847 replies to this topic

[Nparker]

You really need to send these articles to CoV council aastra.

[aastra]

More news items about police foot patrols. As with any other persistent issue, we see some of the same lingo and catchphrases still being used even as the years turn into decades:

 

 

Times-Colonist
July 26, 1986

Downtown firms willing to pay to fight riff-raff

Downtown businessmen are willing to pay extra taxes for a guarantee foot-patrolmen will be hired to clean the riff-raff off city streets, says a Victoria businessman.

"It is time we took our downtown back from this small segment of society," said Michael Williams.

Williams has warned city council that the situation is out of hand with unruly drunks screaming obscenities or vomiting in the street and holding the downtown core to ransom.

"I, as a businessman would be willing to have taxes increase on the condition that the taxes go to pay for 10 more officers on foot patrol day and night in the city," he said. "It's the crude lout-type element who have been allowed to get away with this nonsense. The police are driving around in cruisers and they are stretched to the limit."

Mayor Gretchen Brewin said she will consider the suggestion, but having 10 officers purely for downtown work runs contrary to how policing is organized, she said... "It would be difficult to have just a downtown force at the beck and call of downtown businesses," she said.

"I think foot patrols would be a step in the right direction because they would concentrate on the trouble spots," said Eaton's Vancouver Island general manager Reg Hind, whose store is regularly hit by vandalism. "I think we would be interested in looking at an additional charge for increased police coverage."

Marks & Spencer manager Jack Newton said he would welcome a task force to look into the problem and the cost of extra foot patrols.

The stigma of foot patrols being the lowliest police job must be corrected, Newton said. (aastra says: there's that magic word "stigma", all the way back in 1986) "Even if they park their cruiser and walk around the block for five minutes it would be good."

Michael Williams, a proponent of downtown revitalization, said council should forget revitalization and tourism until the street scene is cleaned up.

"We must ask ourselves as police and citizens if we have lost control of certain parts of the downtown area," he said. "The blame is on us. It's time to take it back in hand."

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
October 22, 1991

Police meet challenge of violence in the community

On the surface, Victoria seems like a gentle place, but in the last ten years, our police officers have been faced with increasing violence in almost every aspect of their job, says Inspector Brian Hayes, a 27-year veteran with the Victoria Police Department.

Oh, our city is a long way from being another crime-ridden Detroit (aastra says: aren't most places a long way from being the worst place?), but, as is so many growing cities, the trend towards increased violence is clearly there.

"We see it especially in young offenders, aged 15 and 16. These young people are committing muggings, especially in areas such as Beacon Hill Park and Dallas Road, and robberies which include pistol whipping store owners,"

"The increase in drug use and drug related crimes, also brings with it an increasing amount of violence in the drug world -- a lot of it unreported," he says. "A lot of the violence in the residential areas is drug related -- there are stabbings and beatings of people connected with the drug industry.

"With robberies in general there is a greater incidence of weapons displayed or actually fired, not only at banks, but at corner stores -- though no one has recently been injured,"

And part of that on-going pattern or trend toward violence includes homes being broken into for the purpose of sexual assault, often with the threat of a weapon or just physical violence,"

Then, of course, there are an increasing number of dust-ups after the bars let out and fights at after hours house parties, says Hayes.

Today's police officers clearly have their hands full.

Although they don't have a lot of violence directed specifically at them, they can be injured when trying to keep offenders under control, says Hayes "and they face many more situations which involved weapons, especially knives."

To meet the challenge of this increasing violence, the Victoria Police now send two-man cars or a back-up to a situation where they would have sent a one-man car 10 years ago...

And the department no longer sends out a lone officer on foot patrol on the night shift.

"People should also be aware that they may put themselves in a position they can't deal with if they walk in an area where people are being attacked, such as the Dallas Road footpath at night. They should use some common sense in avoiding situations where a crime can be committed against them..."

"The public can also take the lead in demanding that there be greater deterrents against violent crime by lobbying politicians," says Hayes. "The judicial system is not as supportive as we would like to see with regard to sentencing. Generally, the penalties are minor. There are no real deterrents to violence."

 

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
July 26, 1994

Not Only Athletes Come To Victoria for Gold
(The Business Voice - The Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce)

...Victoria Police Inspector Douglas Potentier says that deployment plans are in place to serve both Victoria citizens and handle Commonwealth Games needs.

