6184 replies to this topic

[Mike K.]

It’s not exactly a bad thing to have a mortgage with a Class A lender, and their rates/terms will be very similar regardless of which big bank you’re with.

Just be glad if your mortgage is renewed without hassle. Not everyone is so lucky.

[Citified.ca]

Ryan Cook shed light on what went down in November, and what it could mean for the winter real-estate market.

 

November’s real-estate activity in Victoria points to buyer’s market as sales dropped, prices followed

https://victoria.cit...rices-followed/

[Victoria Watcher]

Strange listing:

 

https://www.realtor....dney-south-east

[Victoria Watcher]

Spending on housing programs will decline by more than half over the next four years with the federal government’s $13-billion signature housing initiative leading to the construction of just 26,000 new homes, a new parliamentary budget officer (PBO) report says.

 

The budget watchdog's report specifically looks at Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new housing agency, Build Canada Homes, and how it and other programs will contribute to the construction of new homes between now and 2029-30.

 

The report concludes that the $9.8 billion the federal government is spending on housing initiatives in 2025-26 will decline to just $4.3 billion annually by 2028-29, a drop of 56 per cent.

 

 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...eport-9.6931844

 

 

In a report released in August, the PBO said Canada needs to build 690,000 new housing units by 2035, on top of what is already being built, to meet housing needs across the country. 

 

To address that housing gap, Carney announced during the election campaign that he would establish Build Canada Homes to act as a developer overseeing the construction of housing in Canada.

 

The agency was launched with what was described as an "initial investment of $13 billion" to provide financing and land, attract investment and help builders get projects off the ground. 

 

Tuesday’s report says between now and 2029-30, Build Canada Homes will spend $7.3 billion of the $13 billion on grants, loan concessions, contributions to provincial programs and community supports for low-income rentals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$13B / 26,000 homes is $500,000 per home.

$7.3B / 26,000 homes is $280,770 per home.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 02 December 2025 - 12:56 PM.

[Victoria Watcher]

Alto estimates that a 12-month fee holiday could save builders about $6 million, based on the city’s historical revenue trends.

 

To make up for the lost revenue and pay for the ongoing costs of regulating ­construction in the city, Alto is proposing to draw on the city’s development ­stabilization reserve.

 

The reserve has about $18.8 million, built up from fees that ­developers and builders have to pay to the city, including various permit application and ­inspection fees.

 

It’s meant to be a financial cushion to pay for city staff who oversee construction when there’s a downturn in the building industry.

 

 

https://www.timescol...oposal-11585629

 

 

 

 

 

Pay those city staff members to do what?

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 December 2025 - 12:49 AM.

[Mike K.]

It’s meant to be a financial cushion to pay for city staff who oversee construction when there’s a downturn in the building industry.

The fund was established, so developers pay to maintain bureaucracy in a down market, in other words.

If free land won’t change the math for a lot of private projects, a 1.4% line item on a $75 million build is unlikely to move the needle, either. The bigger motivator would have been a tax holiday, which so many social projects built by what we call non-profits enjoy so much, that the social housing industry is blossoming at levels like we’ve never seen, at least not in modern times.

[Mike K.]

The federal government wants foreign dollars back in the Canadian housing market.

The federal government is considering changing the tax code to attract large foreign investors to domestic real estate developments, with support for such reforms coming from the head of Build Canada Homes, the new federal agency tasked with building affordable housing at scale.

Ana Bailão, who was appointed chief executive of Build Canada Homes in September, has been travelling across the country for weeks, appearing on panels and at conferences to show the government’s commitment to solving the affordable housing crisis.
…
Because rents are now falling in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, development yields on rental projects are now around 4.5 per cent, The Globe recently reported, and backers can have their money tied up in the projects for decades. (Condo developments, meanwhile, returned their cash when the building was completed and condo unit buyers took ownership.)

With rental development yields so low, institutional investors have many other options to earn similar returns, including U.S. Treasury bonds, which offer similar returns for much less risk. Tax reforms, however, could boost the returns and make Canadian rental apartment development look more attractive to foreigners.

- https://www.theglobe...e-developments/

[LJ]

Then:  foreign investment bad - drives up house prices.

 

Now: foreign investment good - builds houses.

 

Got it.

[Mike K.]

Here’s a good bit from the article:

Beyond tax reform, Ms. Bailão also argued for “alignment” between all levels of government to help solve the housing crisis, because they often counteract each other. “You can’t have the federal government removing the HST on rentals and then municipalities increasing their development charges,” she said. The two measures offset each other.

Except on the foreign money in real estate file. Everyone was in alignment.

What is stopping Canadian banks from financing Canadian projects? There’s plenty of money for that. Or are we saying, that Canadian banks are over-leveraged domestically and can no longer take on more domestic risk?

