5833 replies to this topic

[dasmo]

The earliest pricing info we have is from 2009, when a phase was hitting the market with inventory identified with introductory priced units "below $300,000."

 

$76k sounds very low to me. In the early 90s you could buy a condo in Vic West for about that, as a starting price. Houses were $250k-$300k at the time.

I bought my house for $192K 2003. 

[Mike K.]

In Vic West? Brand new?

[dasmo]

Granted the neighbour bought there hose for 200 something K in the 90's. I remember talking to him and them saying the prices had finally caught up. 

[dasmo]

VicWest 1933. 

[Mike K.]

Ok ok, you did the right thing, regardless.

[dasmo]

I remember also looking at a house for $140kish on Pine I think. It was being eaten by ants so I passed. That house flipped a lot over the next few years. Looked at another for $180K. Basement stunk of water rot... Sub 200k was a tad bottom feeding sure. But I found a jewel in the rough! 

[dasmo]

I met the original owner of the house one day. Told me the house was built by his parents for $3Kish. He said the fireplace cost $400! It was a cool fireplace. 

[lanforod]

VicWest 1933. 

 

A 1933 home? I guess that figures out then.

[dasmo]

A 1933 home? I guess that figures out then.

Yep. Wonderful old growth cedar siding and all old growth fir lumber and original windows. Still holding up to the test of time. Single pane was a tad drafty but easy to fix. and still all there almost 100 years later. It was neglected and apparently even boarded up for a while. Exterior just needed to be acid washed and the window frames sanded and then stained a boom, she was a beauty. White Knight Painting. Amazing job!  I remember all the windows in my parents house growing mold inside them. 70s... No refurbishing them. 

[dasmo]

Not a knot to be seen. It was a hard choice painting the inside but the transition to white from the mega dark fir was definitely a good choice. All original doors and floors as well. Being boarded up probably saved a bunch of these details. Even the original kitchen cabinets. I kept those and integrated it into my refresh of the kitchen. I pass on the old farm sink though. 

[Mike K.]

Pics or it’s not real.

[dasmo]

Pics or it’s not real.

If it was a few years ago I would easy, now I'm a little worried about being hunted down by some crazy hanging out on VV doing a blade runner style analysis of the photos. 

Edited by dasmo, 05 May 2022 - 09:53 PM.

[LJ]

I notice houses on my drives now are staying on the market for a lot longer than just a couple of weeks ago. You would see the sign go up, then drive by the next day with sale pending or sold sign on it. Now I see them two weeks later lingering with no sold signs.

[spanky123]

I notice houses on my drives now are staying on the market for a lot longer than just a couple of weeks ago. You would see the sign go up, then drive by the next day with sale pending or sold sign on it. Now I see them two weeks later lingering with no sold signs.

 

Happening everywhere. Increasing interest rates are causing hesitation with buyers. 

[Mike K.]

And sellers have to chill out a bit, too. It's been a seller's market for two years and people think just because they'd like to get $1.3M for a ho-hum 60s home, they should. And too many agents are not helping the situation by only going along with what their sellers have convinced themselves of.

 

I'm seeing a ton of listings I saw 30 days ago, priced too high, languishing on the market. If I knew they were badly priced from the second they hit the market, surely the agent and the seller do, too, no?

[Citified.ca]

Q&A with Island Realm Real Estate's Tony Zarsadias on Victoria's residential housing market and new supply

https://victoria.cit...and-new-supply/

[Victoria Watcher]

You can’t look at construction rates alone and infer whether or not you have a housing shortage. There are so many other factors to consider, including household size (see chart below). A drop in household size alone, for example, means that you need more housing, even if nothing else is going on.

 

 

The US is probably short at least several million housing units right now.

 

 

Vacancy rates, within a market, are pretty useful for predicting housing cost increases. When vacancy rates fall, prices go up. This is one reason why housing supply matters.

 

 

Looking at the gap between population increases and housing supply increases is “hilariously non-predictive” if you’re trying to determine whether or not you need more housing. We’ve all seen this before: This city added X people, but only constructed Y new homes.

 

 

Finally, there is an extremely strong correlation between housing supply restrictions (i.e. land use restrictions) and home prices. It turns out that the harder we make it to build new homes, the more expensive they become.

 

Is There a Housing Shortage or Not?

 

https://construction..._eid=d3c3a20417

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusion:

So, to sum up:

• Evidence suggests the US is short several million housing units. This shortage currently shows up as a historically low vacancy rate, which makes it harder to find a home to rent/purchase and drives housing prices up.

• Changes in vacancy rate is reasonably predictive of changes in housing prices within a metro area. Average vacancy rate is less good at predicting price changes between metro areas (though it’s still better than most other metrics.)

• We don’t see much evidence that a mismatch between population growth and housing construction is responsible for housing price increases, though we’re very far from being able to rule this out.

• We see a very strong correlation between land use restrictions and rental rates, at least as of 2019.

• There’s a reasonable amount of evidence that housing prices tend to adjust to match regional incomes.

• In general, housing trends are largely driven by a small number of outlier metros. In particular, Bay Area metros are housing trend outliers, and will give the appearance of stronger trends than actually exist if you just look at a small number of metro areas that includes them.

• Because of changing trends (lower immigration and population growth, homes being kept in service for longer, a slowing of the rate of change of average household size) current rates of homebuilding can’t be compared to historic rates of homebuilding.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 May 2022 - 04:41 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

"Our kids can't afford to buy here, where they grew up!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

also:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Young homebuyers taking a surprising share of Vancouver Island’s market

 

Boomers downsizing, helping their children enter the market

 

https://www.vicnews....islands-market/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 May 2022 - 05:36 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

Here is The Tyee against Vancouver density (outside of downtown):

 

 

Broadway Corridor Plan: Seven Needed Amendments

 

The proposed massive changes to Vancouver ignore basics for affordability and livability. Council, take note.

 

 

https://thetyee.ca/A...paign=editorial

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 12 May 2022 - 07:46 AM.

[spanky123]

^ That is because "affordability" means different things to different people. To CoV and Vancouver councils, affordability is 20% less than some arbitrary FMV. So instead of $2,500 for a spanking new 1 bedroom apartment, a councilor or one of their buddies can get it for $2,000 a month. Great for them but hardly doing anything for the retailer worker they pretend to care about.