5833 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

I am not even sure why anyone is bickering over these numbers. all things going well this blip won’t even register looking back in 2 or 5 years.

[max.bravo]

^For people considering buying or selling right now, it's pretty important data!

[Victoria Watcher]

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. officials said Tuesday they expect real estate prices won't return to pre-recession levels until late 2022 at the earliest.

 

The housing agency also cautioned that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unpredictable and beyond its worst-case estimates prior to the outbreak.

 

 

https://www.vancouri...ears-1.24130035

[Mike K.]

^For people considering buying or selling right now, it's pretty important data!

I just don’t think it is.

We hyper analyze and overthink real estate data because we’re real estate nerds. Like car guys, right? They’ll spend a hundred hours fine tuning a carb to get several extra horses out of the thing and think they’ve really nailed it this time! But does it actually matter at the end of the day? Not really.

People buy homes because they’ve finally qualified, they've moved here, there’s another baby on the way, or whatever. They don’t buy homes because the seasonal average over a four week period dipped several percentage points and according to several analytical assessments it’s statically speaking quite likely the time to buy. And if it’s not, according to this complex algorithm youve cooked up, what are you going to tell the wife when she’s already fallen in love with the kitchen? That you’re sorry, but you’re holding out for an extra month, or 38?

[max.bravo]

That’s probably true for many people, but not all. Im currently negotiating on a property, and I used the numbers to help inform my idea of a good price at this moment in time... and the stats are also useful for helping the other party see things from your perspective:)

[Greg]

For sure the pandemic has some affect. If you had just barely saved up enough for a down payment, and then suddenly haven't worked the last six weeks, that's going to have an impact. On the other hand, if you were waiting for lower interest rates to buy, then that has an impact as well. I suspect we really don't know the true impact yet, because it depends so much on what happens over the next few weeks. If we reach a point where many things have returned to some semblance of normal, I don't think there will be any real downturn. Lack of cruise ships and no big concerts won't really destroy the housing market. Long term double digit unemployment on the other hand would definitely make a difference. 

[Szeven]

There appears to be a bit of an odd glut forming in Uplands.  The low end of the market there has 10 listings currently, 5 of which have been bought for flips in the last 3 years.

 

3255 Norfolk sold 2017 1.9m listed 2.05

3175 Exeter sold 2017 1.975m listed 2.069

3350 Upper terrace, sold twice since 2016, empty, listed 2.35

3275 Norfolk sold 2018 2.25m listed 2.47

3320 Ripon, sold 2018 2.85m listed 3.39

 

I assume these were purchased for new builds or extensive renovations, but it could be interesting to see what happens. In addition to these 5 there are 5 other properties in this price range that dont show recent sales on bc assessment. 

[Mike K.]

This could also be a vacancy tax problem, I think?

[johnk2]

There appears to be a bit of an odd glut forming in Uplands.  The low end of the market there has 10 listings currently, 5 of which have been bought for flips in the last 3 years.

 

3255 Norfolk sold 2017 1.9m listed 2.05

3175 Exeter sold 2017 1.975m listed 2.069

3350 Upper terrace, sold twice since 2016, empty, listed 2.35

3275 Norfolk sold 2018 2.25m listed 2.47

3320 Ripon, sold 2018 2.85m listed 3.39

 

I assume these were purchased for new builds or extensive renovations, but it could be interesting to see what happens. In addition to these 5 there are 5 other properties in this price range that dont show recent sales on bc assessment. 

Take out the selling costs and there is no profit in those so I dont think they are flips, more likely what Mike said.

[Mike K.]

South Cowichan continues to outperform.

 

Here's the roundup of the latest larger property sales there:

 

Telegraph Road: $799 -> $815 | 1 DOM

Miner Road: $640 -> $625 | 0 DOM

Braithwaite Drive: $625 -> $652.5 | 9 DOM

Chapman Road: $720 -> $735 | 10 DOM

Shawnigan Lake Road: $865 -> $883 | 0 DOM

Cameron Taggert Road: $600 -> $626 | 24 DOM

Dunwick Road: $900 -> $860 | 19 DOM

Sallachie Road: $1.149 -> $1.095 | 18 DOM

Stonecrest Way: $1.099 -> $1.085 | 19 DOM

[max.bravo]

^I've noticed fewer and fewer good deals up there over the past year or two. There goes my plan of selling the house in town and retiring early to a hobby farm on the lake... 

[Mike K.]

You might have to consider Comox Lake or frontage on the Campbell River the way things are going.

 

Within the CRD itself, the smart money is flooding into Sooke and points beyond along Highway 14. And COVID has expedited the already strong desire to leave urban areas and seek out more rural communities.

[max.bravo]

I've kept my eye on Jordan River and area since those little subdivision lots were first released.. what, 8-9 years ago? For $90k with developer financing iirc. Now they all seem to be $300-400k for bare land. 

 

The good deals are even evaporating in my backup-backup plan of Port Alberni. Just a couple years ago you could buy a city lot in town up there for $30k. It's more than double that now for the same thing. I knew I should've bought one a few years ago! Getting harder to find good getaway spots on little island of ours. 

[Mike K.]

Yes, indeed. I had wanted to purchase a little cabin or something further up-Island, maybe in the Black Creek/Miracle Beach area. No way is that happening now. The homes around there are going for $700-$1M+. It's truly a beautiful part of the world, so it's not surprising people are retiring there and splitting the difference between shopping in CR and Comox.

 

Even further up-Island in the Port McNeil area things are heating up.

 

Meanwhile you've still got legions of people who believe SFDs in Gordon Head will one day fall to $400k because housing prices are just a bubble.

[Mike K.]

Another thing to consider is people are also avoiding the spec tax zones, so you're going to see more interest among the wealthier purchasers north of the CRD.

[Casual Kev]

I don't think the downtown will have much of an effect in retirement/getaway destinations. Those with savings still have the money, those not so rich maybe see this as the one chance to buy in and our currency going to the crapper should keep foreign demand there. That said, I wouldn't bet on Port Alberni...

[Matt R.]

Another thing to consider is people are also avoiding the spec tax zones, so you're going to see more interest among the wealthier purchasers north of the CRD.

How’s the market on salt spring these days, Mike? Wild West, it’s tax free everything out here.

Matt.

[Mike K.]

You know I’m not sure. It’s not an area I pay much attention to.

What are you seeing, Matt?

[Matt R.]

Almost no activity in my range. Maybe some movement in the million plus range but the PCS search I pay attention to has not had any activity in many weeks. The ones I do track, 4 bedroom in the <$800,000 range, have gone for asking or less than. Only a few have moved.

I also see the townhouse at Parkside hasn’t moved. Typically they go within a few days, this one has been a few weeks I think.

Matt.

Edited by Matt R., 13 May 2020 - 11:32 PM.

[Mike K.]

A place in East Sooke I looked at before buying my home is back on the market. It sold in April of 2018 for $634k, and I see it's now listed for $849k.

 

I'll be keeping an eye on it to see where it ends up as that's quite the value increase for a home that from the photos in the listing doesn't appear to have had any work done.