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Victoria's housing market, home prices and values


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#3581 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 07:57 AM

No, but that's not what I'm getting at. What I'm saying is living in Ladysmith, or Qualicum, is now possible for legions of 30-50-somethings that were formerly constrained by a physical office location in Victoria.

 

yet by and large they did not move there and put their victoria homes up for sale.  if any significant number had done that we would have seen more listings and/or a drop in prices here.  that did not happen.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 30 August 2021 - 07:59 AM.

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#3582 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 08:06 AM

I'm also not saying these people owned homes, but the opportunity to own a home is certainly much larger outside of the city. The rental rate is so tight, especially with post-secondary students, that you'd never know it if 5,000 people had left the region by looking at vacancies. Those units would be absorbed by people coming in, or renting suites solo after living with roommates.

 

I'm also not saying Victoria's population has dropped. Quite the contrary, I suspect we'll see a significant increase when census details emerge next year.

 

What I'm saying, though, is we, for the first time ever, are confronted with a workable scenario for young(er) people to feel incentivized to leave the city and still maintain good employment, rather than having to pursue good employment solely within the city.


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#3583 Greg

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 08:50 AM

I think it's pretty hard to balance the statement "people are flooding out of cities like we've never seen" with "I'm not saying the population has dropped." I agree that working from home, and people reassessing their lives due to the pandemic, has led to some folks having different options than they might have in the past. But either there is a mass exodus in Victoria or there isn't. And housing supply, housing prices, and rental stock suggest that there isn't. 


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#3584 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 08:54 AM

I’m not saying there’s a mass exodus, either. Im saying we’ve never seen the volumes of people flooding out that we are seeing, or saw over the last 18 months.

Be it 5,000 or 10,000, those are huge numbers, when previously the annual flood from City to Rural would have been 1,000 (this is just an example; we don’t have migration data yet but will next year). Lots of newcomers are arriving, too, in larger numbers because to them Victoria is that small City, which to us is Port Alberni.

I’m basing my hunch on real-estate demand and how it has shifted since 2019 (Some US cities in particular have seen a pronounced exodus).

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#3585 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 09:17 AM

We have to ask ourselves, what’s keeping people where they are, if they’re unhappy with where they are, or struggling to juggle employment with the cost of living? The #1 issue in Victoria if you go by social media discussions is: cost of housing. Well I hate to break it to everyone, but it’s impossible to build a $700,000 house for $450,000.

There is no better time than right now if you work in the restaurant industry (as one example) to move. You’ve got employers desperate for labour in places that are more affordable.

Professionals, too, are weighing the need to be in a specific location. This is the first time in modern history where economic opportunities are favourable “outside” of high density urban areas for more people than ever before on a national scale.

The societal shift that’s taking place is huge, and I don’t think we see it just yet.

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#3586 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 09:33 AM

We have to ask ourselves, what’s keeping people where they are, if they’re unhappy with where they are, or struggling to juggle employment with the cost of living? The #1 issue in Victoria if you go by social media discussions is: cost of housing. Well I hate to break it to everyone, but it’s impossible to build a $700,000 house for $450,000.

 

yet most people in real life - not on social media - own their own home.   just like they always have in canada the percentage ownership has not really changed in decades.  

 

CensusHousing_Chart1.png


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 30 August 2021 - 09:36 AM.


#3587 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 09:47 AM

It’s the inverse in Victoria, though. 60% rent. Regionally I don’t know what the average is, but I’d bet it’s lower than the national average (owned vs rented).

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#3588 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 09:50 AM

It’s the inverse in Victoria, though. 60% rent. Regionally I don’t know what the average is, but I’d bet it’s lower than the national average (owned vs rented).

 

CoV.  as there are lots of rentals.   always has been high rentals.

 

the CRD mirrors the national numbers but pushed down a bit by the CoV.  exclude CoV from the numbers and the rest of the CRD is likely 70% - near the highest in the whole country.

 

https://www.vancouve...rld-rbc-3094928

 

 


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 30 August 2021 - 09:59 AM.


#3589 Greg

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:11 AM

It’s the inverse in Victoria, though. 60% rent. Regionally I don’t know what the average is, but I’d bet it’s lower than the national average (owned vs rented).

 

But that's mostly a reflection of our stupid multiple municipalities, right? I mean the numbers for CRD must be pretty close to average.



#3590 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:14 AM

i'd think so.  nothing has changed.  we just like to label stuff "crisis" 100x more than we used to.


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#3591 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:24 AM

Here’s an idea, let’s just exclude all rental housing from our numbers, then we can say 100% of housing is owned.

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#3592 lanforod

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:26 AM

Excluding the CoV from CRD numbers makes no sense anyways. you wouldn't exclude downtown halifax from Halifax region numbers.



#3593 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:29 AM

Excluding the CoV from CRD numbers makes no sense anyways. you wouldn't exclude downtown halifax from Halifax region numbers.

 

i would not exclude james bay from CoV numbers, but if I did CoV would be close to 70% ownership too.

 

we have no housing crisis here and we never have had one - compared to any other part of the country.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 30 August 2021 - 10:29 AM.


#3594 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:33 AM

Who said anything about a crisis?

I’m talking about opportunities. My message is cities are no longer at the level of opportunity they were at in 2019. Smaller communities are now able to compete.

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#3595 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:40 AM

i would not exclude james bay from CoV numbers, but if I did CoV would be close to 70% ownership too.


Why stop there? Keep excluding the data you don’t like until you hit 100%.

We’re also talking about five year old data. Rental construction has far outpaced owned construction in this region since then and shows no signs of abating.

Ownership rates are on the decline, and while crisis is an overused term I think it’s fair to point out that for a growing number of people priced out of homeownership there are opportunities on Vancouver Island that now make sense to tap, especially if you’re in the service industry or if you can work from home.

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#3596 lanforod

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:43 AM

Why stop there? Keep excluding the data you don’t like until you hit 100%.

We’re also talking about five year old data. Rental construction has far outpaced owned construction in this region since then and shows no signs of abating.

Ownership rates are on the decline, and while crisis is an overused term I think it’s fair to point out that for a growing number of people priced out of homeownership there are opportunities on Vancouver Island that now make sense to tap, especially if you’re in the service industry or if you can work from home.

 

You should be an expert on this, but my gut tells me that maybe isn't correct for a 5 year range; given all the condos that went up 5-3 years ago and the massive construction on Bear Mountain and Royal Bay.



#3597 Mike K.

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 10:57 AM

Oh yeah, rental construction has far outpaced owned construction, and lots of owned construction is rented (in a typical condo we can see rates of rentals range from 20-50%).

I estimate that 70-75% of housing built on the south Island since 2015 is occupied by a renter.
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#3598 rmpeers

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Posted 30 August 2021 - 11:05 AM

I agree.

I have no expertise.


Ha, where has expertise gotten us?
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#3599 Midnightly

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Posted 31 August 2021 - 12:12 AM

i think the crisis aspect is that there are people out there who can afford the rents (not the high end but the lower to middle rent window-basically what would be the average if you eliminated the 2k 1 bedrooms out there) but they are unable to find those rentals...the demand just outstrips supply with a near nil



#3600 Mike K.

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Posted 31 August 2021 - 10:50 AM

Also, we should add that many new SFDs built within the CRD include a suite, which can be rented, and some will be but the figure/stat will get jotted down as an owner occupied property.


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