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#21 AllseeingEye

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Posted 08 September 2016 - 10:16 PM

In NK the cult of personality combined with the full power and tools of state repression is a tough 1-2 to overcome - see the Soviet Union under Stalin, China under Mao, Cambodia under Pol Pot. NK only survives as a viable independent entity due to Chinese support. Take the latter away, especially food imports, and NK virtually vanishes overnight. Trouble is I'm sure China has no particular incentive to cease supporting NK as they certainly view Fat Boy's regime, especially its predilection for unpredictable actions like popping off the occasional nuke, as a bulwark against US influence in the area. A nasty situation with no easy way out...


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#22 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 06:31 AM

^ I'm somewhat surprised China puts up with it and him.  Most of the world would probably not care too much if China walked in and set things straight.

 

Well, it would worry SK and the US.  But would it be much worse than that nut in power?

 

What a lot of people do not know, is that the US keeps 30,000 US troops in the DMZ, as an excuse to nuke NK if they attack.  NK has a million troops and could take out the US force in a day.  But then the US would have justification for using a nuke on the north.


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<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#23 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 06:34 AM

That border is the most militarized border in the world, and 28,000 US troops are there.


http://worldnews.msn...eedoms-frontier

The fact is, if the 1-milion man North Korean army wanted to march into Seoul (just 25 miles south) they would have no problem doing just that.

But that's why the US troops are there. Killing of thousands of Amercians in order to do that would give the US a green light to take out the North, even with nuclear weapons. If only South Korean troops stood guard, the US would not have worldwide support for the protection of the South in the event of an attack from the North.

So that's really the sole purpose of 28,000 Americans there.

Consider that the US only has 20,000 border patrol guards for all of the US. So they spend as much or more protecting South Korea as they do their own borders.

http://en.wikipedia....s_Border_Patrol

 

Oh, I said that 4 years ago.


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<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#24 AllseeingEye

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 08:55 AM

Oh, I said that 4 years ago.

LOL yup and I responded in kind 4 years ago.... :)

 

Bottom line is that while NK has a larger ground force no one really knows how well or motivated to fight they'll be. They have more men and guns - but SK has the very latest US-supplied weaponry.

 

Will the NK soldiers go balls to the wall and fight and die gloriously for the "Workers Paradise" motherland? Or once they're over the border will significant numbers of them decide its not worth getting blown to smithereens by US air power or SK artillery and simply throw down their arms and "defect"? Or has decades of hard core propaganda hardened them to the point they'll just "follow orders" no matter what the consequences for the greater Korean peninsula?

 

Hard to know since they haven't fought a major engagement in nearly 65 years but I think safe to say if they came pouring over the border tomorrow the USN 7th Fleet isn't going to sit idly by doing nothing; the description of their flagship carriers says it all - "100,000 tons of diplomacy". Don't forget too the US has an additional 50,000+ military personnel in Japan, both naval and air force, as well as available forces in Australia and the Philippines.

 

On top of all that would be the $64,000 question - should the US intervene and especially if they inflicted horrific damage on NK invaders what would China do?

 

I would guess there is more or less continuous background dialogue happening between the US and China to ensure things don't get to a point where we see NK hordes pouring over the border. Its in no one's interest least of all China or the US. If Fat Boy OTOH really went off the rails and initiated something purely on his own I wouldn't be surprised to see China and US cooperate to put an end to hostilities tout de suite: if I am China I certainly don't relish the prospect of a full on nuclear exchange on my north-eastern border barely 500 miles from my capital city, so I would be very surprised if we ever get to that point.



#25 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 09 September 2016 - 09:01 AM

^ yes, true.


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#26 LJ

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Posted 10 September 2016 - 08:17 PM

The US is going to offer S Korea a missile defense system in order to protect itself from N Korea. China does not want that to happen. The threat of that should, hopefully, be enough to force China to stop trading with N Korea until they come into line.


Life's a journey......so roll down the window and enjoy the breeze.

#27 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 11 September 2016 - 05:02 AM

Ya, it probably will.  Maybe an even scarier prospect is that top level officials in China are probably plotting right now, the point in time they will be a big enough power to take over the world.  You know like 2030 or 2040.


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#28 AllseeingEye

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Posted 11 September 2016 - 09:00 PM

I think the chances and odds of the latter scenario happening are somewhere between zero and none; no one power will ever have the ability to literally run the show on its own. Hopefully we'll evolve to the point where that isn't even a consideration since in order to survive as a species and overcome some fairly monumental challenges pretty clearly its going to require a concerted conjoined effort by 'everyone' on this little sphere in order for that to happen.