Plans include these measures:

- All police officers will be in Victoria -- no holidays, no training programs.

- Community police officers will offer extra foot patrol downtown
(aastra wonders: why would extra foot patrols be necessary/beneficial during the Commonwealth Games but not at other times?)

- Street crime bike and plain clothes units will work late at night in addition to regular complements of officers

- The police's downtown command post will use fibre optics to monitor the Inner Harbour through closed circuit TV. With this technology, watchers can pan the area and zoom in on potential trouble spots

- Extra shifts will be on duty

- Finally, the extra police will help to control street people incidents in the downtown core.

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
Tuesday, August 5, 1997

Pounding the Downtown Beat
Just a quiet Friday night tending junkies, boozers and brawlers

The foot patrol is an experiment for the Victoria Police. McGregor and three other officers from the Street Crime Unit are teamed up with four other officers to walk the downtown for the summer. (aastra says: that's been a helluva long experiment if we're still talking about it in the summer of 2023 as if it were some innovative new thing)

McGregor and Tolmie take a zig-zag path. "When you walk the beat you find all the nooks and crannies and hiding places around downtown," McGregor says.

In his eight years as a member of the Victoria Police, McGregor says he's arrested some of the same people over and over again. He has also gained a good idea of who the players are in Victoria's cocaine and sex trade -- including people he believes were involved in several recent shootings on Victoria's streets.

"It's mostly criminals shooting criminals," says Tolmie.

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
July 9, 2001

Downtown: Foot patrols welcomed

...a barista at Blenz coffee shop at the corner of Douglas and Johnson has seen a lot since he started working downtown 18 months ago.

Last year, two police officers walked the beat and dropped into the store.

"They would always ask us how things were going and if there were any problems..."

(the Blenz barista) likes the more personable approach of having a police officer out of a car, checking on things on foot.

"When they're driving their car, they're just going to drive by. They're not going to notice or see what's going on. When we called them last summer, when they were on foot, they showed up a lot faster. If they were in a car, they'd take 45 minutes. On foot, they'd take 15."

Edited by aastra, 17 March 2024 - 10:57 AM.

[aastra]

Let the record show there were successful experiments with summer police foot patrols in 1997, 2007, and 2023. Also let the record show we don't seem to be able to keep our story straight about when the street issues started to become serious. No matter what year we happen to be living in, we always want to claim the problems only became severe just a few years earlier.

 

 

National Post
September 1, 2007

'Human Misery' In Downtown Streets Scaring Tourists Away

There is something wrong in this city. Blessed with natural good looks and a charming, historic downtown core, B.C.'s political and tourist capital is losing appeal, nonetheless. It's no secret why; local officials don't try to deny it. Junkies, panhandlers and drunks are growing in number and becoming more brazen. They are scaring people.

"The state of downtown is our number one issue," says Victoria Mayor Alan Lowe, sitting in an outdoor cafe. "It's the same for tourists and for those of us who live here. It's the fear of coming downtown."

Most Canadians probably still imagine Victoria as a quaint seaside community, tweedy, mild of climate, with a distinct British accent. It's still all of that. But there is more talk of "junkies" and "fear" and "disorder," from the Mayor on down, and, correspondingly, more worry about the city's reputation as a great place to live and to visit.

A senior provincial bureaucrat -- B.C.'s Auditor-General, no less -- is startled when addicts start injecting drugs outside his downtown office. In February, he fires off a letter to city council, demanding action, more police patrols.

Kenneth Kelly is general manager of the Downtown Victoria Business Association; his office faces directly on to Centennial Square. Mr. Kelly is an enthusiastic civic booster and points to many improvements the city has seen in recent years. Even so, tourism, the city's lifeblood, is flat.

He acknowledges that Victoria needs to clean up its act. "There are some days when I look out at the square and I think, 'This place is a zoo,' " Mr. Kelly says. "We should not be tolerating this."

Yet it is tolerated, to some degree. "What are the options?" shrugs Mayor Lowe. Yes, he would like to see more police officers on Victoria's streets. A summer pilot program that diverted more officers to downtown foot patrol was a success. But there's no money for more hires. And the Mayor thinks it important to "strike a balance" between law and order and respect for individual rights and freedoms.

"I don't think that grabbing people and throwing them in jail to rot is much of a solution," he says.

Neither, he adds, is ignoring the growing drug problem. "Letting people overdose in the streets? I don't think that's what we want, either."

