5846 replies to this topic

[shoeflack]

Looking at the Victoria results, Macdonald’s 15,686 votes likely gave Collins the win. Collins beat Kooy with 23,290 votes vs Kooy’s 20,846.

Rankin won in 2015 with 30,397 votes. Collins lost the NDP 7,000 votes.

 

I don't think that's the case. Macdonald took away from the NDP far more than the Greens. If anything, she almost cost the NDP the riding.

 

Kooy and the Greens dropped 3,000 votes from 2015, while the Liberals jumped 7,000 votes. I would say that the majority of that Liberal jump came from people who voted NDP last election.

[RFS]

Conservatives get the most votes, liberals get the most seats

My official prediction:

155 lib, 115 CPC, 35 NDP, 30 BQ, 2 Green, 1 PPC

I was close. I over estimated NDP and slightly underestimated cons.

[Kapten Kapsell]

I didn't quite that far, but locally I thought the NDP would be unseated by the Greens. And it would have happened had Nikki Macdonald not been such a strong candidate for the party, effectively doubling support from the last time a Liberal ran (2011).

 

My best guess is that national media attention on the prospects of a coalition government- or a 'confidence and supply agreement' (like the UK Tories have with the Democratic Unionist Party or the BC NDP has with the BC Greens) helped Collins in the final days of the election as voters felt that a Trudeau minority government might seek help from the NDP, so that increased the attractiveness of the NDP option.

 

The Liberals definitely did better than they did in 2011 in the Victoria riding, but 2011 was a bad year for the Liberals nationally and it was (I think) their worst showing in Parliament since (I think) Mulroney's first win in 1984.  But you're right:  McDonald showed strength as a candidate, so perhaps she will run again.  It would be an interesting twist of fate if she runs for (and wins) Laurel Collins' council seat.

Edited by Kapten Kapsell, 22 October 2019 - 08:08 AM.

[shoeflack]

McDonald showed strength as a candidate, so perhaps she will run again.  It would be an interesting twist of fate if she runs for (and wins) Laurel Collins' council seat.

 

Would she even consider that? She seems like a Fed through and through. Not sure she would want to deal with the small-P trying to be be big-P squabbles of Lisa, Ben, and co.

[Mike K.]

I don't think that's the case. Macdonald took away from the NDP far more than the Greens. If anything, she almost cost the NDP the riding.

Kooy and the Greens dropped 3,000 votes from 2015, while the Liberals jumped 7,000 votes. I would say that the majority of that Liberal jump came from people who voted NDP last election.

Aren’t we saying the same thing? Macdonald robbed Kooy of the win by shifting NDP and some Green support to the Liberals, but giving Collins a win despite her pulling the lowest numbers for an NDP candidate in Victoria since 2004.

By-the-numbers this was the biggest tremor the NDP has seen since they established power in 2006.

[lanforod]

 screenshot-twitter.com-2019.10.22-09_53_22.png

 

No way Trump wrote that. Who got his Twitter password?

[Mike K.]

Yup, not a chance.

[Rob Randall]

It's genuine but probably written by his aide Scavino. I don't think Trump's ever used the word "betterment".

[RFS]

Vote Wexit's Facebook page went from a few thousand members to over 150k overnight and their website votewexit.com has crashed and is down due to all the traffic

[FogPub]

I was close. I over estimated NDP and slightly underestimated cons.

I overestimated Cons and NDP, underestimated Lib, got close (or bang on) for the rest. (my forecast was Lib-135 Con-131 NDP-35 BQ-32 Grn-4 PPC-0 Oth-1)

Edited by FogPub, 22 October 2019 - 11:52 AM.

[Jackerbie]

Vote Wexit's Facebook page went from a few thousand members to over 150k overnight and their website votewexit.com has crashed and is down due to all the traffic

 

OK, so someone form a Western Bloq, run in the next election, and we'll go from there. The CPC won 121 seats, but I doubt they have 121 MPs who support western separatism.

[RFS]

OK, so someone form a Western Bloq, run in the next election, and we'll go from there. The CPC won 121 seats, but I doubt they have 121 MPs who support western separatism.

The thing is, you don't actually need to seperate. You just use it as a bluff like Quebec does to great effect. I could definitely see a regional western party with a focus on pipelines getting 60-70 seats. Then offer power to whichever party will give the west the pipelines and other infrastructure. That's all they really want. The seperation stuff is just frustration.

[Kapten Kapsell]

The irony of the "Wexit Movement", such as it is, is that it is likely to hurt the Tories in other provinces if it gains much steam.  Voters in provinces outside of SK and AB would have less reason to support the Tories in the next election if there's a sense that Scheer and the party brass are tolerating such a thing...

[Cats4Hire]

OK, so someone form a Western Bloq,

Wasn't that essentially what the Reform Party was? I don't think they wanted separation but they were all about giving the west a voice.

[Hotel Mike]

No reason to get worked up about 149k bots.

[lanforod]

No reason to get worked up about 149k bots.

 

I have a lot of friends and family in Alberta. I don't think these are bots.

[G-Man]

It would have very little traction in BC so really it would just obliterate the Conservatives. Liberals would love to have the reform back.

[lanforod]

It would have very little traction in BC so really it would just obliterate the Conservatives. Liberals would love to have the reform back.

 

In south west BC anyways. I think North and East would find a lot of sympathy for that.

[RFS]

It would have very little traction in BC so really it would just obliterate the Conservatives. Liberals would love to have the reform back.

The liberals are happy to give concessions and special treatment to the Quebec bloc. Why not a western bloc? The west doesn't owe the conservative party their vote

[lanforod]

The problem is, we'd just have one big party - Liberals, and 5-6 parties with less than 60 seats. Whats the point of becoming Italy?

The Liberals wouldn't have to play ball with a western bloc party at all. They don't have to now. Pretty much all of those seats would come at the expense of the Tories.