5833 replies to this topic

[true blue oak]

Some more interesting news on the Canadian RE bubble - about to burst.

[true blue oak]

So far on the voting, as compared to Aug 2012:

28 think prices will go up next summer
29 think prices will continue on a flat line, unchanged
50 think prices will drop next summer

[dasmo]

OR
57 think prices will not drop next summer
50 think prices will drop next summer

[true blue oak]

OR
57 think prices will not drop next summer
50 think prices will drop next summer

agreed. Or another permutation:

28 think prices will go up next summer, 79 think they will not.

[dasmo]

Well you got me there...

[true blue oak]

Well you got me there...

No worries - I did a summer internship at the vreb school of spin.

[pherthyl]

No worries - I did a summer internship at the vreb school of spin.

You weren't paying enough attention.

28 people think prices will go up and you should buy now before being priced out.

29 think prices are stable and it's a great time to take advantage of low rates.

50 think it's a buyers market and you better buy before the market goes up again.

[Bingo]

And then there are the hundreds of VV members who have yet to vote and likely won't, because they don't care what happens to the bubble.

[MarkoJ]

You weren't paying enough attention.

28 people think prices will go up and you should buy now before being priced out.

29 think prices are stable and it's a great time to take advantage of low rates.

50 think it's a buyers market and you better buy before the market goes up again.

Given the split no clear indication of what happens next. I am surprised by how many people think prices will increase, that is impressive.

[Nparker]

And then there are the hundreds of VV members who have yet to vote and likely won't, because they don't care what happens to the bubble.

Or who don't think that a change of +/- 25% over a several year period is really a bubble at all.

[pherthyl]

Or who don't think that a change of +/- 25% over a several year period is really a bubble at all.

That's why there is this new thread that concentrates on where prices are going, rather than whether you technically consider it a bubble or not.
Although 25% decline is a big deal. Tons of people would find themselves in negative equity and unable to sell.

[true blue oak]

That's why there is this new thread that concentrates on where prices are going, rather than whether you technically consider it a bubble or not.
Although 25% decline is a big deal. Tons of people would find themselves in negative equity and unable to sell.

A 25% decline would cripple a lot of the people who have used their homes as ATMs. I know a lot of people in Oak Bay that live paycheque to paycheque and have been giving up any extras now. For example, I asked some friends to run in the race this weekend with me - a common statement was they just could not afford the fee.

[sebberry]

For example, I asked some friends to run in the race this weekend with me - a common statement was they just could not afford the fee.

That's usually what I say when someone asks me to do something athletic with them.

[dasmo]

RE 25%, "Tons of people would find themselves in negative equity and unable to sell."
Not according to the stats:
"Among homeowners who have mortgages (but not HELOCs), on average their home equity represents 49% of the value of their homes.
For owners with both mortgages and HELOCs, the equity ratio is 41%.
For owners without mortgages but with HELOCs, the equity share is 82%"

[LJ]

Interesting article on Global Vancouver news at 6. They were interviewing construction industry officials who say they are expecting a huge building boom in Vancouver thru next year with 142 cranes up. A shortage of skilled workers is increasing costs.

Building boom threatened by lack of workers? - News Hour - Videos | Global BC

[dasmo]

Interesting, the next boom already??? seems premature.

[pherthyl]

RE 25%, "Tons of people would find themselves in negative equity and unable to sell."
Not according to the stats:
"Among homeowners who have mortgages (but not HELOCs), on average their home equity represents 49% of the value of their homes.
For owners with both mortgages and HELOCs, the equity ratio is 41%.
For owners without mortgages but with HELOCs, the equity share is 82%"

Nothing in there says how many people have less than 25% equity. I'm pretty confident there are "tons" which is all I said.


Edit: 17% of home owners have less than 25% equity. More than enough given that only a very small percentage drives the market price.

[true blue oak]

That's usually what I say when someone asks me to do something athletic with them.

this is true - but these folks would have no problem telling me exactly what they thought - and they are active runners, so it is not at all out of the ordinary.

[true blue oak]

Happy Thanksgiving to all. May happiness fill your homes this weekend.

Whether we rent or own, we all have a lot to be thankful for.

[dasmo]

What! No we don't! Clearly you haven't been reading the news!



Just kidding! Wave a good thanks giving all.