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Alberta provincial politics


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#181 RFS

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 04:57 PM

The freedom party has said they wont run against the PCs in competitive ridings

#182 Bernard

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 05:04 PM

The freedom party has said they wont run against the PCs in competitive ridings

How they will decide which ones that is?   Only run against sitting UCP MLAs?   Only run where the NDP won by a landslide?



#183 lanforod

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:11 PM

I'll bet you a beer the UCP wins.

#184 Bernard

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 11:36 AM

I'll bet you a beer the UCP wins.

Give 2-1 odds and I will take that bet.   



#185 LJ

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 07:54 AM

We are now about 7 months to the Alberta election and while everyone thinks it is a foregone conclusion I am not so certain.

 

There are once again five parties heading into the election that have seats in the legislature.   Two right wing, two centre and only one party on the left.   There have been no polls released since mid-July.   Since then Freedom Conservative party has come into existence and seems to be looking to take over the political space held by Wildrose.

 

A major reason Notley won in 2015 is that voter turn out rose a lot, 15% more people voted in 2015 than 2012 and 36% more people voted in 2012 than 2008.   Alberta has a long history of low voter turnout because everyone assumed the PCs would win again.   That pattern changed in 2012 with a serious boost for the PCs to defeat Wildrose and in 2015 to elect the NDP.    The extra voters seem to centre to centre left, this turn out shows up in the 2015 federal election when the Liberals won four seats, including two in Calgary.  

 

People assume Alberta is conservative by nature but I would disagree.   Alberta has the highest rate atheism in Canada.  The PC governments spent more of social programs than any left of centre government in Canada.

 

So, I would not count out the NDP winning re-election

Regarding atheism, I am a dyed in the wool conservative and an atheist, religion has no part in Canadian elections despite some folks trying to make it so.


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#186 Sparky

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:22 PM

Give 2-1 odds and I will take that bet.


I thought you didn't gamble Bernard?

#187 Bernard

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:21 PM

I thought you didn't gamble Bernard?

a beer does not count


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#188 Bernard

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:24 PM

Regarding atheism, I am a dyed in the wool conservative and an atheist, religion has no part in Canadian elections despite some folks trying to make it so.

Evangelical Christians have gone from being all over the political spectrum to being almost exclusively on the right in Canadian politics are have reshaped the nature of the right wing in this country.   It is hard to imagine a Baptist minister running for the NDP any longer



#189 lanforod

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 07:24 PM

I disagree with that actually, I think its more that politics in Canada has shifted left. Centre/moderate today would be considered left/liberal 30 years ago. Evangelical Christian (and others, eg. Catholic, did not shift, putting most of them solidly right of centre if they weren't already there. I can only thing of one larger denomination that is now still left of centre: United Churches.



#190 lanforod

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 07:24 PM

Give 2-1 odds and I will take that bet.   

Done!  I'd probably buy you two anyways if you won :P.


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#191 Bernard

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 01:16 PM

I disagree with that actually, I think its more that politics in Canada has shifted left. Centre/moderate today would be considered left/liberal 30 years ago. Evangelical Christian (and others, eg. Catholic, did not shift, putting most of them solidly right of centre if they weren't already there. I can only thing of one larger denomination that is now still left of centre: United Churches.

Many of the early CCF MLAs, MPs and leaders were evangelical ministers - there has been a serious change in the role of evangelicals in politics in Canada and the US.   They were one of the reasons the CCF/NDP were neutral on abortion.   The CCF was a lot more socially conservative than most people would expect was the case.

 

Before 1980 the right in the US had no lock on the evangelical vote, which is funny because Reagan, not a very religious man at all, got the evangelical vote when Jimmy Carter was an active evangelical Christian.  He was an active member of the Southern Baptists - I think he was the last president in the US that really placed religion first and foremost in his life.  He is still active Baptist but no longer a Southern Baptist but part of the New Baptist Convention.


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#192 lanforod

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 08:11 AM

^ you sir, have a wealth of political history info!



#193 Bernard

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 04:50 PM

^ you sir, have a wealth of political history info!

My wife likes to use it as a party trick, she says things like "Bernard, who won the Manitoba election in the late 1950s?"   I think she likes to show people I am very smart, a freak, and barely acceptable to go out in polite company.......


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#194 Nostalgic Victoria

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 09:44 AM

We are now about 7 months to the Alberta election and while everyone thinks it is a foregone conclusion I am not so certain.

 

There are once again five parties heading into the election that have seats in the legislature.   Two right wing, two centre and only one party on the left.   There have been no polls released since mid-July.   Since then Freedom Conservative party has come into existence and seems to be looking to take over the political space held by Wildrose.

 

A major reason Notley won in 2015 is that voter turn out rose a lot, 15% more people voted in 2015 than 2012 and 36% more people voted in 2012 than 2008.   Alberta has a long history of low voter turnout because everyone assumed the PCs would win again.   That pattern changed in 2012 with a serious boost for the PCs to defeat Wildrose and in 2015 to elect the NDP.    The extra voters seem to centre to centre left, this turn out shows up in the 2015 federal election when the Liberals won four seats, including two in Calgary.  

 

People assume Alberta is conservative by nature but I would disagree.   Alberta has the highest rate atheism in Canada.  The PC governments spent more of social programs than any left of centre government in Canada.

 

So, I would not count out the NDP winning re-election

 

With the way things are going for Rachel Not-Worthy at this point, I highly doubt it.  In fact, what happened to the Ontario Liberals back in the June election there is what I predict will happen to Not-Worthy's Not Democratic Party in Alberta in or before next May.



#195 lanforod

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 09:40 PM

Notleywithstanding my beer wager with Bernard, while I think the OCP wins this one, I don't think it will be the kind of licking the Ontario Liberals got (that one was a long time coming, I was surprised it didn't happen 4 years earlier).


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