Mr. Lowe has struck a task force to identify ways to deal with public disorder in the downtown core. An interim report is expected next month. He concedes it will take more months, perhaps years, to address the problem -- and, he expects, millions of dollars for more social housing, treatment and other forms of assistance to drug addicts, the mentally ill and the homeless.

He thinks Vancouver may be on the right track, offering such services as a supervised injection site where injection drug users can fix in a controlled, "safer" environment rather than in streets and alleyways. Mr. Lowe wants to open a "supervised consumption site" where users can both inject and smoke drugs.

But the Vancouver approach -- or experiment -- can't be called a success. That city's drug problem is as bad as ever. Some say it is getting worse, thanks in part to the increasing availability of user services, most of which are concentrated in the Downtown Eastside, where thousands of addicts live.

The drug scene in Victoria is not so concentrated; rather, it is spread throughout the downtown core, which is small and easily traversed on foot. There is no desire to even attempt to contain drug use in one area. "I don't want to give any one zone over to the junkies," the Mayor says.

So "the cage" on Store Street, where Mr. Gray smokes crack, is four blocks west of a busy needle exchange on Cormorant Street, which is nine blocks north of a drug haunt and former homeless encampment near Beacon Hill Park, which is a few blocks southeast of the Inner Harbour, where panhandlers roam, which is a couple of blocks from Douglas Street, where there is just about everything.

There is virtually no place free from street crime and public disorder in downtown Victoria. No one knows this any better than Inspector John Ducker, a 28-year veteran of the Victoria Police Department. He leads the Focused Enforcement Team, a group of 25 officers that patrols the downtown area. Half of the officers walk the beat at any given time.

His men and women are overworked; Victoria police officers already have one of the highest annual caseloads in the province, at about 90 each. The national average for municipal police officers is about half that.

"Twenty years ago, we were dealing with drunks hanging around the bus depot," Insp. Ducker says. "Now it's hundreds of drug users."

He does not have any proven answers. "Things have definitely become worse in just the last two years. Open, intravenous drug use is now common. It's upsetting to people who have lived here all their lives, and to people who come to visit because it's a nice place."

 

[aastra]

The 1980s called. They want their housing crisis back:

 

 

Times-Colonist
December 5, 1988

Songhees suggested as low-cost housing site

The Songhees land should be used to help alleviate Victoria's housing crisis, says Robin Blencoe (NDP - Victoria), the opposition's housing critic.

In letters to Mel Couvelier, finance minister and Terry Huberts, parks minister and a member of the Songhees advisory committee, Blencoe has called for a provincial social housing policy which would see at least 800 family and seniors housing units built in Victoria over the next two years.

"Songhees should be a project with a mix of housing. The major social housing agencies should have a vital role to play and Songhees could accommodate 800 units," Blencoe said in the letter.

The remaining 23 hectares of Songhees land is due to be sold soon by B.C. Enterprise Corp.

Blencoe in his letter said he wants a review of the Social Credit government's social housing policy and a review of the Songhees land sales.

"Your review, I would hope, would include writedowns of the land prices for social housing and long-term leases for social and seniors housing organizations," he said.

"Unless there is a dramatic shift in your policies we will miss a tremendous opportunity to ensure future housing on Songhees is available to all British Columbians."

To make Songhees into an enclave for the well-to-do would be socially irresponsible, he said.

Victoria's rental vacancy rate is currently 0.3 per cent. Families with children and seniors are finding it particularly hard to find suitable housing.

"But the land prices on Songhees will put it way out of reach of co-ops and organizations such as the Capital Regional Housing Corp., Pacifica Housing and the  Victoria Senior Citizens Housing Society," Blencoe said.

Allocations of social housing for Greater Victoria must also be increased, he said.

"Construction has fallen far short of the need."

In 1985 there were 180 family units built, the next year 85 units were built, and in 1987, although 130 units were allocated, only 69 were built, Blencoe said.

The allocation increased in 1988 but still falls far short of what is needed considering Victoria has the second lowest vacancy rate in the country...

Huberts said he had not yet seen Blencoe's letter.

"There is no doubt we have a social housing problem but whether the Songhees area is the most suitable for it, I really don't know at this time," Huberts said.

If Songhees was to be used and the land subsidized, the decision should have been made about three years ago when the project was in the planning stage rather than at this late date, Huberts said.

