5846 replies to this topic

[RFS]

So shall we start taking predictions? McKay seems like the obvious front runner and has re-entered the public spotlight recently. I feel like he would do well. He comes across as reasonably intelligent and has an Iranian super model wife.

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[Mike K.]

Considering how alienated the west feels, now would be the time to elevate another Alberta-based leader, would it not?

[RFS]

Considering how alienated the west feels, now would be the time to elevate another Alberta-based leader, would it not?

I don't think the west cares where the leader comes from, as long as they actually listen and work on western issues like pipelines and carbon taxes.

[Kapten Kapsell]

Considering how alienated the west feels, now would be the time to elevate another Alberta-based leader, would it not?

The Cons lost the last election, in part, because they could not appeal to enough voters in Ontario and Quebec.  A leader from the east might be able to appeal to voters there but, regardless of who it is, the first thing that any new Federal Tory leader who wants to win an election should do is shoot down any talk of "Wexit" or "Alberta Separation."  Giving a platform to this element would simply reinforce the image of the Tories as a 'regional' party and turn off potential voters in the east.

 

One could argue that the Libs also became a 'regional' party after the last election, but the election proved that you can lose every seat in AB and SK and still form government...

[Mike K.]

The west doesn't want another Quebecois power broker or a player from the east (MacKay).

 

The future of the Conservatives is out west, and voters know that.

 

A Scheer vs. MacKay poll among Conservative voters showed massive support for Scheer. Harper was the only one higher on the list than Scheer. And the guy's retired.

 

Among Conservative voters only, Scheer has far more support than MacKay at 68-32, according to the poll. Harper is the only potential candidate in the poll who fared better than Scheer among Conservative voters. - https://nationalpost...-leadership-bid

 

[RFS]

The west doesn't want another Quebecois power broker or a player from the east (McKay).

The future of the Conservatives is out west, and voters know that.

A Scheer vs. McKay poll among Conservative voters showed massive support for Scheer. Harper was the only one higher on the list than Scheer. And the guy's retired.

I really think the importance of the province the leader is from is very overstated. Bernier had more support in Alberta than pretty much anywhere else and he could barely speak coherent English. At the end of the day Alberta and the West just want a friendly and cooperative government that will protect their industries and livelihoods. I think conservatives in general care more about winning than the residence of the leader.

[Kapten Kapsell]

Not all of the west is 'alienated' either; the NDP and Liberals did well enough in the City of Vancouver, several Vancouver suburbs, Vancouver Island, and the Winnipeg area in the last election... 

[RFS]

Not all of the west is 'alienated' either; the NDP and Liberals did well enough in the City of Vancouver, several Vancouver suburbs, Vancouver Island, and the Winnipeg area in the last election...

They lost votes/seats in every western province and were completely shut out of two. For sure alienation is strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but with good reason

[Kapten Kapsell]

They lost votes/seats in every western province and were completely shut out of two. For sure alienation is strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but with good reason

On the flip side, the Tories (under Scheer) showed that they had trouble winning seats in many of the largest urban centres in Canada.  They were completely shut out of Vancouver proper, Montreal proper, and Toronto proper, and they were shut out of many mid-sized cities and suburbs too including Winnipeg and Mississauga (both of which exceed 700,000 people), though they of course won seats in the traditional strongholds of Calgary, Edmonton, and Quebec City.  I just think that, if the Tories can't win seats in the cities mentioned above, they might have a hard time forming the next government (assuming a relatively similar vote distribution next time around).

[Mike K.]

They would have fared even worse under Bernier who took a stance far more at-odds with urbanites than Scheer.

[Victoria Watcher]

scheers wife is likely behind his decision.

[Kapten Kapsell]

But even Harper had more appeal in urban areas compared to Scheer, i.e. several ridings in the GTA that went to Harper in past elections stayed with Trudeau, despite the fact that Trudeau's overall popularity decreased from the 2015 election...

[RFS]

Urban/rural divide is nothing new. Scheer lost because voters didn't like him on a gut feeling level. And clearly they were right based on this dipping into the party fund stuff. Scheer was a weak candidate, plain and simple. He only did as well as he did because the Prairies are desperate for change. They'd have voted for anyone that will help them.

I predict they'll pick McKay, run him as a moderate red Tory, he'll go to the pride parades etc, stay the course on pipelines, and they'll pick up a majority.

[Victoria Watcher]

his wife was 2 when she moved here. almost all the things she has done - as a Canadian - she would not have been permitted to do in Iran.

[Kapten Kapsell]

Well, one thing I have in common with Scheer is dual US/Canadian citizenship, and now that he's stepped down as party leader I do imagine he may stop the renunciation process...

[Mike K.]

Urban/rural divide is nothing new. Scheer lost because voters didn't like him on a gut feeling level. And clearly they were right based on this dipping into the party fund stuff. Scheer was a weak candidate, plain and simple. He only did as well as he did because the Prairies are desperate for change. They'd have voted for anyone that will help them.

I predict they'll pick McKay, run him as a moderate red Tory, he'll go to the pride parades etc, stay the course on pipelines, and they'll pick up a majority.

 

I think it had more to do with Scheer being branded by the media and his opponents as a hardcore right-winger furthering Harper's agenda.

 

Remember what Unifor's #1 goal was? To destroy Scheer.

 

Scheer was a leader that wasn't threatening in his demeanour. He smiled a lot, and was quick on his toes. That actually resonated with people who saw him as a moderate figure from a humble background, with a big family, etc., despite the attacks on him and his persona.

[Rob Randall]

Sources told the National Post that the resignation was prompted by the revelation that Scheer was using money from the Conservative Party to pay for his children’s private school tuition, which was first reported Thursday morning by Global News.

 

 

So what's the lesson here? If you're going to cheat, don't do like Trudeau; keep it close to home and think of the children? 

[North Shore]

I’m not so sure that MacKay is the greatest choice...a lot of people (usual stats) still dislike him for backstabbing David Orchard, and bringing Mr. Harper to power...

[RFS]

I’m not so sure that MacKay is the greatest choice...a lot of people (usual stats) still dislike him for backstabbing David Orchard, and bringing Mr. Harper to power...

Conservatives venerate Harper by and large. I don't think that ancient history would have an impact among likely conservative voters.

[RFS]

I think it had more to do with Scheer being branded by the media and his opponents as a hardcore right-winger furthering Harper's agenda.

Remember what Unifor's #1 goal was? To destroy Scheer.

Scheer was a leader that wasn't threatening in his demeanour. He smiled a lot, and was quick on his toes. That actually resonated with people who saw him as a moderate figure from a humble background, with a big family, etc., despite the attacks on him and his persona.

I'm sure it didn't help, but in general he wasn't charismatic and came across as weak. He got absolutely dominated in every interview he ever did. He tried too hard to be soft spoken and nice but it just didn't come across well.