5833 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

This is more or less where we have housing density on the south Island, and huge portions of what is in red is also very low density but I've coloured it in, anyways.

 

This is why a family home in Victoria, Duncan and Nanaimo now costs $650,000 if it has a walk score anywhere close to 25/100.

 

[jonny]

Right. We have a federal government that allows an annual net immigration of 500k and municipal governments that forbid or strongly restrict new housing. This equation does not compute.

 

Well, it computes, but the output is very high prices. 

Edited by jonny, 10 January 2018 - 03:20 PM.

[VicHockeyFan]

Right. We have a federal government that allows an annual net immigration of 500k and municipal governments that forbid or strongly restrict new housing. This equation does not compute.

 

Well, it computes, but the output is very high prices. 

 

Diversity is our strength, jonny.

[jonny]

Diversity is our strength, jonny.

 

I have no problem with diversity. I strongly support immigration. 

 

But, this bizarre situation where apparently the municipalities haven't gotten the memo that the population of our major cities is going up is sorta weird. 

[Nparker]

...But, this bizarre situation where apparently the municipalities haven't gotten the memo that the population of our major cities is going up is sorta weird. 

Not to mention the lack of understanding of the direct correlation between demand and the upward pressure on housing prices.

[dasmo]

The argument that there is limitless land doesn't fly. We can't build infrastructure with slave labour anymore so one has to consider the astronomical cost of infrastructure when looking at this. Especially when you look at the topography of the island. It costs 120 million dollars just to build a bridge to cross a tiny inlet! So yes there is land but is it inhabitable and what is the cost to make it so? This is also why there is a natural tendency to radiate from already established centers. And don't blame environmentalists for high house prices!!!! that is simply crazy. Free money and opening it up our realestate to the free market on the international stage would take the lion share of the blame. Next would be crazy regulations in general that have nothing to do with the environment like our city's way of spot zoning everything.

 

I will give you that the new energy step code going towards net zero they are rolling in are not going to do any favours for house prices. My house I'm building wouldn't even pass the final step and it is massively overbuilt by today's standards. There should be allowances for active houses and lower cost structures that have lower embodied energy.  These building codes were not driven by environmentalists I'm sure of it. Blame the bureaucrats for that BS! 

 

It's just as good for the environment to erect a yurt with a pellet stove than it is a passive house. One uses way less resources and energy to erect and maintain so a yurt is most likely better.  Less likely to put five bathrooms in a yurt too....

[Mike K.]

Sure is inhabitable. Langford reminds us of that every day.

[Mike K.]

To be honest, the folks who keep telling us that we mustn’t build out but build up can’t account why a region such as ours, which just ever so barely builds out, can’t manage to get a handle on rapidly rising housing costs.

Maybe it actually is cheaper to build out, after all? I dunno.

[jonny]

There would be minimal infrastructure costs to build on the peninsula.

[tjv]

Home ownership is going to become a luxury for the upper tiers of society unless we recognize that the environmentalism movement coupled with severe NIMBYism has destroyed access to truly affordable/attainable housing.

 

And I don't mean government-subsidized affordable housing, as its anything but and forces those trying to afford housing in the first place to pay for someone else's housing through ever rising taxes, new housing organizations, housing advocates, etc.

 

It's a shame that in this country, even on this Island, and even in this region, we have tremendous amounts of land on which politicians will not allow us to live on.

The bigger problem is frankly that the government has kept interest rates low for 15 years and now people have it in their heads that they can get money for 2 to 3% and rates will never go back up to the norms of 7 or 8%

 

Government has also brought in significant changes to the building code, WorksafeBC regulations, etc and all those costs are getting passed on to the consumer

 

Also the basement illegal suite laws were very enforced so people saw a mortgage payment of say 2500 with an illegal suite was only 1700 or instead of affording say a 400k house, they could get into something at 700k.

[Sparky]

Re your density map Mike, I like the way you didn't colour in Rural Saanich.

 

You can however colour in the area to the east of Elk Lake. This has become more built up ever since they put in the sewer line. That sewer system has caused more problems....

[Mike K.]

Oh yeah, I didn’t mean to leave the area east of the lake off.

[tedward]

The bigger problem is frankly that the government has kept interest rates low for 15 years and now people have it in their heads that they can get money for 2 to 3% and rates will never go back up to the norms of 7 or 8%

 

I'm still worried that they will go back up to the nearly 20% my parents had to deal with when I was in Junior High. LOL

[Nparker]

I'm still worried that they will go back up to the nearly 20% my parents had to deal with when I was in Junior High. 

Hopefully by the time that happens I will be done with my mortgage (5 more years!) and looking to get the best return on my retirement investment portfolio. Win-win!

[tjv]

^except if that happens the value of your house will fall off a cliff

 

as for my mortgage, I am in no rush to pay it off, although I could.  I would rather borrow money at ~2.5% and loan it out at credit card rates

[Nparker]

...if that happens the value of your house will fall off a cliff...

Except that my home will be entirely paid for and the only reason it will get sold will be if I die, so I don't care what it's worth then.

[LeoVictoria]

Currently the rate of construction is well above the levels required to address population growth.   That's a good thing since we are digging ourselves out from about 5 year of building less than was required (which was behind the inventory crunch we experienced in 2016 and 2017).   At this rate of construction we should see that ease.   

 

 

Read more:  https://househuntvic...mes-the-supply/

Edited by LeoVictoria, 11 January 2018 - 10:24 PM.

[LeoVictoria]

Also according to the buyer origin survey (Realtors inputting where the buyer moved from when buying), the number of Lower mainland buyers were down by about 21% compared to the previous year.    Note that if a Vancouver buyer moved here and rented first before buying, they would no longer be counted as a Vancouver buyer.   

Otherwise nothing of great note in the data, buyers moving from Asia or the US are up but still only about 0.1% of total buyers in the region.

[Mike K.]

Interesting. So there’s no way to capture new arrival data if they first rent prior to purchasing? That’s not good. You’d imagine such data was important and there would be multiple categories to capture it.

[LeoVictoria]

Interesting. So there’s no way to capture new arrival data if they first rent prior to purchasing? That’s not good. You’d imagine such data was important and there would be multiple categories to capture it.

Well you get a sense of it from population growth rates.

As for capturing it, how could you? When does someone become a local? After 3 months? 6 months? 10 years?

I don’t think it’s a big deal. Some percent of out of town buyers rent first, others move directly here. I don’t see a reason to believe that the percentage of people that rent first changes substantially over the years so measuring the people that buy directly is a decent proxy for the rate of out of town buyers as a whole