There is also the question of whether the province or the city should make cheap land available to help solve the housing crisis, he said.

Ald. Suzanne Hansen, city representative on the Songhees advisory committee, said: "I don't think the land itself would be subsidized but when it goes up for sale it will be open to any bids. There aren't any specific plans for social housing but neither are there any plans not to put it there."

It is possible social housing and co-operative housing groups, which are given special loan rates, could buy some of the Songhees land, she said.

A proposal to the province from a group of local businessmen to buy the land and issue general shares to Victorians, includes family housing around Victoria West Park, which would be subsidized by the moneymaking parts of the development.

Ian Bloomfield of Feldspar (Canada) Ltd., who spearheaded the proposal, also said he was worried that Songhees would become a high-priced condominium community.

[Nparker]

Why do socialists always portray condos as the enemy? I'd be willing to bet there are more issues per capita in social housing units, than in the equivalent number of privately owned dwellings.

[aastra]

That's a false stereotype. Many hardcore socialists really like the condos that they themselves own and rent out as pricey vacation rentals. It's all those other condos -- the ones they aren't personally profiting from -- that they take issue with.

[Mike K.]

Have we figured out yet what we had back then, that we don’t have now?

We had a crisis indeed, for the most desirable real-estate. What was it that we had from the 60s-2000s, though?

[aastra]

A highrise tower on the property of Christ Church Cathedral? Who could have predicted such a thing? Methinks such a high-density redevelopment in the 2020s would maybe-kinda-sorta call into question all of the modern development restrictions that were in effect in the cathedral district from the 1970s until now.

Note to the astute forumer who came up with the title for this thread: you deserve a donut. I'm starting to think it might actually be true: the more Victoria changes, the more it stays the same.

 

 

CHEK News
November 13, 2023

Cathedral to condos: Victoria church looking to build homes on property

The Christ Church Cathedral in Victoria is in the early stages of rezoning some of its property for mixed housing, which could hold thousands of residents.

The downtown cathedral has a long history dating back to the 1860s and is the episcopal seat of the Bishop of the Diocese of British Columbia. It also stands as a popular tourist attraction in the city, but now the cathedral wants to become a permanent home for around 1,500 people.

Costs are undetermined at the moment, but there will need to be at least $30 million allocated for seismic upgrades if the plan goes through.

 

--

 

 

Daily Colonist
January 25, 1969

Highrise May Adjoin Christ Church

Great changes are in the offing for Christ Church Cathedral and the surrounding property.

Ideas for developing of the church property range from a highrise apartment development attached to the cathedral to a complex of apartments at a lower height.

Whatever development is decided upon, it will probably call for the demolition of the bishop's house, the dean's house and Memorial Hall.

A change in zoning was made THIS WEEK by Victoria environment for Cathedral Hill Precinct by means of strict zoning regulations.

Brian Gingell, people's warden, said he would like to see a highrise development. He said it could be accomplished by leasing the ground to a development and management company for 99 years. The company would complete the cathedral and build the highrise tower, WHICH WOULD TIE IN WITH THE DESIGN OF THE CATHEDRAL. (aastra says: gack!)

The management company would look after the renting of apartments in the highrise.

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
January 27, 2005

Humboldt Valley plan goes to hearing
By Malcolm Curtis

A new plan for Victoria's Humboldt Valley, a 10-block section of Fairfield containing St. Ann's Academy, is going to a public hearing tonight.

A couple of zoning regulation bylaws aim to preserve the character of the historic Fairfield precinct... But developer Stan Sipos already wants an exception to a requirement limiting building heights on Burdett Avenue, across from Christ Church Cathedral, to four storeys.

Through his Cielo Properties company, Sipos is planning a 77-unit condo complex in two buildings on the former site of Mount St. Mary Hospital. One building would be five storeys high, the other four storeys.

Sipos said his Cathedral Hill project is smaller than the former hospital... An earlier draft plan for the Humboldt Valley allowed a seven-storey building, though council scaled that back in September.

 

--
 

 

Times-Colonist
December 10, 2005

Cathedral Hill
Developers seek OK to enlarge projects
By Malcolm Curtis

Developers proposing residential and office projects in Victoria's Cathedral Hill precinct want to build larger buildings than a neighbourhood plan recommends.

One of the projects is a revised scheme for the replacement of the Cherry Bank Hotel with a $15-million, eight-storey condominium complex on the hotel's parking lot.