[Citified.ca]

Ryan Cook provides us with insight into the Sooke housing market for November. The suburb bucked the trend seen in other parts of Victoria last month.

 

Sooke Region's real-estate market saw stable November, with notable price gains for single-family homes

https://victoria.cit...e-family-homes/

[Mike K.]

This is the insanity that drove up housing prices. Vancouver is taking a hiatus from its part of the problem. We are fortunate some of these great ideas never made it over here.

It also looks like they’re changing affordable rental rent caps, and doing away with forcing bike parking and car-share parking.

Amid a crash in the condo market, halted projects, tariffs and escalating construction costs, Vancouver City Council approved a package of changes aimed at offering developers some relief, especially for multiunit projects.

Among them: new, higher rent ceilings for apartments that were supposed to be at below-market rates; a temporary 20-per-cent reduction in development fees; a break on contributions for public art; the elimination of a requirement to provide community benefits by sourcing 10 per cent of materials and labour locally; and a temporary halt to requirements for alternatives to car parking.

Those, and more, are aimed at reducing the cost of building in order to kick-start a construction industry that has been almost paralyzed the past two years by expenditures that outpace what they can get for selling or renting homes.

…

The changes that prompted the most concern from public speakers this week were to the community benefit program (CBA), which only applies to mega projects, and to bike and car-share requirements.

Several speakers involved with social-mission-focused organizations in the Downtown Eastside pleaded with council not to proceed on a one-year suspension of the CBA requirement, as staff had recommended.

“The impact of the CBA program is real and life-changing,” said Marcia Noziak, with EMBERS, an organization dedicated to finding employees for corporate “social-impact” programs.

“The CBA turned construction sites into engines of economic mobility. There are people who simply needed a chance.”

- https://www.theglobe...opment-changes/

[Citified.ca]

Big billions: Victoria real-estate market recorded second-highest grossing year in 2025, with 6,918 properties sold

https://victoria.cit...roperties-sold/

[Tony]

Inflation helps here.

[Victoria Watcher]

Vancouver area home sales hit lowest level in more than two decades in 2025

 

A surge in listings, low prices and shaky buyer confidence defined a difficult year for sellers, experts say

 

 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...sales-9.7034552

 

 

 

Residential sales in the region totalled 23,800 last year, down 10.4 per cent from 2024 and nearly 25 per cent below the 10-year annual average. 

 

The board said it was the fewest number of homes sold in the region, eclipsing the numbers recorded during the 2008 financial crisis, which saw more than 24,000 properties sold.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 05 January 2026 - 07:33 PM.

[Mike K.]

Inflation helps here.

If inflation helped, we’d be seeing higher prices by default across the nation. Inflation doesn’t really factor in to real-estate prices over short term periods like year-over-year or several years. If inflation was a key driver, then the average price of a single family home in Victoria would be $1.53 million today based on inflation alone, and not below the 2021 peak of $1.33 million. In 2025 it was $1.305 million.

Downtown saw a 3% value retraction on average, and the median dropped as well. Sales actually rose, and days on marked only increased by 1, from 47 in 2024 to 48 in 2025. But that’s in light of the condo market overall seeing higher prices in 2025, although lower sales by 65 units.

[dasmo]

I think we can agree that house prices have inflated over the last ten years though….

[Mike K.]

Real-estate has appreciated significantly faster than inflation over the long term, thanks to boom cycles where the commodity can’t keep up with demand.

That being said, prices have had a dampening effect on inflation since the last boom cycle, which was followed by rapid inflation, but housing prices fell and still remain below 2021 prices.

[spanky123]

Except on the foreign money in real estate file. Everyone was in alignment.

What is stopping Canadian banks from financing Canadian projects? There’s plenty of money for that. Or are we saying, that Canadian banks are over-leveraged domestically and can no longer take on more domestic risk?

 

If we look at the supply / demand curve there is a strong argument that we are moving towards an oversupply in the condo / apartment market in many cities. Not a surprise really with the population declining due to a reduction in immigration. If you believe that premise, then why would you want to invest in new housing at this point in time? Wait until prices and costs settle and then do the math.

 

The developers in town that I know aren't reliant on external financing for small to mid sized projects but they are still putting them on hold.  

[Mike K.]

The government tells us we have a historic under-supply of housing. You ask us to believe government above other sources, but your government is contradicting your sense of what’s actually going on. And I suspect you may be right, but your governments say you are wrong.

[spanky123]

The government tells us we have a historic under-supply of housing. You ask us to believe government above other sources, but your government is contradicting your sense of what’s actually going on. And I suspect you may be right, but your governments say you are wrong.

 

We did have a big undersupply and then we sent 500K foreign students home and didn't renew the work permits of hundreds of thousands. That quickly tipped the scales in the other direction as shown by a drop in population as opposed to massive increases in recent years.