598 replies to this topic

[jonny]

^ Smoke and mirrors. If you were to take a poll from Vancouver Island you would get one result. If you were to take a poll in the lower mainland you would get another.

There are over 3 million voters in BC. The polls seldom sample over 1,000.

Wait for it. Tuesday will be here soon enough.

Still think the polls that showed the gap was closing were smoke and mirrors?

Everybody talks about how the Liberal win came so far out of left field, but we all saw the same polling information that said the gap was gone (or at least within the margin of error). Some chose to ignore it, and in the NDPs case, they ignored it at their own peril.

[tedward]

I am willing to bet that Carole will be back in the driver's seat before long.

OMG what a total disaster that would be.

Nice woman, great MLA and I was hoping she would be in cabinet today but leader? Sorry that was tried already and it was a failure.

She could serve as interim leader until the party could decide on a new leader.

[Holden West]

Fascinating story by Michael Smyth on why the NDP screwed up what they thought was a sure victory:

The Liberals then did something other pollsters didn’t: they “weighted” the results by age group, according to their likelihood to vote.

For example: even though the NDP was leading among eligible voters aged 18-34, research shows younger voters are less likely to actually cast a ballot than older voters.

In an email to fellow Liberal strategists, an excited Pantazopoulos said his age-adjusted numbers showed Clark with a nearly six-point lead in the closing days of the campaign.

“Looking at our turnout-weighted results on May 11th,” he wrote. “BAM!

Read more: http://www.theprovin...l#ixzz2TkopEs9X

It seems so obvious now. How many of your young friends proudly proclaim their hatred for right wing parties but sheepishly admit to not voting after the election? A lot. How about your senior friends? Few, because older folk will trudge through a blizzard to vote.

It's crazy that in this post-Obama era, with access to amazing data and techniques the NDP blew it. Read here about how Obama's election team devastated the Republicans with superior polling and most importantly, the smarts to process that data into something real to act on.

[UrbanRail]

I bet John Horgan will be the new leader.

By the way you may not like Carole James as leader, but at least unlike Dix, she didnt flip flop without telling her Campaign team on major election issues. Many NDP party members and Carole James heard about Dix change in position on Kinder Morgan through the media apparently.

There is going to be a lot of soul searching within the NDP ranks.

I should also add, unlike Christy Clark, James kept her seat as leader after two elections. I just hope that no one gives up their seat for Clark, because if people wanted her back in her riding, she would have won.

[VicHockeyFan]

I just hope that no one gives up their seat for Clark

There will be no shortage of people willing to give up their seat.

[G-Man]

^ Correct. She won the election for the Liberals.

[Mike K.]

I don't necessarily think the NDP "blew it." I think they realized what was happening but maintained their composure. And I think one of the major channels on election night even mentioned that the Liberals' interpretation of the numbers encouraged them to keep up the fight. At the time I remember thinking "what numbers? Huh?"

It was the press and the pollsters they hired who failed to interpret their own data and fed the public numbers that were misinterpreted.

[VicHockeyFan]

Everyone here is also suggesting that the NDP could "do something about it" if they saw they were falling in the polls. That's not the case.

Dix is the problem. That can't get fixed in the last three weeks before election day.

[Holden West]

Everyone here is also suggesting that the NDP could "do something about it" if they saw they were falling in the polls. That's not the case.

Dix is the problem. That can't get fixed in the last three weeks before election day.

But the strength the Obama team had was an ability to recognize problems and fix them even as the polls were about to close. Data showing tight races would automatically trigger a mass telephoning of voters on election day: "Mrs. Jones, it's Stephanie from the Obama campaign wondering if you've voted yet and if not, can we offer you a ride to the poll?" Meanwhile, Romney's data analysis collapsed on election day and they weren't even getting feedback from exit polls they could act on.

[Mike K.]

Hey NDP party, please take down the large Gary Holman sign still standing on Lands End Road in North Saanich. Sheesh.

[Robb]

Adrian Dix to stay on as B.C. NDP leader despite election loss

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...an-dix-ndp.html

[tedward]

As leader of the B.C. NDP, I take full responsibility for this defeat.
-Adrian Dix

And how is NOT resigning taking, "full responsibility"?

He had plenty of time as leader to prepare and a commanding lead in the polls going into the race. This is absurd.

[E-P-G]

And how is NOT resigning taking, "full responsibility"?

He had plenty of time as leader to prepare and a commanding lead in the polls going into the race. This is absurd.

I got the impression it would depend on the findings of the navel gaz-, I mean, internal review of "WTF happened", and if looks like he was/is indeed the biggest liability, he will step down. And I'm sure get some encouragement on that front. No need to rush, they've once again got 4 years to the speaker's left to deal with it. Perhaps he (or the choices he made in this campaign) were the biggest problem, but after I recovered from the surprise, realized many factors could be looked at... the repetitious (and I thought too simplistic and without the trust behind it to be effective, but apparently I was wrong) Liberal message aside from attacking Dix, the collapse of the Conservatives as an alternative, and a few more besides.

