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2019 Canadian Federal Election - general discussion


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#3721 lanforod

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 07:47 AM

^^^ that isn't going to do squat. Still have to qualify the mortgage amount, which still locks most people out of markets in demand. If you're making 80k a year in Victoria, you still can't afford to buy here, even with that program.


Edited by lanforod, 17 June 2019 - 07:48 AM.


#3722 Mike K.

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 07:49 AM

It’ll drive up the value of homes priced below $600,000, that’s what it’ll do.

That being said it’s not a bad program if you qualify. It’ll have a significantly greater effect in secondary markets where the price of real-estate is a fraction of what we encounter here on the coast or in Toronto, and where $400k can buy some serious home+land.
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#3723 lanforod

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 07:55 AM

^ yeah, it may. The issue is 'first time' part. Every current owner is ruled out; great to get other folks into the housing market, but we've had first time home owner benefits for a long time. I just don't see this affecting that many people.



#3724 Mike K.

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 07:59 AM

Also, you cannot have lived in a home owned by a spouse/partner/common-law individual within 4 years of applying for the program as a first-time buyer (which precludes couples from using this program to buy an investment, essentially).

 

I agree, the program is designed to limit first-time purchasers in many ways, and especially so when you can't put down more than 20%, which means your ability to make this program work in Victoria limits you considerably (i.e. you're earning $75k per year, which means you can only carry a mortgage under the program of $300k but you can't put down a larger down payment to buy a property valued above $375k, which is very, very limiting).


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#3725 RFS

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 12:58 PM

Should we start a predictions thread?

Who will take the whole thing?

Who will get the most seats in BC?

How many seats will go green on the island?

Will the conservatives get a single island seat?

I predict a minority, either conservative or liberal. I think the liberals will likely form a coalition government with the greens or ndp.

I predict the conservatives get the most seats in BC.


I predict 4 island ridings go green. Could be more though.
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#3726 Rob Randall

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 01:35 PM

Liberal majority. Despite Trudeau's woes I predict the NDP will shed seats that will get picked up evenly.



#3727 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 01:40 PM

Liberal majority. Despite Trudeau's woes I predict the NDP will shed seats that will get picked up evenly.

 

they will shed some. but don't forget diehard ndp voters are likely the most loyal / least likely to switch parties.



#3728 Mike K.

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 01:41 PM

I also think that the NDP are going to shed seats but I wouldn’t put it past the Greens to make major gains here.

Collins vs Kooy is going to be less of a battle for the Greens than most will want to admit. A councillor who has repeatedly stumbled and just barely gotten her feet wet as a councillor vs. an indigenous woman who is a respected professional and advocate for causes many NDP voters will be sympathetic towards. It’s jusf not much of a competition, I don’t think.

Singh has lead the party astray and everybody knows it.

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#3729 Rob Randall

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:11 PM

I think the NDP and Conservatives are parties that are searching for meaning in the 21st century. What exactly do they stand for today? Their hardcore supporters are dying of old age and they are not picking up youth at the same rate.



#3730 RFS

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:11 PM

Liberal majority. Despite Trudeau's woes I predict the NDP will shed seats that will get picked up evenly.

 

I feel like if an NDP voter didn't vote for Trudeau the first time, they probably won't this time either.



#3731 Rob Randall

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:13 PM

^I'm talking about the soft NDP vote that previously voted for other parties--the remnants of the powerful Jack Layton wave.



#3732 RFS

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:13 PM

For BC I predict 19/42 Cons, 11/42 Libs, 8/42 NDP, and 4/42 Green



#3733 RFS

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:19 PM

^I'm talking about the soft NDP vote that previously voted for other parties--the remnants of the powerful Jack Layton wave.

 

On Vancouver Island they'll go green.  In the rest of Canada they could go Liberal I suppose.  Although the Greens have improved everywhere.

 

I also feel like a Green seat is a de facto Liberal seat and that the Greens and Liberals are somewhat allied at the highest level.  I could definitely forsee a Trudeau/Elizabeth May coalition government...



#3734 Mike K.

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:28 PM

I think the NDP and Conservatives are parties that are searching for meaning in the 21st century. What exactly do they stand for today? Their hardcore supporters are dying of old age and they are not picking up youth at the same rate.

 

The Conservatives were never about the youth vote like the Liberals, Geens and NDP are. Their supporters tend to materialize once in the workforce, once they've had a family or started a small business.

 

But all that aside, conservatism is growing in Canada, not shrinking. Just consider the provincial political landscape in Canada which has swiftly moved to the right.


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#3735 RFS

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:32 PM

How about the fact that Atlantic Canada has 32 seats between them and in 2015 they ALL went liberal.. for comparison Alberta has only 34 seats and they have almost twice the population. Atlantic Canada should be amalgamated into a single province and given an appropriate number of seats for their population. 17 or so.
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#3736 Mike K.

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:40 PM

We need reform, that's for sure.


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#3737 FogPub

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 05:01 PM

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a Green or two come out of the Maritimes.  I think the big story this election, however, will be an abysmally low turnout; because unless a brand new party - one with intelligence, a moderate and well-thought-out platform, and a nationwide base - arises out of nowhere to capture people's interest and imagination a whole lot of people aren't going to bother voting.

 

The old parties (Lib-Con-NDP) have simply lost touch, and the Greens are perceived as being too narrow in focus.


Edited by FogPub, 19 June 2019 - 05:02 PM.


#3738 Tom Braybrook

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 06:45 PM

i predict all the seats in b.c. (and thus the island) are irrelevant and the election will, once again, be over long before the polls close in victoria

 

as always, everything the liberal government does is about ontario and quebec, and to a lesser extent the maritimes...that's where the seats are up for grabs , 66% of seats are east of manitoba

 

they clearly have written off b.c as wacky ndp OR solid con seats, and never have a chance in alberta

 

their focus is entirely on taking back seats lost to the ndp in quebec and picking up seats in ontario suburbs

 

province Pop % seats Seat %         British Columbia 13.31% 42 12.54% Alberta 11.00% 34 10.15% Saskatchewan 3.08% 14 4.18% Manitoba 3.64% 14 4.18% Ontario 38.91% 121 36.12% Quebec 23.22% 78 23.28% New Brunswick 2.20% 10 2.99% Nova Scotia 2.75% 11 3.28% Prince Edward Island 0.42% 4 1.19% Newf and Labrador 1.49% 7 2.09% Provincial total 100.00% 335 100.00% Yukon   1   Northwest Territories 1 Nunavut 1 Total 338

#3739 Matt R.

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 07:33 PM

A little birdy has told me the Cons might be running someone a little younger this time around...

Matt.

#3740 RFS

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 07:49 PM

A little birdy has told me the Cons might be running someone a little younger this time around...

Matt.


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