 

Anyway from a practical standpoint they have Russia on one side, still the second largest nuclear power on earth, India to the south west - certainly no friend to China - with almost as many people and also a creditable nuclear-armed state in its own right; and finally US-backed South Korea, Japan and Taiwan all literally sitting at their front door, backed up by yet more American military power/allies/bases in the Philippines, Guam, Australia, New Zealand and Hawaii. Corporately China can and will buy up energy or resource companies in Canada and Africa but militarily on a truly global scale they can't do jack. Become a pre-eminent Asian or even Pacific power (from a naval standpoint), very definitely "yes". Beyond that, not so much.....



#29 spanky123

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Posted 12 September 2016 - 03:12 AM

^ Within 10 years China will have a larger GDP then the US. They are already maneouvering behind the scenes to make SDR the new reserve currency and will likely succeed over time. Their corporations and citizens are buying up assets and resources globally. The Chinese don't need to do anything militarily, all they need to do is wait and they are very good at that.

 

The real risk is the with US and what steps they will take once they realize that they have lost their global economic and political clout.



#30 AllseeingEye

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Posted 12 September 2016 - 10:03 AM

Interesting analysis below; perhaps Beijing has less influence on the DRPK than when Fat Boy's father and grandfather were in power.

 

No doubt he's a dangerous little b*****d. Imagine being named Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army at age 27 (in 2011) and now as supreme "Leader" you have only to issue an order to launch nuclear missiles. When I was 27 I was working on an MA in International Relations @ UBC and bouncing p/t at the student union pub.....

 

And as clearly indicated in the linked outline the path forward for China is a clouded one, fraught with all sort of complications -

 

http://www.cnn.com/2...orea/index.html



#31 AllseeingEye

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 05:37 PM

More posturing off the Korean peninsula:

 

http://www.cnn.com/2...sula/index.html

 

IMO with inherently unstable Androgynous Fat Boy/Man-Child running the NK Worker's Paradise on one side, and the Orange Fog wearing the Commander-in-Chief's hat on the US side, this situation over time represents potentially a far greater danger to regional or even global stability than does anything that might happen in Syria. All it would take is for Fat Boy to go off his meds or the Donald deciding to teach the former a "lesson" to light the match to the powder-keg.

 

I do hope for everyone's sake that US and Chinese diplomats are holding frank, serious, and continuous albeit quiet dialogue in the background.


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#32 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 05:40 PM

I do hope for everyone's sake that US and Chinese diplomats are holding frank, serious, and continuous albeit quiet dialogue in the background.

 

It's a head-scratcher to me why China does not exert more control over NK that they appear to do now, who would mind if they did?   But maybe there is a lot more to the dynamics than I understand.


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#33 AllseeingEye

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 06:05 PM

Having a spastic-child like the NK regime around - from a Chinese standpoint - ensures the US is kept on its toes and held somewhat at bay.

 

Imagine for a moment the NK state didn't exist and that "Korea" becomes unified with a generally pro-West, pro-US orientation with Seoul as its national capital. If you're China you are now quite literally surrounded by potentially hostile states mostly backed up by American military beef (now commanded by the wild card Donald Trump): Korea, Taiwan, Japan all sitting squarely to their immediate south and east, and all of them in turn backed up by yet more US military muscle in the Philippines, Guam and Australia.

 

And lets not forget the Russian Bear on their northern-north west frontier. Even when the two powers were hard line communist states - theoretically aligned ideological brothers after all in the struggle to overcome Western Capitalism - they were in fact rivals for supremacy in the Communist Bloc, and even had a brief shooting war in 1969: 

 

http://nationalinter...d-war-iii-15152

 

And lastly don't forget India which is a very real Chinese rival in Asia: a nuclear armed power with a huge army and modern air force, with its own billion++ people.

 

All very bad from Beijing's standpoint. NK for better or worse is a buffer for China. Question becomes I think at what point does Fat Boy's regime become more of a liability than an asset?


Edited by AllseeingEye, 08 April 2017 - 06:19 PM.

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#34 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 06:13 PM

^ Yes, interesting.


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#35 sdwright.vic

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Posted 08 April 2017 - 06:54 PM

Tic... tock... tick... tock.
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Predictive text and a tiny keyboard are not my friends!

#36 todd

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 07:57 PM

 

Updated April 15, 2017 2:36 PM

North Korea shows off intercontinental ballistic missiles in parade

http://www.newsday.c...rade-1.13471054

 



#37 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:04 PM

screenshot-www.facebook.com-2017-04-15-21-06-05.png


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#38 todd

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:10 PM

It could soon be on Victoria's radar.

Luckily I invested in potassium iodide(pm me).
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#39 LJ

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:13 PM

Well NK launched, or should I say tried to launch, another missile today but it blew up right after liftoff.


Life's a journey......so roll down the window and enjoy the breeze.

#40 todd

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 08:18 PM

They are so brainwashed probably led to believe it was successful launch. So glad that could never happen here.......
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