Though assuming Dix personally was the problem, will now wonder forevermore how it might have been different if it had been Carole James starting with that supposed lead vs. Christy. Wonder if Jenny Kwan and her fellow Ides-of-Marchers are giving any thought to what they wrought.

[Mike K.]

It's not Dix, its the NDP as a whole that is the problem and I'm not sure the finger pointers will find the boogie man they are looking for. The electorate is scared of this party, it's
as simple as that. For the Liberals to have screwed up so dearly AND gotten re-elected shows just how out of touch and a non alternative the alternative was.

As for James she had her chance and lost. Bringing her back will just look like the party is trying to pit female vs. female and cross their fingers it resonates a little more with voters.

[mysage]

I got the impression it would depend on the findings of the navel gaz-, I mean, internal review of "WTF happened", and if looks like he was/is indeed the biggest liability, he will step down. And I'm sure get some encouragement on that front. No need to rush, they've once again got 4 years to the speaker's left to deal with it. Perhaps he (or the choices he made in this campaign) were the biggest problem, but after I recovered from the surprise, realized many factors could be looked at... the repetitious (and I thought too simplistic and without the trust behind it to be effective, but apparently I was wrong) Liberal message aside from attacking Dix, the collapse of the Conservatives as an alternative, and a few more besides.

Though assuming Dix personally was the problem, will now wonder forevermore how it might have been different if it had been Carole James starting with that supposed lead vs. Christy. Wonder if Jenny Kwan and her fellow Ides-of-Marchers are giving any thought to what they wrought.

The fact that the NDP elected Dix as their leader in the first place and then actually expected him to lead them to "the promised land" speaks more to muddled inner workings of the NDP than it does to anything else.

He was miscast from day one and his parties best chance in over a decade to grasp the brass ring was wasted by their running an awkard candidate who never connected with the public. This fundemental error is indicative of their lack of business acume. They are nothing more than a social movement masquerading as a political party.

[jonny]

The fact that the NDP elected Dix as their leader in the first place and then actually expected him to lead them to "the promised land" speaks more to muddled inner workings of the NDP than it does to anything else.

He was miscast from day one and his parties best chance in over a decade to grasp the brass ring was wasted by their running an awkard candidate who never connected with the public. This fundemental error is indicative of their lack of business acume. They are nothing more than a social movement masquerading as a political party.

Right.

The NDP is a social movement that is out of touch with the way many British Columbians want to see the province managed.

Like I said previously, they need to move more to the centre, like the federal conservatives did nearly 10 years ago, if they truly intend to become more electable. Until then, they will remain the official opposition.

For the time being, it looks as though they intend to stay the course.

[LJ]

^If they move to the center it will fracture their own party, there are too many die-hard socialists deeply involved with this party for that to ever happen. Perhaps the more moderate NDP could splinter off and form the BC Party2.

The more reasonable among them would be better off crossing the floor, joining the Liberals and try to move them a little left. That would be a party that would be unbeatable forever.

[jonny]

^If they move to the center it will fracture their own party, there are too many die-hard socialists deeply involved with this party for that to ever happen. Perhaps the more moderate NDP could splinter off and form the BC Party2.

The more reasonable among them would be better off crossing the floor, joining the Liberals and try to move them a little left. That would be a party that would be unbeatable forever.

I really doubt it.

Did moving to the centre fracture the federal Conservatives? The federal NDP are moving to the centre under Mulclair in an effort to become more electable. Is the federal party becoming fractured?

[Mike K.]

I would support the Liberals moving slightly to the left, as LJ says.

In BC we have the Cons and the Libs on the right. The NDP is the only party on the left (there are the Greens, but more on that in a sec) so yeah it has a loyal hardcore leftist following that wouldn't tolerate a move to the right. The last thing the NDP needs right now is to split the party up but this may already be underway with the emergence of the Greens.

[jonny]

I would support the Liberals moving slightly to the left, as LJ says.

In BC we have the Cons and the Libs on the right. The NDP is the only party on the left (there are the Greens, but more on that in a sec) so yeah it has a loyal hardcore leftist following that wouldn't tolerate a move to the right. The last thing the NDP needs right now is to split the party up but this may already be underway with the emergence of the Greens.

If the NDP, does not move to the centre, they will never get elected. They are currently unelectable. They may as well be declare, like the PQ, that they never actually intend on being elected.

I do not care if they move or not. If they have no real ambitions of being elected, that's fine by me. I'm not 'in' with the whole social movement crowd and don't care for the party.

I'm just saying they can't continue to be a fringe party, with fringe hardcore socialist principles, if they seriously intend on being the governing party.