Short term counts (anything less than a week) are good for looking at mode share during that period, but little can be extrapolated well out from there. This is actually a fairly large industry, where companies purport to take counts, population data and mode share and try and create "models". They simply don't work, especially when you are looking at walking or biking data.
You also can't take a few videos (or a few counts) and compare it to Origin & Destination studies or Census JtW data. You can compare it to other short-term counts, with the giant caveat that there is a huge amount of volatility in them for all modes. The sum of all the decision points about how, when, where and why to travel means that you see large spreads in average counts on what should be similar days.
Okay, I'll take that as "No thanks."
As you know, the Origin & Destination Travel Study and the Census household questionnaire are not empirical data. In so far as the component parts of our local transportation system are concerned, the latter tells us very little, and the former has large gaps in it. Yet the positions on public transportation policy of both local governments and advocacy groups, such as yours, are largely based on this incomplete, non-empirical information. (Also, I think you should make it clear in this forum that you work for Malatest & Associates and did analysis for the CRD's ODT study even though you were on the board of directors of the GVCC.)
The eco-counter on the Galloping Goose seems more designed to show whether or not cycling on that route is increasing. Over the four years it has been operating, it does show a slight increase. But that's all it shows. Cycling advocates may find that satisfying, but it doesn't help much in the planning required for a reformed public transportation system that is intended to respond to the need for auto emission reductions. At the rate cycling is increasing (from the Eco counter data) and given it's current low level in meetings Victorians transportation needs, it doesn't look like it will play a significant role in emissions reduction. But who knows? We shall see.
Our video mapping of City of Victoria intersections is empirical data for the hours in which the videos are made (about 3:30 to 5:30). Unlike the ODT Survey, the videos will capture commercial automobile traffic, which is a large gap in the CRD's data. The CRD's data is done during one season, so it only captures data during that season. The empirical data captured in our videos will provide a much clearer picture of mode share in the 3:30 to 5:30pm time period, especially the split between pedestrians, cyclists and autos. It's not possible to measure the number of people on buses that pass, but we will make some estimate based on Transit data. We're hoping to make this an ongoing project that spans years. If local governments come up with better methodologies for making public policy decisions on transportation, we won't need to do this. I wish they would hurry up.
David Broadland