Another is a bid by Bob and Wally Price, of the Price Brothers lock and alarm business, to build a $6-million five-storey office building on another parking lot at 854-856 Broughton Street.

Both projects are bigger than called for in the plan, approved by council in March 2004, for the area that covers six blocks around Christ Church Cathedral.

In the Cherry Bank case, hotel owners David and Charlotte Bowman envisage a 51-unit building...

The property is in an area designated for four- or five-storey buildings, but city planner Dennis Carlsen said the plan supports relaxation of heights in some cases.

Chris Denford (of Denford Construction) noted the Cherry Bank site slopes significantly, so the new building would not appear out of place.

Edited by aastra, 13 November 2023 - 11:20 PM.

[aastra]

It's late 2023 and the experts warn the dream of home ownership is continuing to slip away:

 

 

Canadian Press
November 23, 2023

"With affordability worsening, homelessness surging and the dream of home ownership continuing to slip away for many, the federal government must move more aggressively to solve the housing crisis," Tim Richter (CEO of Canadian Alliance to End Homelessnes) said in a statement.

 

--

 

 

Globe and Mail
December 2022

For a country that worships home ownership, we have a surprisingly diverse and fast-growing population of renters.

The percentage of people renting increased in every age group over the past decade, an RBC Economics report says. While young people and urbanites still dominate the demographics of renting, the biggest growth has come from baby boomers and residents of smaller cities.

The rise of renting is being driven by inflated house prices, immigration, an aging population and the growing number of people who live alone. At the worst possible time, renting has become the answer to all kinds of housing questions.

-- 
 

 

Globe and Mail
January 13, 2020

Canadian house prices: Be afraid. Be very afraid.

"Owning a home in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria, in particular, continues to be an impossible dream for many,"

--
 

 

Globe and Mail
May 11, 2018

Why Canada’s cult of home ownership is in trouble

--
 

 

Huffington Post
December 21, 2016

It's Time To Lower Your Home-Ownership Expectations (Again)

--

 

 

Times-Colonist (Canadian Press)
February 14, 1983

Home builders gathered last week to discuss how they could preserve the Canadian dream of home ownership, but there was some question as to whether that dream still existed.

Ontario Housing Minister Claude Bennett was among the pessimists.

"The time when you and I could say the words "home ownership" and know we were describing every Canadian's dream -- is gone."

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
May 9, 1981

This may well be the first time since the Depression that the average Canadian wage earner who does not already own a home will be unable to purchase one at an affordable price.

Government is the only power that can act to solve the problem of affordable housing...

The affordable housing crisis needs government initiative and leadership at the federal, provincial, and municipal levels...

(John Shields is president of the Victoria Innovative Housing Society...)

 

--

 

 

Daily Colonist (The Victoria Express)
December 6, 1973

Home-owners must give ground

Housing minister urges lifestyle changes

...there still is a place for the single family home, even though it may appear to be an inefficient dwelling unit.

While an increasing proportion of the population is living in multiple dwellings, British Columbians should still have the option to live in their own detached home "in the foreseeable future,"

 

--
 

 

Daily Colonist
September 14, 1969

The day of the single-family home, so long considered the natural aspiration of everyone, may be just about over in Canada, said Mr. Jackson (Philip G. Jackson, president of Victoria Real Estate Board).

--
 

 

Daily Colonist
October 15, 1967

...the prospects of the average working man owning his own home today are so remote as to be practically out of sight.

Edited by aastra, 25 November 2023 - 12:48 PM.

[aastra]

Here's another one from 1981:
 

 

Times-Colonist
September 5, 1981

Skyrocketing house prices and interest rates have condemned many young people to being tenants forever, never able to own their own homes.

 

--

Meanwhile, over in 2002:

 

 

Times-Colonist
April 13, 2002

Your First Home

...the overriding desire to own a home is riding on high octane, according to senior national analysts with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and local housing experts.

"The dream is very robust, very healthy and the number of housing starts in January and February are near levels we haven't seen since the early '90s," says Michel Laurence, principal adviser on economics and housing analyst for the national offices of CMHC.

...currently about 10 million Canadians own their own home...

Edited by aastra, 11 March 2024 - 07:53 PM.

[aastra]

Meanwhile, over in 1993:
 

 

Times-Colonist
December 30, 1993

More homes owned: The rise in the popularity of in-home entertainment may be a reflection of another trend. Statistics Canada discovered that more than 64 per cent of all Canadian households owned their home in 1993.

