306 replies to this topic

[Nparker]

I...already saw a Conservative campaign sign in Cook Street Village...

That's jumping the gun a bit isn't it? I mean Harper has 6 months to call a bi-election...or perhaps in the case of the Conservatives it will be a buy-election. Your tax dollars at work for you!

[spanky123]

When I heard the "breaking news" on CBC yesterday a reporter said Denise's decision was partly related to Jack Layton's death, which affected her greatly.

But for what it's worth plenty of MPs and politicians in this country are well into their sixties and beyond. In an era where people live in to their late 80s someone who's in his or her late 60's is considered fairly young and capable.

She was 67 when she put her name forward for re-election and 68 when she decided to stand for Deputy Speaker.

If she was so distraught by Jack's passing then she would have saved the taxpayers a lot of money by resigning then rather than waiting a year.

According to a 2011 Ipsos read poll, only 9% of Canadians trust Federal politicians, 1% ahead of used car salespeople. Stuff like this doesn't help.

[tedward]

If she was so distraught by Jack's passing then she would have saved the taxpayers a lot of money by resigning then rather than waiting a year.

Now you are just playing dumb to continue attacking her.

She did not say she was resigning because she was upset about Layton's death. She very clearly stated Layton's death was the catalyst for evaluating her own health which led her to decide to resign so that Victoria could have an MP able to do the work required.

If you are going to attack a public servant with such bile at least do it honestly.

[Bernard]

The by-election is likely to be called with the two other confirmed ones, Calgary Centre and Durham. This likely means a call on Sept 17th through to October 22nd with the by-election on Oct 22nd, 29th, Nov 5th, 13th, 19th or 26th.

My take on Victoria is that the NDP has a relatively secure 30-40%. The Conservatives are likely to be able to take about 25%. The Liberals 5-10%. The leaves space for the Greens to take from 25-40% of the vote.

A strong Conservative candidate could rise to 35%, but it has to be a popular name that appeals to Liberal voters - I can not think of who that would be.

I see the NDP at 35% with the choice of candidate influencing it +-5% - most common name I am hearing for them in a positive light is Marianne Alto. Could we see a return of David Turner? How about Carole James, being an MP pays a lot better than MLA and she will be a forgotten back bencher next May. Might Ben Isitt mount a nomination campaign and be the candidate over the dead body of the local NDP?

If the Greens put in the $90k they can spend, use May all the time, and rustle up 300 to 500 volunteers, 40% is achievable. Spending only $25k-$32k the Greens have managed to get 8-12% in the last four elections, if they put in the energy of the other parties they can do a lot better. I have no heard anything about who might run for the Greens.

The Liberals, short of finding a real star, are dead meat here. They will not be able to find the money or volunteers and will be squeezed out by the other parties.

[Bernard]

Ron Cheffins opinion of possible candidates

Carole James
Dean Fortin
Marianne Alto
Pam Maddoff - but I thought she had some health issues and he may not have been aware of that

He ruled out Rob Fleming because he is going to be a cabinet minister next May

[VicHockeyFan]

^ ^ Good call. I think if the greens are already working they might pull something off. David Suzuki would win it for them. j/k.

^ Cheffins also thinks Fortin might not do it. It's a grind, but he has energy. And you get to come home every Friday to Monday, and take several months off, that still might appeal to him even with his young family.

[Nparker]

Ron Cheffins opinion of possible candidates...Pam Maddoff...

But however would she see the Sooke Hills while driving her car around Ottawa?

[spanky123]

Ron Cheffins opinion of possible candidates

Carole James
Dean Fortin
Marianne Alto
Pam Maddoff - but I thought she had some health issues and he may not have been aware of that

He ruled out Rob Fleming because he is going to be a cabinet minister next May

Carole James. Do you think that it is a coincidence that the TC ran a full page feature on her last weekend?

[Holden West]

I can see voters thinking James was out of her league in her attempt to lead a province but as a backbench MP in Ottawa would do fine at picking up where Denise left off. I'll pick Carole for the win.

[Barra]

Given that Pamela Madoff's husband ( Nick Bawlf) has just died, I doubt that she's thinking of mounting a campaign.

I am shocked at some of the mean spirited comments on this thread. Denise has always been admired for her integrity. I don't think she'd be making this announcement frivolously.

