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DISCUSSION | 2012 Victoria Federal By-Election | November 26


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#301 G-Man

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 11:51 AM

^ I think that the conservative bogeyman is clearly dead for good in Victoria.

If you have 80% plus of voters choosing centrist (Green) or left of centre (NDP) in the riding. If anything I think this shows those that held on to that thought last night that in the next election they can vote freely for the Greens and there is no chance of the right coming up a vote split.

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#302 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 12:04 PM

^ I think that the conservative bogeyman is clearly dead for good in Victoria.

If you have 80% plus of voters choosing centrist (Green) or left of centre (NDP) in the riding. If anything I think this shows those that held on to that thought last night that in the next election they can vote freely for the Greens and there is no chance of the right coming up a vote split.


Not so fast. I think that if this was a regular election, the Greens would not have done so well. Let's face it, we knew our voting was not going to contribute to a change of government in this byelection. I think that makes a difference. It's why a lot of Conservatives, and even Liberals stayed at home. It's why I voted for the most unlikely party you'll ever see me vote for.
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#303 G-Man

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 04:02 PM

I don't know. In a regular election knowing that the conservatives or liberals still have almost no chance to win Victoria, do you use your vote to simply throw it away on a candidate that has no chance or do you try and limit the opposition to the best of your ability?

Now I am not a conservative supporter but if I were and lived in Vic I would certainly continue to vote Green in the hopes of weakening the opposition by reducing their seat count.

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#304 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 04:18 PM

I don't know. In a regular election knowing that the conservatives or liberals still have almost no chance to win Victoria, do you use your vote to simply throw it away on a candidate that has no chance or do you try and limit the opposition to the best of your ability?

Now I am not a conservative supporter but if I were and lived in Vic I would certainly continue to vote Green in the hopes of weakening the opposition by reducing their seat count.


I think I dread the possibility that the general election is so close that my riding decides it, so I'm going to support my party as best I can, because I would feel so bad if I helped blow it when it came down to my riding.

I voted Green yesterday because I felt that I'd like another left-wing party to get some attention from the Feds, and and further split the left vote.
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#305 http

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 04:29 PM

I don't know. In a regular election knowing that the conservatives or liberals still have almost no chance to win Victoria, do you use your vote to simply throw it away on a candidate that has no chance or do you try and limit the opposition to the best of your ability?


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#306 Bernard

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 07:09 PM

Based on what was happening at the polling stations, a large part of the core NDP vote stayed home and did not vote. The Greens seemed to have pulled in a lot of Liberal and conservative supporters, but also they pulled in a lot of people that did not vote in 2011.

The Liberal vote was a percentage was their lowest ever other than 1984 which was marginally lower.

The Conservative percentage of the vote was a historic low.

Don Galloway managed to get the second highest Green vote ever, only Elizabeth May in 2011 was higher. He did better than she did in 2008 or 2006. The percentage for the Greens in Victoria is among the highest a Green anywhere in the world has ever achieved in any direct election.

In the next federal election things could be very different because odds are 50% more people will vote than in this by-election but I do not think so. The NDP could get a lot more people voting, though an NDP government in Victoria could depress the federal vote badly has happened in the 1993 election when 15 of 17 BC NDP MPs lost. The Liberals will have a new leader but if it is Justin Trudeau odds are by the time of the next election the Liberal fortunes will be in the tank - 2 years of NDP and CPC hammering of a middle aged man who has not history or experience in leadership or having to take stands will likely leave him battered. Finally, I do not see any substantive CPC renaissance on the horizon here.

My suspicion is that 2015 will be a very close and hard fought race between the Greens and the NDP.

#307 Mike K.

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 10:16 PM

My suspicion is that 2015 will be a very close and hard fought race between the Greens and the NDP.

If that's the case we might even see a few NDP's jump ship and join the Green's.

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