The trend to home ownership has been increasing since 1988, say agency analysts. In the seven years prior to that, home ownership had been declining.

[aastra]

News reporting is serious adult business, academic research is serious adult business, politics is serious adult business... so why am I laughing after reading this article? Because it's all so very ridiculous.

 

 

Times-Colonist
January 13, 1985

Rich homeowners benefit most, says professor

(Canadian Press) As far as home ownership in Canada is concerned, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

...(UBC Housing professor) David Hulchanski concluded in a recent study that while 62 per cent of the poorest Canadians owned their own homes in 1967, this had dropped to 43 per cent by 1981.

Over the same period, however, the number of Canadians in the top income brackets owning their own homes rose by 10 per cent. This meant that by 1981, 83 per cent of the top 20 per cent of Canadians owned their own homes.

There was little change in the middle income range.

Responding to the study, Johanne Godon, press secretary for federal Housing Minister William McKnight, said the minister is aware of declining home ownership among low-income groups.

"He regrets the trend to home ownership only in favor of high income groups of Canadians," she said.

 

--

 

Question: if owning your home is such a definitively meaningful milestone that every good citizen should always be aspiring toward... then why do so many people in the "top income brackets" choose not to own their homes? Haven't people with high incomes always been capable of owning their own homes? So why do so many of them choose not to do it? Maybe there's more to life than home ownership?

Edited by aastra, 22 January 2024 - 10:03 PM.

[aastra]

The home ownership dream was slipping away even as the rate of home ownership was continuing to increase. And home ownership was more likely among older people who had more money as versus among younger people who had less money. Pretty shocking revelation.
 

 

Times-Colonist
April 23, 2005

Home ownership boom restricted to boom generation

...home ownership fulfills both our aspirations and our needs. It is therefore not surprising that home ownership rates are at an all time high.

But not everyone has been able to jump into the housing market, even with the historically low interest rates enjoyed by borrowers in recent years.

...a record high 66 per cent of all Canadian households owned their homes in 2001, up from 62 per cent in 1981.

Although these numbers sound encouraging, its not good news for everyone...

The only increase among the rates of home ownership recorded by Statistics Canada has been for those ages 55 and older, where the ownership rate increased from 68 per cent in 1981 to 74 per cent in 2001.

Because this age group, which includes the oldest of the baby boomers, now makes up such a large proportion of the total population, its high rate of home ownership may mislead us to think that all age groups are equally fortunate.

Generally, young people entering the job market today face less promising job prospects, lower earnings and less job security than did previous generations.

The increasing proportion of Canadians who own their homes (either with or without a mortgage) makes it appear that home ownership is a realistic goal for all. That goal has been attainable for older Canadians, but it remains to be seen whether or not, over time, the same proportion of younger Canadians will be able to turn their dream of home ownership into a reality.

Edited by aastra, 22 January 2024 - 10:01 PM.

[aastra]

Listen to the experts. Even though they're always contradicting one another and even themselves.

 

 

Times-Colonist
March 12, 2000

To Own Or To Rent?

Buying a home is the smartest thing you can do with your money -- in the long term. In the short term, it might be the dumbest.

Such is the paradox that rules in the usual rent-versus-buy debate.

...most experts predict that homes won't increase in value by that much in the future.

Markets are stable -- meaning there isn't a bigger demand than supply - so any increase in a home's value will probably match inflation.

Under those conditions, home ownership is a form of enforced, low-return saving instead of the growth investment it was in the '80s and '90s.

 

--

 

 

Times-Colonist
October 17, 1999

Bank predicts home ownership will continue as a strong trend

Immigrants, young boomers and their children will keep housing markets hopping for several more decades, says a Royal Bank study released this month.

Several prominent economists and market watchers have predicted a collapse in home prices and a glut of monster homes as Canada's 9.8 million baby boomers begin trading down to smaller, cheaper homes in retirement.

But data show retirees continue to value home ownership and that many boomers are likely to delay retirement and work out of their homes.

Home ownership by retirees has been increasing steadily for the past quarter century.

Even if boomers do trade down in any large numbers, Canada's housing market will be buoyed by new immigrants, Gen Xers and school-age Canadians, says Derek Holt, Royal Bank senior economist and author of The Impact of Retirement on Property Markets.

