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Victoria's housing market, home prices and values


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#2341 davidN

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 06:01 PM

And what we need given the amount of housing development and potential office development on the west shore is a real transportation solution that is scalable without multi-year, multi-million dollar public works projects coming after years of point failures. We need to situate a rail corridor somewhere NOW and allow residential and office development to grow organically around the stations, rather than trying to shoehorn a line in there after. A vehicle-based system is too susceptible to point failures and past experience all over the world has shown that scaling is problematic, not to mention the other negative environment, social and aesthetic impacts.

I agree with this to some degree. Having moved here over year ago I amazed at the sort sighted "transportation plan" . It makes no sense to wait. I am a firm believer in "build it and they will come". I talked to the development staff at the Westhills project and they told me that they have land set aside for a terminal of some sort and support some from of people movement system. In our conversation they mentioned that they like a "European Tram" system which would run on rubber wheels on the rail corridor that passes through their lands. They also told me that have 30 acres set aside for commercials/retail /office, condo development that could easily start development today if major tenants could be attracted by the development of a valid transportation plan to move people. They, like everyone it seems, are waiting on some political will to think beyond today and actually plan for tomorrow.



#2342 lanforod

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 06:49 PM

I would love a Vienna like system here.



#2343 van-island

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 10:16 AM

Is there a point failure between downtown and Sidney?  Not really, we have wide roads (Blanshard and out) and a decent highway sufficient for the population out there.

 

What is the Mount Newton intersection during morning/afternoon peak? Level of service D or thereabouts?

 

Whether this is currently a point failure or will become one in the future, the only fix for this type of failure is a very significant infrastructure project lasting years and costing tens of millions. There is also evidence that the phenomenon of induced demand quickly negates the benefit of many road improvement projects.

 

Fixing a similar capacity failure on a train line is usually a matter of adding additional train sets or frequency on the line, which is a marginal increase in costs (with a built-in level of cost recovery).

 

However my larger point is that the way we are doing infill right now is self-defeating; increased traffic etc. leads to increased resistance to infill and the current model will only make it more difficult to provide housing over time, as it already has done. Add this to the fact that development centered around rail lines tends to have a number of other positive benefits. 


Edited by van-island, 03 May 2018 - 10:19 AM.

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#2344 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 10:20 AM

There is also evidence that the phenomenon of induced demand quickly negates the benefit of many road improvement projects.

 

 

 

Is there, around here, all that quick?   Where building is fairly restricted.  Did the inland Island Highway improvements from just south of Nanaimo and the north get filled right up?

 

Did the "McKenzie extension", built in the 80's, get jammed again?

 

Is the McTavish roundabout plugged after only a few years?

 

I do not believe in this theory so much.  Maybe in LA, not around here.


Edited by VicHockeyFan, 03 May 2018 - 10:22 AM.

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#2345 van-island

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 10:23 AM

I am a firm believer in "build it and they will come".

 

It's not this simple though; in our current system I think that the province would need to either unilaterally relax land use restrictions on land around stations, or make funding conditional upon that happening. The last thing we want is a situation in Vancouver like the millennium line, where decades later the level of development still is nowhere near the level it should be.

 

The quid pro quo of such an infrastructure project should be that the majority of new development gets put in the right place. 



#2346 van-island

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 10:26 AM

Is there, around here, all that quick?   Where building is fairly restricted.  Did the inland Island Highway improvements from just south of Nanaimo and the north get filled right up?

 

Did the "McKenzie extension", built in the 80's, get jammed again?

 

Is the McTavish roundabout plugged after only a few years?

 

I do not believe in this theory so much.  Maybe in LA, not around here.

 

There was an article a while back (in the TC I believe, I'll try to find it) that the highway improvements in the area of the Colwood Crawl filled to capacity 7 years sooner than expected, or something like that. The existence of the highway improvements spurred West Shore development, filled up capacity and here we are, requiring very expensive fixes. That IS induced demand, and it will happen again, in the current paradigm. Sure it's not on an LA scale, but it's definitely there.

 

Were the Colwood Crawl a train line, the fix would have been quick and relatively cheap; add new train sets or increase frequency. 


