5846 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

it will a bit for sure. might take a day to show in the polls.

[shoeflack]

I think most people who would have been impacted by the Obama news were probably too distracted by Jennifer Aniston joining Instagram to notice anything else happening online.

[Victoria Watcher]

she got over a million followers right away.

[Love the rock]

I had no idea Elisabeth May was born in the US .
Does she still hold US citizenship.

[RFS]

So if any popular person mentions their support of a particular party/candidate (no matter how obvious it was that's where they would lean) it's interfering with the election?

From the globe and mail:

https://www.theglobe...o-the-liberals/

'The Obama intrusion, unprecedented even for a former president, constitutes unjustified meddling. “The world needs his progressive leadership now,” Mr. Obama said of Mr. Trudeau, “and I hope our neighbours to the north support him for another term.” That it came from someone such as Mr. Obama, who has a reputation for playing by the norms, makes it all the more surprising.

The move, which justifiably infuriates Conservatives, is a gift for the Liberals who could receive a crucial shot of momentum from it in these, the closing days of a very tight race.

What gives the endorsement added importance is Mr. Obama’s high standing in Canada. Polls have always shown him to be admired among a broad swath of the population, not just progressives.'

[shoeflack]

Certainly not at the same level, but I didn't see any Conservatives up in arms when former Governor of Florida and then US Republican Presidential candidate Jeb Bush endorsed Stephen Harper in 2015. And I'm sure lots of Liberals complained about that back then.

 

Standard operating procedure in an election. What benefits you is no big deal, what doesn't is somehow a violation of some election law.

[FogPub]

Those numbers in that graph on the previous page make a damn good argument for proportional representation:

 

Greens: 8.4%, projected seat range 1 to 6.

Bloc Q: 6.9%, projected seat range 22 to 49.

 

Sigh.

[RFS]

Those numbers in that graph on the previous page make a damn good argument for proportional representation:
 
Greens: 8.4%, projected seat range 1 to 6.
Bloc Q: 6.9%, projected seat range 22 to 49.
 
Sigh.

This is the bigger problem in my opinion

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[Victoria Watcher]

The telephone survey of 1,028 randomly selected Canadian adults was conducted Thursday afternoon and evening. Forum says its results are considered accurate within a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

 

The New Democratic Party and its leader Jagmeet Singh are making big gains in popular support and favourability in the final days of the campaign, a new poll suggests.

 

The latest telephone survey from Forum Research shows a significant boost in voting intentions for the NDP from a similar poll the firm conducted nine days earlier — a jump from 12 per cent to 20 per cent among decided voters.

At the same time, support for the Conservatives dropped from 35 per cent to 29 per cent, placing Andrew Scheer’s party in a virtual tie with the Liberals, who rose from 28 per cent to 30 per cent support in the latest poll.

 

 

https://www.thestar....meet-singh.html

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 17 October 2019 - 02:52 PM.

[Tom Braybrook]

This is the bigger problem in my opinion

so the first four numbers are average per seat based on your chart, for the rest i used wikipedia 2018 population numbers and provincial seats

 

canada average

ontario average

bc average

pei average

manitoba average

saskatchewan average

 

then i got bored - the point is your selective chart correctly points out that some maritime provinces are over-represented, and that alberta and bc are under-represented

 

but you will notice that ontario is also under-represented

while quebec is actually right on the average

pei, manitoba, saskatchewan are all over-represented

 

feel free to check the number on NB, YK, NU, and so on - the results will be much the same

 

the reason for my post is that yours came across as slightly Quebec bashing, which i know is a favourite sport out here - but sadly, in this case, misguided

 

the numbers, or as some call them - facts, point out the fallacy in you chart - i am a big fan of showing ALL the data when i am trying to make a point (except as i mentioned earlier - i got bored!) 

 

cheers

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[Victoria Watcher]

ben shapiro on obama's endorsement:

 

https://youtu.be/2Ji8IjRcxD8?t=2632

[Victoria Watcher]

 

 

https://newsinteract...tracker/canada/

[Mike K.]

I’m seeing a significant increase in “a vote for the NDP or Greens is a vote for the Cons” rhetoric on social media.

[Cats4Hire]

Probably because neither party is going to win and if those people voted for a big 2 it would probably be Liberal.
I never got that argument though. We don't know their context for voting NDP/Green. What if they hate both Scheer and Trudeau and refuse to vote for them so go somewhere else to try and get a minority?

It's just desperation from Liberals seeing how close it is.

[Mike K.]

Adam Stirling brought up a very good point on this morning's roundtable discussion about our four ridings.

 

Nikki Macdonald has deep roots in the Liberal Party, so much so that none other than Chretien has endorsed her. Macdonald also represents the sort of Candidate Victoria Liberal supporters can get behind, and someone who is acutely aware of proper governance and would not stand for the sort of lane veering that has occurred at Victoria's council table this year.

 

So in short, Stirling believes that Macdonald's presence in this election could give the Liberals a win, or at the very least, position the Liberals as the #2 party in Victoria behind the Greens.

 

IMO, Collins doesn't have a hope, while Kooy is a natural alternative to the NDP, but her vs. someone like Macdonald is indeed too close to call.

 

That being said, the polling in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke has the four candidates literally neck-to-neck.

[jasmineshinga]

Surprising considering Esq-S-S had ten candidates on the ballot (3! independents) this time 'round. I would have expected the votes to be more spread out if so many thought they had a shot.

[rjag]

So if Ms May doesnt resonate and grow her seats does she stay on? My gut is she may win at most 2 seats (possible Kooy) so what does that say for May and the Green Party future at the Federal level?

[Victoria Watcher]

So if Ms May doesnt resonate and grow her seats does she stay on? My gut is she may win at most 2 seats (possible Kooy) so what does that say for May and the Green Party future at the Federal level?

 

she is newly married*. i bet she quits.

 

*trivia she married margot kidder's brother.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 18 October 2019 - 10:35 AM.

[JimV]

So if Ms May doesnt resonate and grow her seats does she stay on? My gut is she may win at most 2 seats (possible Kooy) so what does that say for May and the Green Party future at the Federal level?

I know a former Green supporter who is so alarmed at her extremist positions he's voting for someone else (probably NDP.) I don't know how common that reaction is but I do think that outside of a few small pockets Green support is the classical "mile wide and an inch deep". I agree with you that it is not likely to translate into many seats.

On the other hand, she remains very popular among some voters who's attachment to reality is tenuous. And what else is she going to do? Like the shabby opportunist Collins she may calculate that the $150K parliamentary salary (plus perks) is too good to pass up.

Either way, I doubt the Greens will have much influence even in a minority government. Both the Bloc and the NDP are the likelier dance partners.

[RFS]

I know a former Green supporter who is so alarmed at her extremist positions he's voting for someone else (probably NDP.) I don't know how common that reaction is but I do think that outside of a few small pockets Green support is the classical "mile wide and an inch deep". I agree with you that it is not likely to translate into many seats.

On the other hand, she remains very popular among some voters who's attachment to reality is tenuous. And what else is she going to do? Like the shabby opportunist Collins she may calculate that the $150K parliamentary salary (plus perks) is too good to pass up.

Either way, I doubt the Greens will have much influence even in a minority government. Both the Bloc and the NDP are the likelier dance partners.

I don’t really see how the NDP are any less extreme than the greens? They both want to end the oil and gas industry in Canada and they both think the planet is going to die if we don’t. The NDP have moved very far left on this issue in the last decade/s