The study affects more than 11.5 million Canadian homeowners and renters whose financial decisions could be influenced by fears of a real estate market meltdown within two decades, as predicted by Garth Turner, former national revenue minister, in his latest book, 2020: New Rules for the New Age.

Holt's study begins by trashing the record of demographers who failed to predict the baby boom when it was already under way in 1951 and 1953, who predicted that births would soar in forecasts as late as 1973, and who missed a considerable part of the boom-echo generation in predictions from 1983.

He says the potential population entering housing and consumer markets more than two or three decades into the future cannot be forecast with much accuracy because it entails predicting births starting next year and into the future.

Demand for living space and the size of homes in the future relies more on income growth, the distribution of wealth, and social preferences than a simple extrapolation of population trends.

In the past quarter century or so, those aged 65 to 69, 70 to 74, and above 75 in any particular year have increased their home ownership rates by about nine, 12, and nine percentage points respectively...

But what if the boomers do sell? While they represent the largest single age cohort in Canada, they have also given birth to the second largest.

These eight million echo boomers will move in and fill much of the void left by their parents, Holt says, and the difference is likely to be more than made up for by immigration.

Holt concludes that housing markets are likely to be poised for continued healthy growth in demand well into the future, after averaging out any cyclical influences.

"Views beyond 2030 must be tempered by the extraordinarily poor track record of demographers in predicting births, which makes it next to impossible to predict how many children the boom echo generation will have," Holt writes.

Edited by aastra, 25 November 2023 - 01:39 PM.

[aastra]

Guess the year of this letter-to-the-editor and you'll be entered in a raffle to win a complimentary glass of Mike K.'s famous apple cider* at the upcoming VV holiday bash.

 

*winner must provide his/her own glass

 

Victoria Times
November 13, 1979
(letter to the editor)
 

Housing Shortage

Recent media coverage of the housing crisis in Greater Victoria may help to convince elected representatives that we have a serious shortage of accommodation of all kinds. The option of home ownership is now denied to all but the affluent, and rental space is non-existent.

The inertia and lack of concern of municipal councils, the lack of planning and provision of services, the sustained efforts of some ratepayer groups and politicians to prevent home-seekers from having access to reasonably priced housing has already escalated lot prices to ridiculous levels.

Changes in taxation laws have wiped out funds for rental construction. Against that backdrop, interest rate increases to present levels may be the final blow to the housing and construction industry in terms of being able to make any real contribution to the housing needs of Canadians generally and in this area particularly.

...Canadians perhaps need to do a little soul-searching on the matter of what the democratic process is all about. Surely most of us would agree that we elect governments with the hope that they will promote policies which ensure that Canadians are not denied the necessities of life.

Right now we are in a situation in which large numbers of Canadians are being denied reasonable access to shelter. The majority of those who do not now own a home are denied access to home ownership. Despite all the glib talk about preservation of our lifestyles, our community character, and the family unit, the fact of the matter is that home ownership -- as an achievable option to most families -- is the biggest single factor in the preservation of those good things.

This is why the approaching municipal elections are so important. We need candidates who at least understand the housing problem and are prepared to grapple with it. We have to expose the hypocrisy of those... who violently oppose four units per acre in their area as high density or "ghetto" development.

We need candidates who realize that all urban areas must make some contribution to population growth. We need to expose the selfish myth which claims that smaller lot development will destroy the neighbourhood. Most of Victoria and the older part of Saanich was developed on smaller lots -- if that's such a disaster, why are we so concerned with its preservation?

Edited by aastra, 22 January 2024 - 09:38 PM.

[Mike K.]

Classic.

I guess everything we’re fretting over today was a problem during some other time. The opium dens and rowdy drunks of the late 1800s are 2023’s homeless drug addicts and rowdy teens. So naturally, the next step is to erect ‘no loitering’ signs.

[aastra]

^That letter to the editor is from November 13, 1979.

[aastra]

 

This is why the approaching municipal elections are so important. We need candidates who at least understand the housing problem and are prepared to grapple with it.

 

Methinks we can assume the author of that 1979 letter went on to be extremely satisfied with elections, politicians, political rhetoric in general, etc.

Although... in light of the fact that nothing has changed for the better during the intervening 44 years... I suppose it's possible he ended up being only somewhat satisfied.

[dasmo]

I was going to say 70s.

[aastra]

A term like "ratepayer" kind of gives it away. But even so, I thought much of it could be used today almost word for word.