5833 replies to this topic

[dasmo]

I’m not saying they shouldn’t sell at market value. The whole idea is to strike it rich. I am stoked for the guys I like like Chris. He played things super smart unlike the dockside green folks. Who were they again? Right... I am only saying no sympathy is required and they are not simply adjusting prices because of increased costs. Cost of materials and sub trades are going up because they want their cut. Why should only the developers and builders be making a pile. I’m not preaching against market forces. I’m struggling to navigate them as I build a house but I accept them. But... I accept them for what they are. I certainly don’t shrug and pay a drywall contractor 36k for two guys doing two weeks work and chalk it up to increasing costs. In fact I’m not going to have drywall in my house. T&G pine and earthen plaster walls will probably be cheaper and if it’s not I refuse to do drywall out of spite. All the condos and spec home subdivisions don’t have that choice.

Edited by dasmo, 05 November 2017 - 02:34 PM.

[tjv]

^that is very true, but everyone must also remember that economies also enter into recession such as 2008/09.  There were a lot of people walking away from their contracts and deposits which left the developer with a product he has to now sell even thou he started building in a boom at higher costs.  Also the government could come along and slap a 15% foreign buyers tax like they did in Vancouver which killed the real estate market there for a year or so

 

It works both ways

 

I also agree with Mike's comment about blaming developers and ignoring greedy homeowners

[dasmo]

“Greedy homeowners” is a complete diversion. If a homeowner needs to sell they probably need to buy. Possibly in a similar market. Take their cost of selling into account and a rapidly rising market they could easily take a hit. Or did you mean greedy house flippers? Them I could do without.

Edited by dasmo, 05 November 2017 - 02:37 PM.

[Mike K.]

No, it's not a diversion at all.

 

But it does shed light on your view of the housing situation, in that developers are greedy. But home owners probably need to sell to buy, possibly in a similar market.

 

Can you spot the difference in your assessment of the two groups? One is associated with something definitive. The other is not.

 

I would argue that considering the massive imbalance of re-sales to pre-sales, that its the re-sale market (home sellers) that is driving the rapid rise in real-estate prices, not the pre-sale market (developers). As it should be, considering how many re-sales are available for purchase and how many are purchased relative to pre-sales.

[rjag]

Developers are held hostage to market forces as much as homeowners. They have to negotiate trades pricing months ahead and hope the trades will show up. They have to hold multiple units and pay for expensive marketing programs while crystal ball gazing 1-2 years out that the market will still be viable. 

 

A homeowner can, for the most part choose the time to sell and choose the time to buy. A developer doesnt have that luxury, they carry far more risk are held hostage to the price of drywall just like you and as a result if they make a margin they are welcome to it. 

[dasmo]

Gotta get while the getting’s good. I understand that perfectly. I am part businessman. I think I have said multiple times I am not against anyone striking it rich. All I am saying is that is what is happening right now. They are striking it rich. Why does that upset y’all so much?

[lanforod]

I’m not saying they shouldn’t sell at market value. The whole idea is to strike it rich. I am stoked for the guys I like like Chris. He played things super smart unlike the dockside green folks. Who were they again? Right... I am only saying no sympathy is required and they are not simply adjusting prices because of increased costs. Cost of materials and sub trades are going up because they want their cut. Why should only the developers and builders be making a pile. I’m not preaching against market forces. I’m struggling to navigate them as I build a house but I accept them. But... I accept them for what they are. I certainly don’t shrug and pay a drywall contractor 36k for two guys doing two weeks work and chalk it up to increasing costs. In fact I’m not going to have drywall in my house. T&G pine and earthen plaster walls will probably be cheaper and if it’s not I refuse to do drywall out of spite. All the condos and spec home subdivisions don’t have that choice.

 

Assuming you're still doing wood frame... don't you still need blue board under the plaster? Blue board likely has gone up similar to drywall, no?

[dasmo]

Not a wood frame envelope. ICF. The inside wood frame walls will be the T&G pine. Inside exterior walls will be earthen plaster right on the ICF. Instead of paying lawyers to put up drywall I’m paying hippies to put up mud....

[tjv]

^or you could save a few bucks, buy the drywall yourself, hire boardmen to board, scrap out the house yourself, buy the mud/bead/tape yourself, hire tapers to complete and then do the clean up yourself.   Or better yet watch a bunch of YouTube videos and do it all yourself

[lanforod]

ICF? Is that cheaper than wood frame these days? Does that work for more than 1 storey too? Genuinely curious. I generally don't see anything else for SFH in BC, I'd suspect 99% do standard wood frame? Some log, and some ICF, and some crazy folks doing other weird stuff I guess, maybe steel or aluminum.

 

PS. Isn't it mandatory for VV members to have a dedicated house build thread? Marko inspired?

Edited by lanforod, 05 November 2017 - 07:48 PM.

[LJ]

ICF is just for the foundation walls usually, the basement.

[phx]

There's a nice house on Beach Drive that went in a few years ago, all ICF.

 

It did not look like a "budget build".

[LeoVictoria]

Gotta get while the getting’s good. I understand that perfectly. I am part businessman. I think I have said multiple times I am not against anyone striking it rich. All I am saying is that is what is happening right now. They are striking it rich. Why does that upset y’all so much?

 

The only surprising thing is that you are surprised

[Mike K.]

Switching gears from this thread, what does everyone foresee come January 1st and the spring of 2018?

 

Being in the market now I'm seeing a mad rush on properties that are priced in the $450-$700k range. Sellers are dropping prices in some cases, but well priced home sell almost instantly for near asking price.

 

Come the new year buyers in the $700-$1M purchase range will double down on $600 - $900k homes and try to get in as soon as possible, meaning there will be strong upwards pressure on prices for the lowest-priced SFD inventory on the West Shore.

 

My prediction for 2018?:

- inventory levels will remain suppressed

- buyers in the range for a $450-$600k home today will increasingly view condos as their only purchase option in 2018

- the lowest-priced inventory will increase to a base level of $500k, but sellers will be motivated to carry out upgrades

- $1M+ inventory will spend more time on market, with strong price concessions for homes in the $1M - $1.5M range

[lanforod]

I think RTA changes will also put upward prices on housing prices. There will be even less rental availability, so more renters will be looking to buy as they can't find anything to rent.

 

The positive part of that is landlords putting places up for sale, meaning increased inventory.

Edited by lanforod, 26 November 2017 - 01:16 PM.

[Mike K.]

You think landlords will start dropping inventory, even with the sky-high rents and this being a landlord’s market?

Changes to AirBnb zoning will definitely push some folks to sell, but the units are mostly condos and the rules limited to only the City of Victoria.

[lanforod]

I'm referring to the changes in the RTA, not local CoV changes. The fixed lease changes, effectively making it impossible to end a lease after 1 year and rent to someone, anyone, else unless you or family actually moves in or you manage to swing a major reno.

https://www2.gov.bc....-tenancies/news

 

Effectively, this makes it very risky to rent your property. You can do due diligence as much as possible, but you're still renting to a stranger.

[Mike K.]

Ah, right.

Now that only affected a very, very small percentage of rental agreements and even LandlordBC supported killing the option. I wouldn’t think that’ll be the impetus to sell for more than a few landlords.

[lanforod]

A very small percentage? I think we had a pretty good discussion earlier that many landlords do that for the first least with a new tenant.

[Mike K.]

I spoke with David Hutniak of LandlordBC and he said the percentage of one-year leases without a month-to-month clause is very, very small and the organization agrees such arrangements are not fair. Most renters will encounter either month-to-month or one year lease with a month-to-month clause.