Edited by van-island, 03 May 2018 - 10:27 AM.

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#2347 rsnxmt

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Posted 26 May 2018 - 10:24 PM

Why wouldn't mobility pricing that, for example, Vancouver is considering and effectively London and Stockholm have successfully implemented alleviate traffic congestion problems through this region? Rail systems are nice but it seems like mobility pricing could be put in place sooner.

 

It would make other options like transit more attractive though perhaps it may have another impact on raising demand for housing even more closer to work locations (see how I tied it back to the subject)


Edited by rsnxmt, 26 May 2018 - 10:39 PM.


#2348 Casual Kev

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Posted 26 May 2018 - 10:37 PM

Why wouldn't mobility pricing that, for example, Vancouver is considering and effectively London and Stockholm have successfully implemented alleviate traffic congestion problems through this region? Rail systems are nice but it seems like mobility pricing could be put in place sooner.

 

What other options do people living in the Westshore or north of Royal Oak have, though? All the cities you mentioned have established commuter rail networks. 



#2349 PraiseKek

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 08:31 AM

The Colwood Crawl is not just caused by commuters from Colwood and Langford though. It's the route used by commuters from Duncan, Shawnigan Lake and even some from Nanaimo and then add on Sooke. No train is going to solve this problem and thankfully no one serious is thinking it will.


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#2350 Mike K.

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 10:50 AM

It’s also commercial vehicles, workers travelling to meet clients, people travelling to make appointments, tourists and students. It’s a single route in and out of town that fills up with the hum of the city. No transit system will change that.

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#2351 tjv

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 11:14 AM

^but that exists in every city big or small



#2352 kxl

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 12:07 PM

While alliterations sound nice, isn’t the “Colwood Crawl” a misnomer, since it exists within the boundaries of View Royal?
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#2353 PraiseKek

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 06:49 PM

While alliterations sound nice, isn’t the “Colwood Crawl” a misnomer, since it exists within the boundaries of View Royal?

It's the langford/colwood and view royal crawl



#2354 Rob Randall

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 07:05 PM

While alliterations sound nice, isn’t the “Colwood Crawl” a misnomer, since it exists within the boundaries of View Royal?

 

The term denotes not the location, but the final destination, like the pilgramage to Mecca.


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#2355 Nparker

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 07:51 PM

The term denotes not the location, but the final destination, like the pilgramage to Mecca.

Then perhaps it should be called the "Langford lag" or the "Sooke shuffle"?



#2356 dasmo

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 07:52 PM

The Colwood Crawl is not just caused by commuters from Colwood and Langford though. It's the route used by commuters from Duncan, Shawnigan Lake and even some from Nanaimo and then add on Sooke. No train is going to solve this problem and thankfully no one serious is thinking it will.

It doesn’t solve the problem. It gives people the option not to be in the problem....

#2357 Mike K.

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 08:16 PM

It gives a very small amount of people the option of not having to drive.

The 50/61 service into town is quite frequent and decent for a region like Victoria, but the reason very few people take the bus is because they can’t eaily get to that bus. And that won’t change until transit services become more frequent and more dependable in communities that are currently undeeserviced or not serviced at all by a reasonably frequent connector route.

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#2358 dasmo

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Posted 28 May 2018 - 07:31 AM

It gives a very small amount of people the option of not having to drive.

The 50/61 service into town is quite frequent and decent for a region like Victoria, but the reason very few people take the bus is because they can’t eaily get to that bus. And that won’t change until transit services become more frequent and more dependable in communities that are currently undeeserviced or not serviced at all by a reasonably frequent connector route.

So using the same logic can we then say busses don’t work. People don’t take them. We should not build bus infrastructure. It only provides a few people an option to get somewhere who can’t afford or aren’t allowed to drive?

#2359 Mike K.

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Posted 28 May 2018 - 07:38 AM

It means that no matter how wonderful something may be, if people can't get to it to use it, it's not going to reach its full potential.


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#2360 dasmo

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Posted 28 May 2018 - 07:42 AM

E&N runs into the heart of “downtown” Langford and straight through the WestHills. Which is a GIANT parcel of still undeveloped land. Build high density around a tram link and thousands of people will have no problem getting to it....

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