5833 replies to this topic

[tjv]

^I think its also easier to find work.  I remember coming of age in the 90s and it was brutal trying to find a job, both as a high school and university graduate.  Even I had to move to Vancouver after university because I couldn't find a job, but was thankful to come back years later

[Casual Kev]

Yes, the retiree wave was something foreseen for many years ...but not necessarily planned for.

Victoria is also large enough now where the city’s youth are no longer as motivated to seek adventure elsewhere so we’re seeing many more high school and post-secondary graduates stay put.

 

Some tech professionals are moving from Vancouver looking for (relatively) cheaper grounds so there's that as well. But then again, those are all things that can be built for. If you have a class of people want to retire or work in Victoria the only thing stopping them will be the price tag, and if things aren't being built for them then they'll just displace current residents who can't bid up as much. Not like a boomer set on going to Victoria will be deterred by not having a brand new condo available to him (he'll buy something older or rent).

[Mike K.]

Yup, for sure.

Boomers cashing out of literally every city in this country have the capital to buy a nice condo here. Even if you’re from Edmonton chances are that house you just sold was worth $750k, and that’s plenty for a nice two-bedroom condo.

[tjv]

There is also the reality of telecommuting these days.  I've had companies approach me to do work in Vancouver and my immediate response that's fine, I am not moving there and will fly over on Harbour Air for meetings as needed

 

I also saw a woman for awhile that also worked remotely, 1 week away, 1 week in Montreal.

[Matt R.]

The latest two bedroom townhouse (actually a converted three bedroom) at Parkside Place sold for $425k in six days or less. Only five grand over asking.

Matt.

[Sparky]

^ I'll bet that swimming pool had a lot to do with it.

[Sparky]

^^ That complex is a sleeper. Excellent location.

[Matt R.]

Apparently the buyer had been outbid on the last two townhouses to come up for sale so this time went all in probably. These building are from the early 60’s, might be some room for redevelopment in the not so distant future. It’s a large piece of land.

Really though, and it was true for us, people buying there are unable to afford anything else without going much further out of town.

Matt.

[Rob Randall]

This could apply here as well:

 

[lanforod]

Breaking news: Supply and demand still works.

[tjv]

My guy tells me housing prices will start to be flat for the next few years.  Rental prices will continue to rise to catch up with the soaring housing prices we have seen for the last few years

[Mike K.]

Single-family-homes currently priced in the $450-$800k range are going to see the most demand and upwards pressure on prices, as will condos and townhomes.

 

It's the homes priced in excess of $800k and into the million-plus territory that will see flat prices or declining prices. 

 

Unlike all previous flat markets in Victoria, the current climate is not one of an economic downturn forcing buyers to retract, but one of mortgage rules and very high prices forcing buyers to lower their expectations while their borrowing power is diminished.

 

This, in turn, will put further pressure on the lower end of the market while propping up condo sales. Rentals will also face upwards pressure as would-be home buyers are forced to rent for a longer period or give up on ownership.

 

I reject the notion that the market has been "cooling." That's a negative term meant to imply declining demand. Victoria has more demand for its housing stock than it ever has but buyers can't afford to buy what's available for purchase or can't find what they're looking for due to the low inventory environment. There is nothing wrong with that picture from a market "health" perspective, but it will give some home sellers who thought they could fetch $1.2 million for a home they purchased five years ago for $750,000 some serious food for thought.

[aastra]

 

...rent prices have fallen in many major cities -- for rich people. Thanks to the boom in luxury building, developers are having to lower prices to fill all those new homes...

 

So that designer 4-level penthouse on the 35th floor that was renting for $25,000 per month has been slashed to $24,500 per month? I can see why this is news.

[LeoVictoria]

I reject the notion that the market has been "cooling." That's a negative term meant to imply declining demand. Victoria has more demand for its housing stock than it ever has but buyers can't afford to buy what's available for purchase or can't find what they're looking for due to the low inventory environment. There is nothing wrong with that picture from a market "health" perspective, but it will give some home sellers who thought they could fetch $1.2 million for a home they purchased five years ago for $750,000 some serious food for thought.

 

The market is cooling by any objective measure that you would like to use.   Days on market, sales, inventory, months of inventory, sales/list ratio.   

 

If you would like to make the claim that in fact the market is not cooling, you need some way to measure that.   Why is demand higher than ever?   How would you back up that claim?   You're right that demand has been curtailed due to a mismatch between what buyers can borrow and what houses cost.   But who cares about the people that can't afford the houses, the only people that matter to the market are those that can afford to buy.

[rjag]

  But who cares about the people that can't afford the houses, the only people that matter to the market are those that can afford to buy.

 

But isnt that one of the cornerstones of economics, supply and demand, price elasticity. As the volume of product available declines the remaining product increases in value to a point that nobody is willing to pay for it, then prices will adjust and as more product becomes available then the competition for buyers affects the price.... 

[Mike K.]

While the market was "cooling" over the last 18 months it broke multiple price records across multiple market segments, it saw pre-sale offerings sell at a pace not seen since prior to the economic collapse of 2008 (if not faster) and the bottom of the single-family-real-estate market is now $500,000. You literally cannot buy a no-strings-attached single-family-home for less than half a million in Sooke!* That's wild.

 

And all this while the federal government introduced a mortgage stress test for down payments below 20%, then above 20%, as mortgage rates rose and as lending regulations tightened (particularly for self-employed purchasers).

 

*Ok, I'm lying. There are seven.

[LeoVictoria]

While the market was "cooling" over the last 18 months it broke multiple price records across multiple market segments, it saw pre-sale offerings sell at a pace not seen since prior to the economic collapse of 2008 (if not faster) and the bottom of the single-family-real-estate market is now $500,000. You literally cannot buy a no-strings-attached single-family-home for less than half a million in Sooke!* That's wild.

 

And all this while the federal government introduced a mortgage stress test for down payments below 20%, then above 20%, as mortgage rates rose and as lending regulations tightened (particularly for self-employed purchasers).

 

*Ok, I'm lying. There are seven.

 

If you take a piece of metal out of the fire and wait for a few minutes you may still get burned when you touch it.  

That does not mean that piece of metal has not cooled down.  

[Mike K.]

But our metal got hotter.

[LeoVictoria]

But our metal got hotter.

 

It absolutely did not.  "Heat" in real estate refers to market conditions, not prices.

[tjv]

^not sure I agree with that, every time I think of Victoria real estate I thought of it as red hot as in prices skyrocketing

 

I think we are about to see the market enter a flat period over the coming 6-8 months.  I'm already seeing signs of projects being cancelled or significantly scaled back, although those projects are in the commercial sectors.  Some of the major generals in town are now starting to scramble for work too, although some remain busy.  Construction overall remains hot, but I am expecting that to start to cool as we head towards the end of the year.