[rjag]

I can see voters thinking James was out of her league in her attempt to lead a province but as a backbench MP in Ottawa would do fine at picking up where Denise left off. I'll pick Carole for the win.

Agreed. If I was a betting man I would place my money on Carole.

[Bernard]

Best that I am hearing, Carole James will not be running. There seems to be a movement to convince the Mayor to run.

Just some analysis that might interest you about how well the Greens have done. Victoria has been one of their strongest ridings since 1997, certainly one that is within the realm of them being able to win.

So when will the by-election be? My best estimate is either on November 5th of November 26th. This means the by-elections would be called either on October 1st or October 22nd.

[Hotel Mike]

I wouldn't count the Liberals out quite so quickly. I believe there are many in Victoria who appreciate the party that doesn't react by dogma to every situation. They supported David Anderson for many years. Electing a Liberal would send an interesting message, and it would garner much more attention than if an NDP or Conservative were elected.

I can't imagine any provincial NDP MLA's making the move. They're all salivating waiting to take over the reigns of government in BC. But from the municipal level...could be.

[Bernard]

I wouldn't count the Liberals out quite so quickly. I believe there are many in Victoria who appreciate the party that doesn't react by dogma to every situation. They supported David Anderson for many years. Electing a Liberal would send an interesting message, and it would garner much more attention than if an NDP or Conservative were elected.

I can't imagine any provincial NDP MLA's making the move. They're all salivating waiting to take over the reigns of government in BC. But from the municipal level...could be.

David Anderson was at the right place at the right time. Reform was too right wing and the NDP voters flocked to him in 1993, 97 and 2000 to vote for Anderson to stop the right. In 2004 the conservatives in town were scared to death of the idea of David Turner winning for the NDP and Anderson got a good chunk of right wing vote in that election.

The Liberals are polling badly in BC right now, in the mid teens and barely in front of the Greens.

The Liberals would then have to find a strong candidate and short of Frank Leonard wanting to run as a Liberal I can not think of anyone with enough standing for the party to have any impact on the election.

Historically over the last 40 years the Liberals are clearly the #3 party in this riding. Their danger now is becoming the #4 party.

[G-Man]

I really think Alan Lowe could do it.

[VicHockeyFan]

Bernard, because this is a by-election that won't change the party in power, could it be that a strong candidate can win, even overcoming his party affiliation? Or even is there any history of independents doing well in by-elections?

[Bernard]

Bernard, because this is a by-election that won't change the party in power, could it be that a strong candidate can win, even overcoming his party affiliation? Or even is there any history of independents doing well in by-elections?

By-elections can sometimes have surprising results. In 2007 Thomas Mulcair won Outremont for the NDP when the party had never been a serious factor before.

In 2002 the NDP won the very safe Liberal seat of Windsor West

In 1989 Deb Grey won Beaver river for the Reform party, less than six months earlier she was a distant fourth in the same riding.

[Jacques Cadé]

From Dean Fortin's Facebook page (https://www.facebook...nFortinVictoria), responding to this story in Victoria News: Victoria News - UP FOR GRABS: Candidates to replace Victoria MP Denise Savoie will emerge soon

l want to thank Denise for all her fantastic work on behalf of all citizens in Victoria in Ottawa ....

(As an aside, I am not interested in seeking her position - being mayor of Victoria is the most amazing postion and I love the municipal level! And contrary to the story, I have never expressed to friends or others any aspirations for higher office - Mr Wright never speaks for me nor knows any of my intentions.)

So the mayor isn't running. Who will be the NDP candidate?

[Holden West]

^That makes sense. Being a permanent opposition backbencher must be one of the suckiest jobs in politics. Being mayor may be a small time gig but at least you are actually making decisions, not just following the leader and making boilerplate speeches no-one listens to.

A Chris Causton campaign would have all the dynamics of a damp sponge. I wonder what would happen if they dusted off David Anderson?

[VicHockeyFan]

A Chris Causton campaign would have all the dynamics of a damp sponge. I wonder what would happen if they dusted off David Anderson?

I agree. Surely we can find someone good for each party. What's Benj O'Connor up to? He's a Liberal. I don't even know who Patrick Hunt is, and I voted for him, knowing it was useless.