein, and with a generally young(er) demographic perhaps more inclined than previous generations of Albertans to actually truly consider the environmental impacts of "Big Oil", this result in some ways isn't shocking. Surprising yes, but shocking no.

 

What will be fascinating will be to see what the NDP does with this opportunity: will they be a one trick pony or does this signal the beginning of a fundamental shift in thinking among the Alberta electorate?

 

Guys on this forum that I trust say this is temporary.  I'm just at a loss to understand why of all parties the NDP is where folks would go.

 

Seems crazy.  But in any event only so much can be done.


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#14 AllseeingEye

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 09:52 PM

Guys on this forum that I trust say this is temporary.  I'm just at a loss to understand why of all parties the NDP is where folks would go.

 

Seems crazy.  But in any event only so much can be done.

One theory making the rounds is that this is a not so thinly veiled message to Stephen Harper to smarten up. Alberta after all is Ground Zero and home turf for the PM. Although I am a social liberal I tend to be fairly far right of center on fiscal, defence and foreign policy matters generally: even at that I will say that Harper is an a$$-hat in (too) many areas and needs to be reminded IMO that he is not a ruler in a Divine Right of Kings sense but the leader in a parliamentary democracy, which means he should be looking to run the ship of state in a consensual rather than the dictatorial fashion which his record suggests he appears far too inclined to do......


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#15 Layne French

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 10:25 PM

Guys on this forum that I trust say this is temporary.  I'm just at a loss to understand why of all parties the NDP is where folks would go.

 

Seems crazy.  But in any event only so much can be done.

 

Well i dunno about this one, The PC's were punished for sure however lots of albertans are rather left leaning especially in places like Edmonton and the inner ring of Calgary. My riding went solidly NDP(Calgary-Varsity) but it has been both PC and Liberal in the past. 



#16 Layne French

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 10:28 PM

Well i dunno about this one, The PC's were punished for sure however lots of albertans are rather left leaning*especially in places like Edmonton and the inner ring of Calgary. My riding went solidly NDP(Calgary-Varsity) but it has been both PC and Liberal in the past. 

* to clarify they are more left than outsiders think



#17 Danma

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 10:51 PM

I agree. I lived in Edmonton for 23 years and Calgary for 12 years until moving out here three years ago, and I can say that there was always a strong left-leaning electorate in the cities. And Alberta is more than anything an urban province these days. There IS a reason why people chose the NDP over the Wildrose as the non-PC alternative and that is reflected by the highly urban, highly diverse population of the province that made Nenshi mayor of Calgary not that long ago.

 

Is it temporary? I don't necessarily think it has to be. If Notley takes it nice and easy and demonstrates a capacity for thinking straight, being pro-business and sticking to the straight and narrow then the NDP have a good chance to be more than a simple protest vote. She's no dummy, and the Alberta NDP could develop their own brand of the NDP to fruition there.



#18 rjag

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 06:27 AM

It will be interesting to watch and see if they can pull off a balance between managing a resource economy and espousing their social justice- environmental policies.... The party will have to grow up very quickly and be more than Notley. Right now they are a mile wide and an inch deep

Edited by rjag, 06 May 2015 - 06:28 AM.

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#19 AllseeingEye

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 07:05 AM

It will be interesting to watch and see if they can pull off a balance between managing a resource economy and espousing their social justice- environmental policies.... The party will have to grow up very quickly and be more than Notley. Right now they are a mile wide and an inch deep

This +1.

 

Per Danma if they can stick to "thinking straight, being pro-business and sticking to the straight and narrow" and not resort as certain of their BC contemporaries have over the years to some 'hard core, serious left leaning, social engineering loving and all things America hating' ideology - which even most people in BC don't give a rat's poop about these days, then they might actually do well.

 

They need to remember that while *urban* Alberta may be more left leaning than most realize the fact remains they also now must count upon and deal with, among the governed, High River and Cochrane cowboys, who in general have and live by a very different philosophical and value code which in general does not include hugging trees or forcing everyone out of their cars in favor of bicycles.Strike that balance and Alberta might start to look very different in a few short years.



#20 lanforod

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 07:08 AM

I agree. I lived in Edmonton for 23 years and Calgary for 12 years until moving out here three years ago, and I can say that there was always a strong left-leaning electorate in the cities. And Alberta is more than anything an urban province these days. There IS a reason why people chose the NDP over the Wildrose as the non-PC alternative and that is reflected by the highly urban, highly diverse population of the province that made Nenshi mayor of Calgary not that long ago.

 

Is it temporary? I don't necessarily think it has to be. If Notley takes it nice and easy and demonstrates a capacity for thinking straight, being pro-business and sticking to the straight and narrow then the NDP have a good chance to be more than a simple protest vote. She's no dummy, and the Alberta NDP could develop their own brand of the NDP to fruition there.

 

Can she be pro-business and pro-union at the same time?

 

I predict that Alberta will start losing some of its higher income taxpayers to other provinces.



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